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The big talking point of this episode of News Today is Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to New Delhi, his first since the start of the Ukraine war.
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00:00Good evening, hello and welcome. You're with the news today. This is your prime time destination. News, newsmakers, talking points and we have plenty on the show tonight. That big visit of the Russian President Vladimir Putin begins tomorrow in the national capital. We'll have a lot to talk about. Remember India today is getting a world exclusive on Vladimir Putin. More on that is Russia still India's all-weather friend.
00:26It will also raise the other big issue which concerns the rupee. The rupee has gone to an all-time low. What does it mean for the Indian economy? So there's plenty as always on the news today. But first, it's time for the nine headlines at nine tonight.
00:42Amidst uproar, the center's big turn on Sanchar Saathi app removes the mandatory pre-installation of the app, asserts that Sanchar Saathi was never meant to snoop on citizens but to only help them. Opposition calls it the rollback sarkar.
01:02Rupee falls to an all-time low, crosses the 90 mark against the US dollar for the first time amidst weak trade and portfolio flows. But exporters could benefit.
01:18At least 38 Indigo flights delayed and cancelled due to check-in disruptions across India. Chaotic seats at Hyderabad Airport. Indigo says trying to resolve the issue soon.
01:32A fresh war of words this time over Rajnath Singh's comments over Nehru funding the Babri Masjid. Congress slams him, asks Defense Minister to show proof to back his claim. Rajnath had claimed Nehru aimed to build a Babri Masjid with government funds.
01:52The Delhi government forms a committee to monitor pollution levels. Chief Minister Rekha Gupta to head the panel comprising of experts and scientists.
02:05Amid slogan-earing Karnataka Chief Minister Sidharamaya meets Gandhi emissary KC Venugopal in Mangaluru, D.K. Shiv Kumar arrives in Delhi for a wedding event. No sign yet of what happens next in the Karnataka Game of Thrones.
02:22Madurai Temple showdown peaks. Hindu groups clash with police over lighting lamp at a contentious spot. Despite Madras High Court order, he and cops stop the devotees.
02:35The first arrest takes place in the controversial land deal in Pune, Sheetal Tejwani, legal representative of a firm in which Ajit Pawar's son is the main shareholder, is taken into custody.
02:51Another match, another hundred for Virat Kohli in ODI cricket scores his 84th international century versus South Africa in rival.
03:21First, of course, to bring you a very important update. Remember, we are tracking that big visit of the Russian President Vladimir Putin, who will arrive in the national capital today, his first visit to the country since the Ukraine war.
03:35And an important update. Remember, India Today had promised you an exclusive interview, a world exclusive with the President of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin, just a day before he arrives in India for that awaited bilateral meet with Prime Minister Modi.
03:50That interview was delayed today because of prior commitments of the Russian President. But we can now confirm that the interview has begun and will come to you soon on India Today TV.
04:02Just to give you a preview, my colleagues, Geeta Mohan and Anjana Om Kashyap are in Moscow and they have this update for you.
04:32That's right. We are here at the Ekaterina Hall and that's the hot seat. We promised you an interview and the biggest interview not just for us.
05:02of the year, but maybe years. And this interview is going to happen no matter what. We promised 9pm and there is a delay because President Putin is occupied with very important meetings yesterday and today.
05:18We'll talk about that when he comes to that hot seat. Stay tuned. Keep watching. Don't miss the biggest interview of the year. Stay tuned to Archduk and India Today.
05:32Remember, all eyes are on Vladimir Putin as he arrives in Delhi. Remember, the Russia-Ukraine war still shadows this visit to the country.
05:41Ahead of this visit, Russia's state Duma has cleared the defense pack, which will give India and Russia shared access to ports, airspace and military logistics.
05:53Why is this such an important visit at the time at which it's taking place?
05:57That's going to be our top focus for now. Take a look at this report.
06:27And just hours before the ratification, President Vladimir Putin underscored the importance of India in Moscow's global strategy.
06:31And just hours before the ratification, President Vladimir Putin underscored the importance of India in Moscow's global strategy.
06:39We will fulfill our obligations to foreign partners and expand cooperation with those countries that are in the world.
06:44And just hours before the ratification, President Vladimir Putin underscored the importance of India in Moscow's global strategy.
06:58We will fulfill our obligations to foreign partners and expand cooperation with those countries that are interested in it.
07:11As I have already said, the vast majority of countries act rationally and pragmatically.
07:16Over the past three years, we have significantly increased our trade volume with them.
07:21First and foremost, I mean our key partners, China and India, with whom we share many years of friendship and strategic cooperation.
07:30Ahead of the visit, Kremlin spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, also hinted at big defense conversations, including renewed discussions around the SU-57 next generation fighter joint aerospace projects.
07:49So, SU-57s, best plane in the world, best plane in the world, yes, it's not over-exaggeration, it's the best plane in the world, and the issue of SU-57s certainly will be on the agenda during the coming visit.
08:11So, let's not speak about the details.
08:14There are lots of competitors in the world, and some of the competitors are not, let's say, sticking their business to international law.
08:28And this is where the timing matters.
08:32Putin's trip comes as India-U.S. ties face their worst turbulence in nearly 20 years,
08:38with Washington slapping 50% tariffs on Indian goods, including 25% punitive levies on India's Russian oil imports.
08:49It also comes as Russia and the U.S. negotiate the revised Trump-framed 19-point peace plan for Ukraine,
08:56putting New Delhi right in the middle of a shifting global triangle.
09:00Washington, Moscow and New Delhi.
09:04A surprise ratification in Moscow, strong words from the Kremlin, and a hardening U.S. line,
09:11all setting the stage for one of the most keenly watched India-Russia summits in years.
09:17Bureau Report, India Today.
09:20And joining me now are special guests on that big issue with the big questions.
09:29Is India still Russia's all-weather friend?
09:33Should we treat Moscow as an all-weather friend?
09:36Can India really afford at this moment in global conflicts to put all their eggs in Putin's basket?
09:42Does India have any role to play at all in ending the Russia-Ukraine war?
09:48And how can India reduce its massive trade deficit with Russia?
09:52Those are some of the questions we'll put to you.
09:54Joining us are our special guests.
09:56Ajay Malhotra is former Indian ambassador to Russia.
09:59Alexei Zakharov is fellow at the Observer Research Foundation.
10:03Brahma Chalani, strategic affairs expert and former advisor to India's National Security Council.
10:09And Rory Suchet is a presenter with Russia Today.
10:12Remember, RT India will be inaugurated by President Putin on his visit here.
10:17Appreciate all of you joining us here on the show today.
10:20Let me come first to you Ajay Malhotra.
10:22Ambassador Malhotra, what do you see as really why is this visit so important coming at a time
10:30when we are not seeing an early end, as of now at least, to the Russia-Ukraine war?
10:37Well, this visit, the timing of this visit is not linked with the Russia-Ukraine war at all.
10:45This is an annual summit planned well in advance.
10:49It traditionally takes place in December.
10:51So, to me, there's no surprise at all.
10:55In the past, from the Russian side, they always come in December.
10:59I don't think there have been many exceptions to that.
11:02So, I don't see any change in that approach.
11:05If you look at why now…
11:08But Mr. Putin has… Mr. Putin chose not…
11:11Since the war, since the war, this is his first visit to India.
11:15In that context, does that shadow the visit in any way?
11:20I don't think so.
11:21Because last year, we visited, it's by rotation.
11:25The previous year, in 2023, there was a miss, because days couldn't be worked out.
11:30It might have been mutually agreed to let that pass, and that's the way it was.
11:37But that is the only occasion when they have missed out, linked also earlier with COVID.
11:42But otherwise, there's been a tradition of these visits, which I don't think you've had with any other country,
11:49whereas regularly since the year 2000, with, as I said, the COVID and one other occasion,
11:55you've had these regular in- and outgoing visits from both sides.
11:59Let me get a Russian perspective for a moment.
12:06Alexei Zakharov, how… what is the importance Russia attaches to its relationship with India,
12:12given the fact that Russia has found itself isolated within Europe.
12:16Large parts of Europe today are questioning Russia for what it's done in Ukraine.
12:21We've even seen three ambassadors write an article in an Indian newspaper just two days ago.
12:28Then the Russian ambassador hits back.
12:30But the truth of the matter is, does Russia see India also as an all-weather friend, as India sees Moscow?
12:36Yeah, I think that since the war in Ukraine, India's significance for Russian foreign policy only increased.
12:45And India has always been a long-standing friend, a strategic partner.
12:50But after being cut off from the European market and isolated from the West politically,
12:56I think that Russia started to re-evaluate the partnership and it started to appreciate more India as a largest market.
13:05So we could see a lot of Russian effort to boost economic ties, to explore Indian market.
13:14There have been many Russian businesses making inroads into the Indian market.
13:19And there have been attempts from the Russian side to facilitate trading economic cooperation
13:26through introducing different payment mechanisms, through increasing investment into the Indian economy.
13:32So in that sense, I think that India's importance, India's alliance has only grown further.
13:42You know, it's interesting you're focusing on the trade aspect because India has a ballooning trade deficit at the moment with Russia.
13:49Brahma Chalani, do you believe that is one of India's concerns or is India looking at Russia primarily,
13:55particularly in this region and Moscow as defense partners?
13:59That's where the real focus remains. Will it expand beyond that?
14:04Do you see actually a stronger relationship building given also the ties that Russia has with China?
14:11Russia has also been signing defense deals with Pakistan in the recent time.
14:16How do you see the Russia-India relationship? Does it go beyond defense cooperation?
14:23The relationship with Russia, Rajdeep, is very important both for India's strategic interests
14:29and for better balance and greater maneuverability in Indian foreign policy.
14:35Without damaging the relationship with the U.S., which is equally important for India,
14:41India needs to uphold its special and privileged partnership with Russia.
14:47India needs both the U.S. and Russia to counter China, to answer your question on China.
14:53So India needs both the U.S. and Russia to counter China.
14:56The constant challenge for India is to carefully balance its foreign policy between Washington and Moscow
15:04so as to underpin India's independent approach to international affairs.
15:10The fact that U.S. policy has pushed Russia closer to China makes it more impurative for India
15:18to maintain robust ties with Moscow.
15:21But look at the irony today.
15:24India's tried and tested partnership with Russia stands in stark contrast to America's erratic
15:33and punitive policy toward India.
15:36The U.S. under Trump has slapped tariffs on India that exceed those on China.
15:42It has coated Pakistan in ways that revive bitter Cold War memories.
15:48And it has singled India out for secondary sanctions while sparing other major Russian energy importers
15:56like the EU, Turkey, and Japan.
15:59In effect, Washington today is waging a quiet economic war on India.
16:06So against this background, Rajdeep, Putin's visit to India carries outsized geopolitical significance.
16:15You know, it's interesting because Rory Suchet, Vladimir Putin, you're a presenter with Russian RT TV.
16:27How much importance will this visit be given in the Russian media itself?
16:31RT India is being launched now by Russia in this country obviously to increase Russia's view of the world.
16:38But how important does Moscow see India?
16:42Is it seen as a strategic partner?
16:45Is it seen as a potential ally?
16:50How do you see, how does Russia see India from your vantage point?
16:55Russia sees India from not just a strategic point of view, but from a deeply entrusted friendship.
17:04This is something that goes back not just years, but decades.
17:08It goes back to the Soviet Union and beyond.
17:11I mean, a perfect example, the 1972 India War that really kicked off in 1971.
17:16It resulted in the creation of Bangladesh.
17:19The Soviet Union was militarily supporting India during this.
17:23And we all know that India was victorious in that war.
17:26But let's take a step away from that for a moment.
17:29Think about the body language, think about the embraces, but think about the language.
17:34My dear friend.
17:36That is how Putin refers to Modi.
17:39As we saw Modi saying, our all-weather friend, our trusted ally.
17:44This is an intrinsic partnership today.
17:47But it's not just about Russia and India.
17:50It's about the new multipolar world order as well.
17:54We're seeing Russia and India that have forged their position on the global stage now, standing upright in front of the world.
18:02When you say that Russia is isolated, it is not isolated.
18:05You've got the Euro-Atlantic alliance that represents just 10% of the world.
18:10Let me say that again.
18:12The Euro-Atlantic alliance represents 10% of the world.
18:16So the Western political and media landscape with a very clear agenda to demonize Putin and so on and so forth, they say these kinds of things.
18:26But when you watch the way that when Putin attends a BRIC summit or the ASEAN summit, friends with the SCO, you see the leaders coming to Moscow.
18:36In no way, shape or form is Putin isolated on the global stage.
18:41The partnership between Russia and India has stood the test of time and will continue to do so.
18:49The only worry is when you have someone like Donald Trump in the White House that likes to dish out his so-called tariffs that really are just sanctions.
18:57He is expediting the coagulation of strategic partnerships in the world.
19:02That is why we're seeing these new friendships and partnerships in the BRICS, the SCO, the ASEAN, and so forth.
19:10He is expediting the development and the maturation of this polycentric world order.
19:16And the people who stand on stage in this polycentric world order is India, Russia, the Global South, China.
19:24China and these countries are now standing up taller than ever before.
19:28Why? Because their focus is on their sovereign interests, something that Trump doesn't like.
19:35I like the use, Rory, of the word that you're using, polycentric world order.
19:44Ajay Malhotra, that in a sense is the significance also in a way of what's happening,
19:48because we have now, as described just now, an erratic relationship or a relationship with all the ups and downs with an erratic U.S. president,
19:58who has imposed 25% extra penalties on India for buying Russian oil.
20:04And India seemingly has capitulated and agreed.
20:07Many Indian companies are reducing their dependence on Russian oil.
20:10Is it possible to balance Russia and America?
20:15Is it possible to really do that in this new world order?
20:21You see, I don't believe India's role is to balance anyone against anything.
20:26We are there an emerging, a re-emerging power in our own right.
20:31And we should be treated accordingly by everyone.
20:34I think the Russians treat us with great respect.
20:36And so are the Americans till now.
20:38In fact, Trump under his first administration,
20:41that's when we decided to call it a comprehensive global strategic partnership with America,
20:47when he came here in February 2020.
20:50With the Russians, there's no such problem.
20:53But we find with the Americans, suddenly you have, as you pointed out, the problems with tariffs, the problems with sanctions,
21:00the problems with H-1B visas, the problems with Pakistan, and the strong tilt towards Pakistan,
21:07which is really a troublesome neighbor of ours, which the Americans don't know it,
21:12and which they continue to regard as a major non-NATO ally.
21:16So these are all things of concern.
21:19So we are not here to kind of provide a balance between them.
21:22We want good relations with both USA and Russia.
21:25With Russia, there's reciprocity, there's a reciprocal response from the Russian president,
21:31and therefore we get on well with them.
21:33And this has been a tradition now for a long time.
21:36So it's not only a time-tested, but a well-trusted relationship.
21:40With the Americans, they will have to earn our friendship once again.
21:45This can't go on much longer.
21:47They themselves are now talking with Putin.
21:50And it shows that at least they're trying to head in the right direction.
21:54And I do hope that the end result of all of this would be USA and Russia having a better understanding and relationship,
22:03and then it also helping us move ahead, because then the tariffs would become not so relevant.
22:08The sanctions would certainly become irrelevant.
22:11And then we have to see what the attitude is on Pakistan and what it's up to.
22:15You know, Pakistan is also a factor there, Alexei Zakharov, because you look at South Asia,
22:25and you see the relationship in a way that America is building slowly with Pakistan and its military leadership.
22:31We've also seen the Pakistan leadership go to Moscow.
22:34Does Moscow see India very differently to an Islamabad, Rawalpindi?
22:40That India, as we've been saying, all-weather friend, we've gone through good times and bad.
22:46Pakistan more transactional?
22:48Am I right in saying that?
22:50Well, I think we can't even compare Russia's relationship with India and Pakistan,
22:58because the level of cooperation with Pakistan is definitely not at the same level.
23:05We have never seen any visit by Russian leader, neither in Soviet times nor in the modern Russia.
23:14And it's also reflective of the level of the relationship to my mind.
23:19If we take economic aspect, then the bilateral trade is just around $1 billion.
23:26Yes, there was a relative rise over the past several years.
23:31Russia is exploring different areas of economic cooperation with Pakistan.
23:36Of course, there are regular talks, both at political level.
23:41There are now regular parliamentary exchanges.
23:44There is a regular exchange at the level of intergovernmental commission.
23:49There is some track of cooperation in energy.
23:52But when you look at the cooperation between Russia and Pakistan, then it's always very good on surface.
23:59They discuss many things, but I haven't seen many outcomes.
24:02I think that the situation within Pakistan itself, their problematic economic situation is a major hinder for that.
24:10And I think that if we compare at the level of trust, it's also not at the same level.
24:17Okay, so you're saying India is at a completely different level.
24:20Point taken.
24:21Sure, but you mentioned earlier the C factor, China.
24:26You know, I come back to it, Brahma, because China remains in many ways India's greatest challenge.
24:34In many ways, how to deal with China.
24:36Now, Russia and China have a very strong relationship.
24:39Does India raise the issue despite the fact that we are part of regional groupings like BRICS, like the SCO?
24:47Should India be taking a firmer stand to ensure, A, that Russia recognizes India's concerns vis-a-vis China?
24:57Well, first look at the symbolism of Putin's visit to India. The symbolism of his visit matters even more than the deliverables.
25:10This is Putin's first trip to India since the Ukraine war began. And by showing up in New Delhi, he's advertising that Russia has options beyond China.
25:20The U.S., as you know, by isolating Russia from Western markets, has effectively turned China into Russia's critical economic lifeline.
25:32But Putin's visit to India shows that Russia values its partnership with India and will not allow itself to become a junior partner to Beijing.
25:43And India, by hosting Putin, is making clear that it rejects the Western-imposed binary of with us or against us.
25:53India's message is that it will chart its own independent path, including treating Russia as a reliable long-term partner, especially when Washington has been treating India with a casual disregard that borders on strategic negligence.
26:10And we should not forget one thing that, you know, that Rory Suchet underlined, which is that the China factor has been central to India's partnership with Moscow, and it goes back to the 1971 war.
26:27But for that friendship treaty that India signed with the Soviet Union, Nixon administration, President Nixon, had been egging on China to intervene, to open another front against India.
26:42It was that friendship treaty with Moscow that prevented China from opening a military front against India when there was genocide going on in East Pakistan, which later became Bangladesh, through a short Indian military intervention.
26:59So the China factor has been central to India's partnership with Moscow right since the early 1970s.
27:05And even today, if you look at the geography, Russia is to the north of China, and India is to the south of China, and Russia-India partnership is critical to imposing discrete checks on Chinese power.
27:22The only missing link in this bigger picture is that America, instead of recognizing Russia's importance vis-à-vis China, has pushed Russia closer to China
27:34through unprecedented sanctions against Moscow.
27:39And some of those sanctions, of course, are hurting India as well, Rory, because here you've got India, which was doing oil deals with Russia, and Putin imposes 25% additional penalties.
27:54He doesn't do it with other parts of Europe, which have also done deals with Russia.
27:59So the hypocrisy, the double standards comes out, should a stronger message therefore be sent by Russia and India at the meeting that will take place also to Washington?
28:10That you cannot have this global hypocrisy anymore in this multipolar world order.
28:18It is fascinating.
28:19It is fascinating.
28:20I think you raise a very, very good point.
28:22Let's keep in mind that a fair amount of the oil that goes from Russia to India is being sold off to America's European allies.
28:31And so when Trump is trying to tariff-slash-sanction India for buying this Russian oil, he's actually de facto sanctioning his friends forever across the European Union.
28:46Now, let's keep this in mind.
28:48When the conflict in Ukraine kicked off, the European Union quickly said, we're not going to buy any more Russian energy.
28:54We're not going to put so-called money into Putin's so-called war coffers.
28:58But what happened? Exactly what Vladimir Putin said would happen, the sanctioned boomerang.
29:03Right now, the European economy is in stagnation.
29:07It is barely reaching 1% growth.
29:10The forecast is atrocious.
29:12Meantime, the economies of the BRICS countries, and Russia in particular, doing very well.
29:17Russia is looking at 3% growth.
29:20Russia is now the most sanctioned country in the world, and yet its economy is the fourth largest in the world in terms of PPP purchasing power parity.
29:31This is something that Vladimir Putin warned the West about.
29:35You sanctioned me.
29:36Those sanctions will boomerang.
29:38Meantime, as Europe tries to fund the Kyiv regime with money it simply doesn't have, what does the future hold for Europe?
29:47It looks disastrous as the multipolar world now is taking the lead.
29:53We are witnessing the economic financial infrastructure of the world heading east.
29:59The Euro-Atlantic alliance is trying to keep its grip, but its grip is watching the world slide through its hands like grains and granules of sand.
30:08There is a new world order in town.
30:12And this is one of the reasons why Donald Trump is tariffing and sanctioning all these countries around the world to stall their growth and try to put them in their place.
30:24It's too little, too late, hello new, polycentric world order.
30:29Can I therefore ask you in conclusion, Rory, there will be those, of course, who will say there is a moral position that India must take in support of Ukraine.
30:42I've heard it from a number of European nation ambassadors, but from others as well.
30:47There is a moral position that the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine was invaded by Russia.
30:53What will you tell those who will say that Vladimir Putin will also have to answer to certain stands that he's taken vis-a-vis Ukraine in terms of Russian expansionism?
31:03A quick final comment.
31:07Who financed the Maidan coup of 2014?
31:11Rory, go ahead.
31:12Who ousted the democratically elected leader of Ukraine?
31:17The United States, the State Department, admitted we spent $5 billion ousting the democratically elected leadership of Ukraine in 2014.
31:26Let me assure you, the conflict did not start a few years ago.
31:30The conflict started in 2014.
31:33When you want to achieve regime change in a country, what do you do?
31:37You sanction it and you try, as Washington said, to bring it to its knees.
31:42That has failed.
31:44The only thing that has worked for the sanctions is it's brought Europe economically to its knees.
31:51It's a classic play out of Langley, Virginia, where they want to achieve regime change.
31:56Either you do it physically, forcibly, militarily, or you sanction a country to such a level that the populace becomes so dissatisfied that the public achieves the regime change for Washington.
32:09They wanted that to happen in Moscow.
32:10They wanted that to happen in Moscow.
32:12Guess what?
32:13All these sanctions, all this Russophobia, all this anti-Russia rhetoric has only galvanized the Russian public around the Russian President Vladimir Putin.
32:22The support for the Kremlin in Russia to date has never been stronger.
32:29Rory Suchet, I must confess, I look forward to listening to you on RT.
32:38You make some wonderful observations from, of course, a Russian perspective, but it's good to have you on the show and my other guests.
32:45Good to have you all. We'll have plenty more of you. The visit starts tomorrow.
32:48Remember, of course, India today is getting that world exclusive interview with Vladimir Putin.
32:53We will have it on air same time tomorrow and excerpts right through the day tomorrow along with special guests.
33:00Okay, let's turn to the story that's breaking at the moment and it concerns Indigo Airlines.
33:06Indigo's check-in systems have collapsed in different parts of the country and that disruption has impacted flights across India.
33:14At least 85 Indigo flights have been delayed or cancelled today.
33:18DGCA has now asked Indigo to present facts related to the disruption.
33:22Indigo has apologized, says working round the clock.
33:25Indigo flyers have been asked to check flight status beforehand.
33:30Let's get a quick word in from Amit Bhardwaj.
33:32He tracks the civil aviation ministry.
33:34Amit, this almost seems unprecedented in terms of number of flights delayed or cancelled in a single day in a very long time.
33:42What really is the problem? Tell us.
33:46Rajni, just breaking down the numbers for our viewers.
33:49At only four major airports across India, Mumbai, Delhi, Ahmedabad and Hyderabad today,
33:56over 100 flights of Indigo have been cancelled.
34:00And for the month of November, these numbers go up to 1,200.
34:04So that itself reflects the kind of volume of cancellations that is happening at Indigo.
34:11As well as the delay in operation, that list is quite longer.
34:15Now, if you go to the root of the cause, it seems all fingers seems to be pointing at the different stakeholders, sources that I've spoken to,
34:24who are aware of the development.
34:26They have been constantly pointing at the FDTL new regime, which is the flight duty time limitations new regime, which was implemented, came into force in November 2025.
34:37And in November itself, you have the numbers of cancellations at Indigo spiking to 1,200.
34:44Now, Indigo has apologized for the inconvenience.
34:47DGCA is also saying that technical failures, ATC, FDTA compliance, all of these are the major reasons for these cancellations and operational delays.
34:57The deal is back to you.
35:01Okay, Amit Bhardwaj, we'll wait and see how this plays off.
35:04Let's hope it ends sooner rather than later.
35:06I want to turn to another issue of great public concern, the meltdown in the rupee.
35:11That's right.
35:12The rupee has breached the 90 rupee mark for the first time vis-a-vis the dollar.
35:17The Indian currency touched a low of 90.29 mid on persistent dollar demand from importers and foreign portfolio investors.
35:26The fall was also accelerated by the absence of dollar sales by the Reserve Bank of India.
35:32The 90 level was crossed moments into trade this morning.
35:35It caused some panic.
35:37Dealers say the next support level cannot be as estimated with the dollar-rupee surge at this pace.
35:44The rupee has fallen 5% this year.
35:47One of the worst performing currencies in the continent of Asia at the moment.
35:53Big questions.
35:54What explains the rupee slide?
35:56Trump's tariffs impacting the rupee.
35:58Time for RBI to step in.
35:59And let me add another question.
36:01Is it good or a bad thing?
36:03Two very formidable guests joining me.
36:06Sajid Chinoy, Managing Director, Chief India Economist at JP Morgan.
36:10Surjit Balla, former Executive Director IMF.
36:13I want to come to you, Sajid, first because I read an interesting article that you've written in the Business Standard where you've given four reasons why you think it's not a bad thing to have a falling rupee.
36:28Explain to us why you actually believe a falling rupee is not such a bad thing.
36:34Thank you, Rajiv.
36:35Good evening.
36:36Good to be here.
36:37Number one, we should not conflate a strong currency for a strong economy.
36:41In fact, what history has taught us is countries that have grown very rapidly have often done so and been able to drive export growth by keeping their currencies relatively undervalued.
36:51Why is that?
36:52Because when a currency depreciates, what happens?
36:55Your exports become more competitive.
36:57You can drive stronger export growth, number one.
37:00Your imports become more expensive and therefore you give a better chance to your import competitors at home.
37:06So, in a way, a weaker currency is helping your manufacturing sector both on the export front and on the import front, right?
37:13Number one.
37:14Number two, the current context really matters over here, right?
37:17Think of what's happening at the moment.
37:19In the moment, tariffs on India by the US are the highest in the world.
37:23The effective tariff rate is 34%.
37:26Tariffs on our ASEAN competitors are 16%, which means we're at a competitive disadvantage.
37:31If the rupee were to weaken to try and bridge some of that gap, we're actually helping offset some of that adverse tariff differential and giving our exporters the best possible chance.
37:42Number three, I think the big threat to emerging markets in the coming years is all this massive excess capacity in China.
37:49With the US putting on tariffs on China, what is China doing?
37:52It's redirecting this excess capacity to all over the world, Asia, India.
37:57India's bilateral trade deficit with China is 3% of GDP.
38:01Now, a lot of Indian businessmen will say, we won't invest in India because it's very hard to compete with cheap Chinese imports.
38:09So when you have, you know, calibrated depreciation, again, you're making those Chinese imports a little bit more expensive and giving Indian domestic substitutes a better chance.
38:19So I think, you know, we really should not confuse a strong currency for a strong economy and likewise a weak currency for a weak economy.
38:28The final thing I'll say, Rajdeep, is, you know, this notion of the rupees made a lifetime high.
38:33You know, every day when I get older, my age is at a lifetime high, right? Every day.
38:38And so looking at levels is sometimes very deceptive.
38:41India's inflation rate historically has been 4% to 5%.
38:45Global inflation has been 2%.
38:47To maintain our external competitiveness, a 3%, 4%, 5% rupee depreciation is par for the cost and should not be alarming at all.
38:55It's interesting the way you're putting it because Surjit Bhalla, I recall 2013 when the rupee fell to what, 58.50 to the dollar and Prime Minister Modi, then Chief Minister Gujarat had targeted the Manmohan Singh government and said this was more evidence of a faltering economy, of a fragile economy.
39:18Now, we've got Sajid Chinoy explaining why it's not such a bad idea to have a depreciating rupee and actually a falling rupee doesn't necessarily mean a weak economy.
39:29Is 2025 very different to 2030?
39:34Yeah.
39:35In several ways, it's very different than 2013.
39:40And, you know, for one, our growth rate is very high, especially compared to our competitors.
39:49Second, the inflation rate in India is very low.
39:54So, therefore, what is a surprise is why is the currency weakening?
40:02The fundamentals are all in favor of a stronger rupee, not a weaker rupee.
40:10So, what Sajid and others have to explain is why in this scenario of highest growth rate amongst all our competitors, lowest inflation rate amongst all our competitors, as Sajid himself will tell you, that's a recipe for a strengthening rupee, not a recipe for a weakening rupee.
40:32Second, or third, that India's real exchange rate is now about 20% lower, 25% lower, he has the calculations, he'll tell you, than it should be.
40:47So, therefore, our currency is very, very competitive now.
40:51Our growth rate is very high.
40:53Our inflation rate is very low.
40:55So, I think we all need to ask the question, why in this scenario, and there are not too many scenarios like this, for any currency in the world, where you weaken, where in the face of strong economic fundamentals.
41:10You know, so let me take that to you, Sajid, explain that.
41:16We are, you know, arguably one of the worst performing, if not the worst performing currency nation.
41:21So, it's all very well to say there are benefits from the rupee depreciating.
41:26But the truth of the matter is, surely it should cause some concern if this becomes a freefall.
41:31It's 5% down over the year.
41:35So, two points, Rajdeep, but let me answer Sajid's question about why the currency is under depreciating pressure, and then let's distinguish between a freefall and what's happening right now.
41:45It's undoubtedly true our macro fundamentals are much better.
41:48The inflation rate is very low, growth has picked up.
41:51But the fact is, over the last 18 months, the balance of payments has been in deficit.
41:56Sajid, this year, as you will know, the current account deficit is on track to doubling.
42:00Now, it's not a threatening level, but last year it was 0.6% of GDP.
42:04This year it's going to be 1.3% of GDP, in large part because gold prices have surged, gold imports have been high, and the current account is much wider.
42:13Capital flows, to be fair, have been slowing in the last 18 months, two years.
42:17We've seen FDI flow slow.
42:19We've seen equity flow slow because equities have rotated out of India into China, and bond inflows have been softer.
42:25So, the fact is, the balance of payments has been in deficit.
42:29This is not some engineered depreciation by the rupee.
42:32Quite the contrary.
42:33The RBI has been intervening all year long to slow the pace of depreciation.
42:38And you have to ask yourself, at what point is it worth spending $50 billion or $100 billion to slow the pace of depreciation to its new equilibrium?
42:47When the balance of payments dynamics change, as Sajid will agree, the rupee has to find a new, lower equilibrium.
42:53And I would argue, Rajdeep, you know, in March, the rupee was at 87.50.
42:58Seven months later, if 87.50 goes to 90 rupees, that's a two and a half percent decline.
43:04Or a five percent decline is hardly threatening.
43:07This is not some crisis that's happening.
43:09This is the RBI making a conscious choice that in the wake of a balance of payments deficit, it's not prudent for the RBI to be selling its reserves constantly to prevent much needed adjustment, because that also has costs.
43:22When the RBI sells its reserves, it tightens liquidity and pushes up domestic interest rates.
43:27So, policy making is all about trade-offs and I think the RBI has chosen the right path to let there be calibrated depreciation to respond to changing fundamentals.
43:40Very interestingly put. Sajid, let me give you a final word.
43:43What lies ahead? You always like to forecast. Your political forecast can be on and off, if I may say so.
43:50But you want to give us an economic forecast for what will happen over the next three months?
43:55No, I think what we need to address is why is a rupee weakening?
44:02And I have got two explanations for it, and none of which I think my dear friend Sajid would disagree with.
44:10First, you know, FDI into India has collapsed.
44:16Net FDI into India today is about 0.09 percent of GDP.
44:24GDP, which is the lowest level since 1990. That is one year before the crisis.
44:33Second, I think that the elephant in the room, which I'm sure Sajid knows about and everybody else, is the lack or the seeming lack of a trade deal.
44:46You have the trade deal tomorrow or day after, and Sajid and all of us will all be talking about a strengthening rupee, because that's a normal thing to happen.
44:59This is the fastest decline in the value of the rupee ever.
45:06So let's get backtrack a little bit. This is not engineered by the RBI. This has shocked the RBI, and so much so that I think the decline in the repo, much needed decline in the repo rate, may not happen because the RBI will feel, oh, my God, I'm trying to prevent the rupee from falling.
45:32So this has macro consequences for growth and for RBI. So this is not a story very simple of current account balance and whatever.
45:43Everything is in rosy shape in India, except the fact, yeah.
45:53Sajid, you want to get 30 seconds? Because these are two very different points. You know, Surjit almost seems to suggest that it's not a don't worry, be happy kind of situation.
46:02There should be some concerns, including shown by the RBI. Very quick response.
46:06No doubt, Surjit. I agree with both of Surji's points. The real answer should be, how do we boost FDI flows into India?
46:13And yes, how do we try and get a trade deal with the US? Those are the fundamental issues. Holding that constant in the absence of those two things, what is the best response?
46:21And the best response is, at that point, let the rupee be the shock absorber to the economy till those two fundamental issues get resolved, which I agree with Surjit on.
46:33Okay, let's leave it there. There's a trade deal concerns, there are FDI concerns, and these are all legitimate concerns that we have. But I appreciate two fine minds joining us and trying to demystify the falling rupee.
46:47Thank you both, Sajid Chinoy and Surjit Bhalla for joining us on the news today.
46:52Let's turn to tonight's Get Real India story. A central university instituted in Assam as a part of the 1985 Assam accord is now in ferment.
47:02The students are agitating, professors are refusing to do work, corruption, financial mismanagement, and the prolonged absence of a centre-appointed vice chancellor has pushed Tespur University in Assam to the brink.
47:18Tonight's Get Real India story comes from a part of the country that doesn't get enough attention. Take a look.
47:32Tejpur University, a central university born out of the Assam Accord, is today under total lockdown.
47:41Gate shut, classes suspended, and a campus in revolt.
47:47For nearly two months now, students and teachers have been out on the streets demanding the removal of Vice Chancellor Shambhunath Singh.
47:56Shambhu, go back! Go back! Go back! Go back!
47:59They accuse him of corruption, manipulation, and almost never being on campus.
48:06We are putting out on a list of corruption at all levels.
48:14What are the senses of corruption has been on campus.
48:17We are keeping our vision. We have been keeping his prestige,
48:21keeping the awareness of his supervision in the club.
48:22When we request him for some support, like this is not for a personal thing, for training
48:33the students and other things.
48:35We are not getting, like, even our files won't move fast.
48:39It will be going either to FO's office or to the VC's office.
48:43When we ask VC's office, they'll tell it's in FO's office.
48:46So things are not moving.
48:47And finally, who is suffering?
48:48Students.
48:49So if we question him, then again the problem comes, like we will get suspensions.
48:55I just want to request our chief minister, Dr. Hemantaviswa Sarma, and our honourable prime
49:02minister, Narendra Modi, to interfere in this matter.
49:05Why we are, you know, going back, we are losing our test for university, losing its credibility.
49:15Their anger has been simmering for over a year.
49:19It began with allegations of rigged faculty appointments.
49:23Then came the numbers that stunned the campus.
49:2651 official trips, 388 days away.
49:30More than half his tenure spent outside Tejpur.
49:34Students say the university was left in administrative paralysis, with exam delays, unapproved files,
49:41and stalled decisions.
49:42The unrest exploded in September, when students urged a condolence meet for Assami's icon, Zubin
49:51Garg.
49:52The vice-chancellor's refusal triggered a wave of fury, after which he abruptly left the
49:58campus, and hasn't returned since.
50:01What followed was unprecedented.
50:04Faculty resignations, public protests, effigy burning, and allegations of financial irregularity.
50:11The vice's office is totally non-functional at this moment.
50:20The vice's office is totally non-functional at this moment.
50:23He should be in charge.
50:26He communicates with the vice chancellor for the approval, either through email or through
50:30WhatsApp, whatever it is.
50:31A panel appointed by the center visited the campus in September, but its findings were never
50:46released.
50:47On November 27th, the university shut down completely.
50:52Students, teachers, and staff have together declared that they won't reopen until the vice-chancellor
50:58is removed.
50:59The university is in a state of institutional collapse, and the appointment authority for
51:06central universities, the Union Education Ministry, remains silent.
51:12Tejpur University now stands at a breaking point, not just because of one administrator's
51:18actions, but also because of the system's failure to act.
51:23Northeast Bureau, India Today.
51:29The kind of story you won't find on Prime Time elsewhere, but stories that we call Get
51:33Real India.
51:34What we also don't see often enough on Prime Time is good news stories, and I want to end
51:38tonight's show with a good news story of a doctor in Odisha, who's giving away her life
51:44savings to help cancer patients.
51:47You want to meet Dr.
51:48Lakshmi Bhai in our good news today's story.
51:51As I say goodbye, Shubratri, Jai Hind, Namaskar, Namaste.
51:56Dr. Lakshmi Bhai, a renowned gynecologist from Bairampur, will celebrate her 100th birthday on Friday.
52:09The doctor, who served society for several decades, now wants to help women cancer patients.
52:17Dr. Lakshmi Bhai is donating her life savings, 3 crore and 40 lakh rupees, to AIMS Bhubaneshwar.
52:24The trailblazer in her field, Dr. Lakshmi Bhai, belonged to the first MBBS batch at the SCB Medical
52:49College in Katak.
52:52She completed her MD in obstetrics and gynecology from Madras Medical College in 1958.
52:59Dr. Lakshmi Bhai retired from the government service in 1986.
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