00:00Well, let's talk now to Maziar Ghiyabi, the Director of Iranian Studies at the University of Exeter.
00:07Maziar, welcome, good to see you.
00:09President Trump describing this agreement as a major diplomatic victory, is it?
00:16Good to be with you.
00:18Well, it is a diplomatic success in a time in which escalation seems to be the only path ahead.
00:26I'm not sure it's a diplomatic success with the U.S., because in the first place we should remember our
00:32viewers that the U.S., under Trump's previous administration, sort of canceled the diplomatic agreement that was in place about
00:42the nuclear program that Iran was developing.
00:45So, in a way, Trump basically hit on his own feet and then claimed the success.
00:54Has this war, in your judgment, advanced the national interest of the United States?
01:01I don't think so at all.
01:03I mean, it has actually made Iran far more conscious that the United States and Israel are ready to go
01:11very far in destabilizing the country.
01:14It has brought into power a political establishment now, the second and third generation of the Islamic Republic that is
01:26far more conscious of the double-edged sword of diplomacy.
01:31And therefore, Iran is now in a place where it's more keen to assess its strategic objectives than it was
01:42before.
01:42So, in a way, the United States is in a weaker position, also considering the fact that many of its
01:50military bases have been heavily targeted by Iranian ballistic missiles and that many of its regional allies, particularly the Arab
01:58monarchies of the Persian Gulf, have found that there is a price to be paid to be on the American
02:04side.
02:05Mr. Trump, of course, continues to insist that this Iran deal is better than the one that President Obama signed.
02:15Is it?
02:18Well, the details are just now trickling down, and so we are about to assess.
02:24I think the geopolitical situation has changed dramatically from that of 10 years ago.
02:28So, the agreement is very similar in some respects in terms of limiting Iran's enrichment and sort of diluting some
02:40of its highly enriched uranium.
02:42But at the same time, it seems not to come to terms with some of the outstanding claims that Iran
02:50has put forward, and that have become a very legitimate claim in the eyes of Iranians, for instance, with regards
02:57to the Strait of Hormuz.
02:59I think, fundamentally, this is not a better deal than the JCPOA under Obama, but there was very little Trump
03:09could achieve in the situation that he basically brought himself under the push of the Israeli government.
03:15I'm sure academics like you around the world will be getting their books ready and writing the first chapters on
03:23this.
03:23What does this conflict say about U.S. military power in the Middle East?
03:32This is a very good question.
03:33I'm not sure I'm keen to write about this, and I don't think this is the final chapter of the
03:38confrontation between Israel and Iran, mediated through the intervention of the U.S.
03:43But I do believe that we are witnessing a declining U.S. power, particularly sort of impersonified by the style
03:55and mannerism and the loose ideology of the U.S. president Donald J. Trump.
04:00But also, in a way, the lack of vision that the United States have shown with respect to global affairs,
04:11very much driven, in this case in particular, vis-Ã -vis the question of Iran, by another country, which is
04:18Israel,
04:18which really called the shots in this war for quite some time, for several weeks, before Trump and basically the
04:25American establishment managed to come to a logical conclusion
04:30that this war could not be won on the terms the Israelis have been pushing for.
04:36Mazia, good to see you. Thank you very much indeed for your time.
04:39Mazia Ghiavi, the director of Iranian studies at the University of Exeter.
04:44Mazia Ghia, the director of Middle East and theinias
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