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Can Jayden Daniels eclipse 4000 yards passing in year number three of his career?
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00:00I got to assume that was the Chargers game,
00:02the awesome throw that he made in that L.A. game
00:04when he looked like 2024 Jaden Daniels,
00:07just turning the clocks back.
00:09On Fox, that was your A crew.
00:11I mean, you got Tom Brady chuckling like,
00:13this dude's good.
00:15That's a good place to be.
00:17That might have been when Tom got smitten
00:18and his eyes lit up that he wanted him
00:20in the flag football thing.
00:22I'm going to recruit him for it, yeah.
00:24Welcoming you back on the fan.
00:25He wanted to, you know, let's make sure
00:27that we get him.
00:28If he can do that, I want him
00:29on my flag football operation.
00:33So ESPN did an exercise.
00:35It was Mike Clay who projected
00:37passing leaders this year in the NFL.
00:39And oddly, I don't know if maybe
00:41just for over-unders, this is how you have to do it.
00:43The numbers are actually super low
00:45because there was a time when a lot of guys
00:47threw for 4,000 yards.
00:49Weirdly, that's not really the case anymore.
00:51I think you've got more running backs
00:52that are dual threats.
00:53So instead of just rushing for, you know,
00:56100 yards and throwing for 4,300,
00:57you get a lot of guys that throw
00:58for, you know, 3,400, 3,500
01:00and run for 6,700, something like that.
01:02But Matt Stafford at 4,700 high watermark last year.
01:06Jared Goff, who wouldn't run
01:08if you told him there was a fire next to him.
01:104,500 yards.
01:11Dak Prescott, same.
01:13Drake May, 4,394.
01:15And Sam Darnold and Trevor Lawrence,
01:17both narrowly over 4,000, not at 4,100.
01:20But that was the list last year.
01:21Stafford, Goff, Prescott, 1, 2, 3.
01:23May, Darnold, Lawrence, 4, 5, 6
01:25in terms of passing yards all over 4,000.
01:28So this exercise for ESPN was a projection
01:31of who's going to lead the NFL in passing yards
01:33this coming year.
01:34So to your point, real quick,
01:35just pick 10 years ago, nice round number.
01:37There were 13 4,000-yard passers.
01:40There were three other guys that missed a game
01:41but were in the 3,900 range.
01:43Last year, there were six.
01:44So there could have been 15, 16.
01:47Instead, there were six 10 years later.
01:49I think that works with what we're seeing,
01:50which is teams are implementing safety,
01:54playing over the top,
01:55not giving up the home run goal.
01:56You ain't beating us deep.
01:57Making you either take the 4-5 at a time
02:00into short passing game, check down game,
02:02or run the football,
02:03which we've seen the last couple years come back.
02:05Better starting field position with the kickoffs.
02:07You add all that up,
02:08it's these little 5 yards, 10 yards, 7 yards,
02:11whatever, that chips away at the yardage totals.
02:13That's a really smart point, too.
02:15When you're first and 10 from your own 21 on average,
02:18that's very, very different than first and 10
02:21from your own 32.
02:22You know what I mean?
02:22That's just, every drive is 11 yards fewer,
02:25and there's not as many yards to be had, obviously.
02:27So those are some of the reasons for that, for sure.
02:30But I find it interesting that Mike Clay of ESPN,
02:33who did this ranking of the top 10 passing yards leaders
02:36in the NFL, and Jaden Daniels shows up on this,
02:38which I like, has the yards pretty low.
02:41He's got a total of five guys over 4,000,
02:44fewer than last year.
02:45He's got nobody over 4,284,
02:47which is Brock Purdy at number one.
02:50So I guess he's assuming health.
02:53Purdy is a guy who rarely stays healthy completely.
02:57But I found this list fascinating.
02:59First things first, because we're in D.C.
03:00He's got Jaden Daniels,
03:02eighth in the NFL in passing yards at 39.17.
03:05I would love that, by the way.
03:07If Jaden Daniels finishes just shy of 4,000,
03:11over 3,900 passing yards,
03:12it means he stayed healthy,
03:14it means he played in, I don't know, 15 or 16 games,
03:17and you can account for another probably
03:19somewhere between 6 and 900 rushing yards,
03:22let's just say 750, 800 rushing yards.
03:24You're getting 4,500-plus,
03:26upwards of 4,700 yards from Jaden Daniels.
03:29If he throws for almost 4,000,
03:31David Blau is the real deal,
03:32and this offense cooked.
03:34It would have put him,
03:35as I think you just alluded to,
03:37eighth or ninth last year,
03:39and his projection is eighth this year.
03:41Yeah, and that would kind of fit.
03:43It would also sort of fit the story
03:44that this team doesn't have to score 38 to win, right?
03:49It would fit the,
03:50this is all, you know,
03:51less is asked, don't be Superman,
03:53we don't need you to, you know,
03:54have 500 yards of total offense
03:56for us to have a chance,
03:57like we're playing in the Big 12.
03:58This is more of a team football game,
04:00and you're managing some of that.
04:01Yeah, but we'd be eighth in the NFL in passing yards,
04:04so I don't know how much of my takeaway
04:06is that you don't have to do a lot
04:07throwing the football.
04:08Seven guys will have thrown the ball
04:10for more yards than him at that point.
04:12I think it's just a sign of the times, kind of.
04:14Like, if you would have told me,
04:16I'm trying to think of when I would go back to,
04:18the Jay Gruden offense
04:19with Cousins and Deshaun Jackson
04:21and Pierre Garcon and Santana Moss,
04:24like all those guys.
04:252016.
04:25Vernon Davis,
04:26and then maybe Jordan Reed even before that.
04:29He threw for 4,900 yards one year.
04:31Almost 5,000 passing yards.
04:33If you would have said going into that year,
04:35the following season,
04:36Cousins will throw for 3,900,
04:37I'd be like, oh, they're running the ball a lot.
04:39They're taking a bunch off his plate.
04:40That would be 300 more yards
04:42than Jayden threw for in the electric 2024 season.
04:44It'd be a pretty big leap.
04:46They got him within 15 yards
04:47of what they're pegging Matt Stafford for
04:49or saying, you know, Patrick Mahomes
04:50is going to get 3,800 10th in the NFL.
04:53Now, he may or may not play week one.
04:54Right.
04:55So maybe that's part of it.
04:56But they've got him right there
04:57with Joe Burrow and Jared Goff,
04:59who's going to be slinging it around
05:00indoors for the Detroit Lions.
05:02But for me, I guess my bigger thing is,
05:05if that happens, dot, dot, dot,
05:06my takeaway, Danny, is he's healthy,
05:08so everything's okay.
05:09But I'm assuming that they're baking health in.
05:12You have to, right?
05:13Projection that he's going to stay healthy.
05:14You're just assuming everyone plays all season.
05:16What does that look like?
05:18But I would take the under on 39-17.
05:20There's nothing really I've seen either
05:22by way of what they've added.
05:23To your point, would you make a lot
05:25at the receiver position
05:26or just generally Jayden's style of play
05:28where he's going to be a dual threat,
05:29he's going to make plays with his legs,
05:31he's going to be out of the pocket a bunch.
05:32I don't know if he just wants to stand there
05:34and wing it around for 4,200, 4,300.
05:36I'd like nothing more than that.
05:37But I think he's probably going to be more
05:39in the 35-37 range,
05:41and then you're adding another 7-800 as a rusher.
05:44Yeah, I would take under.
05:46I wonder what number
05:48it'd have to get down to
05:50for me to take the over.
05:51You'd take the over on 34, probably?
05:54I don't know that I would.
05:55Because, again, health.
05:56Okay, so assuming health.
05:58Assuming health.
05:58That's what's so hard.
05:59I think that's the neighborhood,
06:01is that 3,400 range.
06:02Because that's kind of where I see it going.
06:03So you think if he played,
06:05it's hard to say 17 games.
06:06Let's just say 16,
06:08because we're assuming health.
06:09Either he sits at the end of the season
06:11because they've locked up the division,
06:12obviously, in week 18, Danny.
06:14Or, you know, for whatever reason,
06:16he misses a game at some point.
06:17Concussion protocol or something else.
06:19Misses one game all year.
06:20You wouldn't take the over on 3,400 yards?
06:23No, it's about, you know,
06:24210 yards a game,
06:25which is what he did
06:25in the magical 2024 season.
06:27He was at almost 3,600, right?
06:29He was, yeah, 3,568.
06:32Yeah.
06:32Okay, so two years later?
06:36Brand new offense.
06:37You know, you got smoke and mirrors last time.
06:39Tough schedule.
06:40The word is out, you know,
06:42in terms of defense.
06:43Generational talent.
06:43Everyone says he's an MVP candidate.
06:45Yeah, not enough to support him.
06:47Not in a prolific way.
06:48This is all checked down,
06:49near the line of scrimmage.
06:50Nothing explosive at this point.
06:52I think you get to those big yardage totals
06:53by hitting a couple of homers.
06:54I don't see where the homers are coming from.
06:56And that's kind of my,
06:57that's still my big sticking point here.
06:59I think you can have a good offense.
07:01I think you'll run the ball.
07:02I think there'll be some cool creative stuff.
07:03Good little yards after the catch.
07:05A few gimmick things here and there,
07:06but I think they're going to be less prolific.
07:08I think they're going to take their time.
07:09I don't think you're going to hurry up
07:10and run twice as many plays as everybody else.
07:12I think they're trying to win 20 to 17
07:14instead of 30 to 29.
07:16If he doesn't surpass the rookie year of yards
07:19playing 16 games, I'd be surprised.
07:22I'll stop short of saying disappointed
07:24because I got to see what the rest of it looks like.
07:25If it is a dependent statistic to your point,
07:29because they're just busy kicking everybody's butts
07:31and they're winning a lot of 24 to 14 games
07:34or running the football well or whatever,
07:36and they're an 11 and six football team,
07:38then who cares?
07:39I mean, I could,
07:40there's not any care at all in the world
07:42for what his numbers are,
07:44but this is such a better scheme offensively.
07:49And it's so much more quarterback friendly
07:50that that would be really,
07:53really disappointing for me.
07:55The scheme they're running is the Ben Johnson scheme.
07:59So that's the Bears offense from last year
08:02and Caleb Williams first year in a new scheme,
08:05which on way less than Jaden Daniels
08:06and had similar weaponry essentially going into the year.
08:10I think Colston Loveland ended up being a beast.
08:12I don't know if Washington has one of those,
08:13but going into the year, very similar.
08:15He threw for 3,942 yards last year as an example.
08:20So if we're saying 3,400 is like reasonable over under,
08:23I don't know.
08:23That would be a little light for me.
08:25That'd be disappointing.
08:26But I also really trust the scheme
08:27and believe in this offense.
08:31I wonder, because again,
08:32this kind of goes back to the conversation
08:34we've had ad nauseum about defense
08:36and helping the quarterback
08:37and those other kinds of things.
08:38I'm just like taking every external factor out
08:42and looking at there was going to be a play
08:44where the quarterback drops back and throws
08:46and we're evaluating that, right?
08:47As we kind of try to do
08:48when we talk about quarterback play,
08:49that's why we don't play the wins and losses game,
08:51et cetera.
08:52I just, I wonder how different it's going to look
08:54and I wonder how prolific
08:56this passing attack is going to be.
08:57I get the sense that they aren't as concerned about that.
09:00Maybe I'm crazy.
09:01You don't think so?
09:02No, I think this is a...
09:04I think when...
09:05I don't know what they think.
09:07I'd imagine it's more along the lines of what I'm saying
09:09than what you're saying,
09:10which is, it seems like when you talk about the passing attack,
09:13you act like the little giants are going to go out there
09:15and they go,
09:16Terry McLaurin's pretty damn good.
09:18Antonio Williams is pretty solid.
09:20Chica Conquo's a pretty good football player.
09:23We've got some weapons that we like.
09:25And oh, by the way,
09:26Jaden Daniels in and of himself,
09:27if he's accurate,
09:28if he's pinpoint,
09:29if he's making throws,
09:30if he's throwing guys open,
09:31if he's extending plays,
09:32doing all the stuff he did in 2024,
09:34all of a sudden,
09:35Jalen Lane and Luke McCaffrey
09:36might even be more helpful
09:37than people think they are.
09:39So I think that's kind of their vision.
09:41Less like,
09:43how could anyone possibly ever get open?
09:45Which is kind of how you feel.
09:46Seems like.
09:47No, it's not that extreme.
09:48But I go.
09:49But more that than the other.
09:50Yeah, I go,
09:51well, look at,
09:52God, look at Ben Johnson in Detroit.
09:53I'd like to see what a lot of offensive coordinators would do
09:55with the best lot receiver plus in the sport,
09:57Nauman Ross St. Brown.
09:58One of the best deep threats in the sport
09:59in Jameson Williams.
10:00A great tight end that's probably sixth or seventh,
10:03depends on your ranking,
10:04in LaPorte in terms of pass catcher.
10:06The best offensive line in the sport.
10:07A veteran quarterback that knows what he's doing.
10:09A thumping running back.
10:10And.
10:11He just did it with the Bears.
10:12Without all of that stuff.
10:13He left and did it in Chicago.
10:14They had a nice offense.
10:16They weren't what Detroit was.
10:17And that's my point.
10:18So.
10:19The.
10:20It's just going to translate.
10:21I hope it does.
10:22He's never.
10:22I mean,
10:23Jane Daniels doesn't take snaps from under center.
10:24We're just assuming all these great things.
10:26Last year,
10:26Caleb Williams had.
10:27I know.
10:28We're assuming it.
10:29And, you know,
10:29a lot of guys have never hit a breaking ball.
10:31Sometimes they still can't.
10:32Some guys.
10:33Now they.
10:33Sometimes they learn how to do it.
10:35We're just assuming all these different steps.
10:37A, he's healthy,
10:38which I'm not assuming.
10:39B,
10:39he takes this like a fish to water.
10:41And without kind of the same level of talent,
10:44you're supposed to make beautiful music.
10:45I think some of these things take time and progress isn't linear.
10:48Third and rushing DVOA last year,
10:50the bears under Ben Johnson.
10:52Sixth in average offense in yards.
10:56But.
10:57Yeah.
10:57It will take time and building up the talent to be the number one offense in
11:01the sport,
11:01probably like the lions had been,
11:03but that was pretty quick with the bears players that were there,
11:06you know,
11:06in a couple of additions,
11:07the scheme works.
11:08You saw it with Kyle.
11:09When he went San Francisco or came here,
11:11it didn't really matter who he had,
11:12where he had.
11:13It's Jabbar Gaffney going for a thousand.
11:14It's Anthony Armstrong going for nine 50.
11:17The offense is,
11:18has worked.
11:19Now.
11:19My,
11:20my question is,
11:21is David Blau going to be able to do it?
11:22Cause he's never done it before that.
11:23I do have questions about,
11:24but if he's good at it,
11:26like Kyle,
11:27you know,
11:27like Ben,
11:28like some of these guys,
11:30then you're probably going to be okay.
11:32A G and D on the fan.
11:32If you've got a thought on any of that,
11:33you can chime in 800-636-1067.
11:37We are getting you ready for Nats pregame.
11:39Before we get out of here,
11:40that's at six 15 on grant.
11:41And Dan.
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