00:00Sir Keir Starmer's crisis is more than a bad run of results.
00:05Labour is now arguing over whether it can turn promises of change
00:09into actual visible results for voters.
00:12That matters beyond Westminster because confidence in the Prime Minister
00:16affects the decisions shaping public services, jobs, living costs and investment.
00:23Every politician knows that the end is going to come
00:26and it's just about the circumstances by which that comes about.
00:29Keir Starmer, when he looks back upon his time, which of course he will do
00:34and perhaps he will write a book about all of his experiences,
00:38will sort of feel pretty unlucky insofar as he inherited leadership of the Labour Party
00:43when he was in a dreadful state after the 2019 Get Brexit Done election,
00:48which of course was won so magnificently by Boris Johnson.
00:51And of course, we're all going to live happily ever after.
00:54Spoiler alert, we haven't done so. Brexit has been a bit of a disaster in many ways.
00:58But hey, that's another argument. And of course, why Andrew Boris Johnson?
01:02Well, we know party gate and lots of things.
01:04He had to go as a consequence, large of his own sort of party.
01:09He wasn't voted out. And indeed, of course, his period, it was marked by some successes,
01:15certainly getting the Brexit vote through.
01:17But hey, he sort of left it under something of a clad.
01:20Keir Starmer seems to be going down the same direction.
01:22And let's face it, it's not even two years since he had that sort of incredible sort of election,
01:28which of course, remember, Labour, you know, they were sort of dead in the water in 2019
01:34under sort of Jeremy Corbyn. Worst election results since 1935.
01:37Pressure on Sir Keir Starmer has grown following poor local election results,
01:43ministerial resignations and public calls from some MPs for Sir Keir to stand down.
01:49The criticism is not all coming from one part of the party.
01:53That makes it harder for him to contain because it suggests a wider loss of confidence
01:59rather than a single factional dispute.
02:02Under Labour rules, a former challenger would need support from a significant share of the party's MPs
02:09before the contest could move to a wider vote.
02:12Of course, Keir Starmer repaired the sort of the fortunes of the party
02:16to the extent whereby in July 2024, as I say, not yet two years.
02:21Yeah, an incredible sort of victory, massive majority. What could go wrong?
02:25Well, everything seems to have done so. There's been a whole sort of listening of sort of issues.
02:30Mandelson has been one of them. But of course, it's the fact that Keir Starmer
02:34never really sort of seemed like the sort of the charismatic politician that he wanted to be.
02:39He certainly didn't have the sort of what Boris Johnson did.
02:41He certainly did not have what Tony Blair had and indeed seemed to lack that sort of heart and ideology.
02:47Never really in love with the party. He sort of did what was required.
02:51And his performances have been rather wooden.
02:53So we're at the situation now where as a consequence of the sort of the recent by-elections,
02:59sorry, I shouldn't call them by-elections, the local elections,
03:01where of course Labour got one of a hell of a kicking,
03:04there is serious concern within the party.
03:06Unless they do something very significant, such as change in leader,
03:10they're going to sort of go into the next general election,
03:12which is likely to be in three years time.
03:14But who knows? Because of course, events can sort of mean that that happens a lot sooner than we expect.
03:19But certainly whenever that election occurs, unless they have a new leader and someone that is not Keir Starmer,
03:25they're going to get one hell of a kicking in the sort of the general election.
03:29And of course, they'll be out of power for another generation if ever they sort of get into power again.
03:33And indeed, if I may sort of add, what sort of recent events have shown is our sort of political
03:37system is now multi-partied.
03:40The idea of any sort of one party winning a majority anywhere in local councils,
03:46especially, of course, we've seen that recently, and more particularly a general election,
03:49it seems to be sort of fading, so it will be about coalitions.
03:52Secure supporters say replacing a sitting prime minister would risk weeks of instability
03:59and make it harder for the government to focus on the economy, public services and its new parliamentary programme.
04:06Those pushing for change argue that Labour has lost political momentum and needs a sharper message for voters.
04:13And I think we're still going through the sort of the throes of sort of what happened under sort of
04:18various leaders in the Labour Party in recent years.
04:21I'm thinking about Corbyn.
04:22So the party is not quite sure if it's left or right or in the centre.
04:26Then there's no sort of unity of purpose.
04:28And that's the real sort of problem that Starmer has not been able to sort of to master and bring
04:33to the party,
04:34which, of course, is that sort of that spirit and that sort of love of the sort of what they
04:38do and how they're going to achieve it.
04:40So we're left in a situation where more uncertainty.
04:43And if I sort of may add, this is all going to cost us extra money.
04:46Those taking up to new mortgages and lending.
04:49They said the guilt rates are going up because the money markets, they're sort of saying they don't like uncertainty,
04:54especially if Keir Starmer is replaced by somebody who's more left leaning and willing to sort of turn on the
04:59spending taps
05:00to hopefully make people's lives feel better.
05:02But ultimately, it has to be paid for.
05:04And of course, that comes as a consequence of money being borrowed on the international markets.
05:09And as I say, the people who lend the money, they price in the risk.
05:13To then ask.
05:14Hmm.
05:14Hmm.
05:14It's good.
05:14I don't think it's terrible.
05:14Now, pass.
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