- 3 months ago
- #considerthis
Malaysia may not be officially in election season yet but politically, the manoeuvring has already begun. From Rafizi Ramli and Nik Nazmi’s exit from PKR, to the increasingly public tensions between PH and BN, the road to GE16 is starting to take shape. On this episode of #ConsiderThis Melisa Idris speaks with Ibrahim Suffian, Programmes Director of Merdeka Center.
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00:10Hello and good evening. I'm Melissa Idris. Welcome to Consider This. This is the show
00:15where we want you to consider and then reconsider what you know of the news of the day. Malaysia
00:19may not be officially in election season yet, but politically the manoeuvring has already begun.
00:25From Rafizi Ramli and Nik Nazmi's exit from PKR to the increasingly public tensions between PH and
00:33Barisa National, the road to GE16 is starting to take shape. So joining me on the line to discuss
00:40the recent developments in our political scene, I have with me Ibrahim Sufiano, more affectionately
00:45known as Ben, who is the Programmes Director at Merdeka Centre. Ben, thank you so much for joining
00:50me today. There's a lot to talk about today. Let's begin with Rafizi's exit from PKR. How
00:56damaging is that to the party and also from a voter's psychology perspective? How would
01:07you assess the current situation? Well, I think the current situation, you know, speaks of the
01:13trajectory in which the country is in. We've experienced a lot of volatility over the last
01:18five years, you know, basically since the decline of Barisa National, we have volatility during
01:24the COVID period where a lot of changes has happened. And I think this is part and parcel
01:29of a democratization process and also signals the situation where political powers no longer
01:38are able to just persuade people. And in part is because I think the field has become wide open
01:44due to social media, changes in people's expectations and also the emergence of new ideas into politics.
01:52So I think what has transpired with Rafizi's resignation and formation of a new political party
01:59that is directly competing against Pakatan Harapan, I think speaks of a continued fragmentation of the
02:08political scene. Number one, I think there's a lot of expectations of reforms when
02:13Pakatan Harapan together with coalition partners formed government and there has been disappointments
02:19as well. And this, you know, resignation and later splintering of the reform movement into this
02:25party bersama is a manifestation of that frustration. So a lot of people have left. Will it be a threat
02:31to
02:31Pakatan Harapan? I think in the short term, no, but I think in the medium term, it sort of depends
02:36on
02:37how far they can go ahead and gain traction within the wider electorate because even a small vote swing
02:45could hurt Pakatan Harapan, specifically PKR, in the marginal seats by splitting reform-minded voters.
02:54Okay. So Rafizi appears to believe that there's still space for a progressive policy-driven
03:01party in Malaysia. Is he right? I'm just wondering who are the voters he's targeting? You mentioned
03:08Pakatan Harapan, but is he a threat to Muda, for instance? The idea of wanting to create a third
03:18party, a third space? Is that a third force? Is that feasible in Malaysia?
03:25Yeah. I mean, our political culture here is governed by the fact that we have a first-past-the-post
03:30system,
03:30which means that the party with the most number of votes will be able to win power, win the seat.
03:38And therefore, we have not seen a lot of third parties gain success, partly because
03:44the votes are typically too small unless they partner up with larger pre-existing parties.
03:51If you look at PKR itself, if they were to go out there in 1999, you know, more than 25
04:00years ago,
04:01go into elections by themselves, we probably wouldn't hear of it anymore. But because they partnered with
04:07DAP and PAS at that time, they were able to gather seats, they were able to survive two electoral terms
04:14and continue to build support going on from there. So the answer to your question is no. Most third
04:20parties do not have, I think, the survivable chance beyond, I'll say, two electoral terms unless they
04:27partner up with larger, more established parties. So I think this new party Bersama potentially
04:34will face the same challenges as well. Because if they're not going to work with PH, they are not
04:41going to work with Barisan National and not with Perikatan National, then they are left fighting for
04:46a very small sliver of the electorate pie out there. Who could they feasibly work with if you've eliminated
04:53all the options at the table? I mean, they can work with themselves, you know, because I think the decision
04:59to form a new party by themselves, you know, suggests that maybe Mr Rafizi wants to exert maximum
05:05control over the branding, candidate selection, and also the ideological direction of the party.
05:11If he had even joined with Muda, potentially that's still possible, joined with Muda, that would mean,
05:16you know, some compromises would be in the way. And there might be some differences in terms of how they
05:21want to portray themselves as a reformist party, as opposed to Muda that wanted to be the voice of the
05:27younger generation. And also, I also question, you know, how big of a market, electoral market there
05:34is for a kind of a reformist or post-reform electorate. You know, from the polling that we've
05:40done over the last 25 years and even last month, the economy remains issue number one. Most Malaysians
05:47are concerned about cost of living, incomes, and also the economic prospects of the country. And so,
05:54they have to talk about that. Most people who wish to see greater reforms are also wanting to see
06:02changes in the economic space. So, there are very few single-issue voters out there. And so,
06:08the party has to craft its message very well if it wants to be relevant in the playing field.
06:14Is the personality draw of Rafizi Ramli sufficient to get voters to be interested in this party? What
06:22do the poll numbers say, Ben? Well, I mean, you know, Rafizi is a widely known figure because of his,
06:28you know, vociferous criticism of the previous administration in the past when he was in
06:33opposition. And also, I think, his efforts to try and address some of the cost of living problems that
06:39people attain while he was economics minister. But, you know, he at the time was in PKR and also
06:46suffered also under the general criticism that PKR suffered like a lot of promises, very little on
06:52delivery and so on. But having said all that, I mean, he still does command some admiration amongst
06:58reform-minded voters out there and maybe some of the urban, younger supporters.
07:05But, admiration alone probably doesn't translate into votes or even trigger defection from other
07:12politicians to his side. So, I think it's, I think, very limited. I mean, in terms of overall approval
07:21ratings, last month when we finished the poll at the end of April, his national approval rating was 32%.
07:29The Prime Minister's approval rating is 52%. So, Anwar is still 20%, 20 points higher than Rafizi.
07:39Even Khairi Jamaluddin is polling about 50% in the country last month. So, it's got some ways to go,
07:48you know, in terms of getting support. Even former Prime Minister Tan Sri Muhyiddin is still nationally at 36%.
07:56So, yeah. So, not so easy. Not easy moving ahead.
08:01Okay. Well, since you brought up the Prime Minister, let's talk about Anwar Ibrahim and
08:06him floating the possibility of snap elections now. Talk to me about the likelihood based on what you,
08:14what the considerations are. I know that the crystal ball is only, we can only read so much in the
08:19crystal ball. But what other, I guess, what other strategic logic at play here?
08:26Well, I think, you know, early elections is basically the prerogative of the Prime Minister. And I think
08:31typically in our Westminster-style system, it's based on the time when he feels he has the best chance,
08:37or when the opponent is in a back foot, then maybe that's the time when they want to call it.
08:43No one really knows. But I think if you were to speculate, I would rather, you know, guess a
08:48later election might do better than an earlier one. So that whatever crisis that may transpire over
08:54the next six months, I think the government can determine its shape and size and also develop a
09:00response to it. We've seen in the past where even though there's economic crisis, but if the people in
09:06power are adept enough, they can actually roll with it and take advantage of crisis by using the levers
09:12that they have on hand in order to actually win public support. And I think in this context,
09:17we can see that despite the, you know, tribulations during the pandemic period,
09:22Prikatan National did very well because they were associated with trying to help people who were hit
09:29by the pandemic at that time. So that's one thing. But I think beyond that, it's also, I think,
09:36the new challenges that's emerging from emergence of a new party, I think that's one dynamic. But
09:42another more critical dynamic is the relationship with within the unity government coalition partners
09:47itself. We've seen a little kerfuffle happen in Negeri Sembilan and that seems to have been smoothed
09:54over, you know, in the last few weeks. Let's see whether it transpires into something bigger.
10:00And whether or not at the top, at the top national leadership of Barisan National and Pakatan Harapan,
10:07they are able to continue to work together and maintain stability that has allowed them to govern
10:15and be part of government and use it to build support for their respective parties on the next election.
10:23Right. I'm glad you brought up Negeri Sembilan because that is interesting in terms of the dynamics.
10:29I'm reading that along with Barisan National's decision to go solo in Johor. How are you
10:37seeing the current situation? Is there danger or a risk that this coalition government may not hold
10:45for very much longer? Well, I mean, there's always the risk that, you know, developments at the state
10:51level can expand, draw in national leadership to make statements and to posture themselves and ultimately
10:58unravel the coalition that they have built up. I think the context of early elections does occur,
11:04but potentially limited to states like Johor, Melaka, potentially Negeri Sembilan as well.
11:10And therefore, I think at each state there are unique dynamics there. I think, you know,
11:16Barisan National wants to contest by themselves in Johor state elections because if they have early
11:20elections, they have lower turnout. Lower turnout typically favors their side and therefore they can keep
11:26retaining the state and push off any other kind of claimants or also other competitors to the side and
11:36therefore keep the state in their fold. And so if, let's say, leadership in Pakatan Harapan is able to
11:44accept that, that, you know, go to the contest and accept whatever consequences the results we bring,
11:49then I think we can still have national stability and national elections do not have to be held so
11:55soon. When we looked at the numbers say in places like Johor, you know, Barisan National does have an
12:00upper hand there. So regardless of whether they have the elections now or much later, they continue to
12:06have the upper hand. And I think it's just how they manage expectations on the part of Pakatan Harapan and
12:11Perikatan National going ahead. And also the kind of rhetorics that appear during the state election,
12:18whether it will hurt or help maintain national stability also remains to be seen.
12:25I'm sure you're watching a lot of data points. How do you filter the noise between what you think
12:29is just posturing versus what you see as real indicators? What are you watching closely Ben?
12:36We're looking at basically, you know, how the different ethnic groups are voting. We're looking at
12:41specific age groups, how younger voters are making their choices, who are the independent or swing
12:47voters in the coming election and where they will flow. And at the same time, we're also trying to
12:53track how each political party or political coalition, you know, figures with these respective
12:59segments of voters. What we've noticed is that in the last couple of years, and even now, I would say
13:06most voters have already made up their minds. You know, if elections are held at the end of this year,
13:12or even if it's held next year, if everything pretty much remains the same, I think the number of
13:18voters who are considered really swing voters are actually very small. And this accounts for people
13:23who are voting for the first time, first time voters, people who are 18 to maybe 21, 22 years old.
13:29Uh, maybe some women voters who may have voted for one side in the last election, but now maybe swinging
13:36back to what's tried and tested because they have lost favor, uh, with other parties. We're trying to
13:43see that. And then the other part where we're seeing is also voter turn out. Some segments of the electorate
13:50are disappointed, you know. So this goes back to what Rafi Zee is trying to aim for. Disappointed,
13:56uh, reformist-minded voters who felt that they voted for Pakatan Harapan in the last election,
14:02and then these guys have failed, uh, to deliver most of the reforms. Uh, and therefore, uh, what will
14:09they do? Will they vote for a third party? Will they stay home? Uh, remains to be seen. Uh, but
14:16what we've
14:16noticed is that there's, I think, a lingering fear among some of the political elites, like
14:20what transpired in Sabah election can transpire here as well. That in Sabah, the urban voters,
14:27particularly ethnic Chinese, voted for third parties like Warisan in a big way. But we also noted that
14:33half of them didn't come out to vote, you know. So, so turnout of the voters, I think is critical,
14:38uh, as well as, uh, what's at play in the coming weeks and months and how, I would say, the
14:44current
14:44leadership of the unity government explains itself to its supporters, you know, in order to try and
14:50sustain support as they approach elections. All right. Ben, thank you so much for joining me on
14:55the show. It's always a pleasure talking to you. Ibrahim Sufyan from Merdeka Center there. We're going
14:59to take a quick break here on Consider This or The Back With More. Stay tuned.
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