00:00Despite tensions in the Middle East, there is cautious optimism ahead of negotiations
00:05between the United States and Iran and Pakistan's capital, Islamabad, on Saturday.
00:10Global head of shipping research at All Brokerage Limited, Anup Singh, told Reuters
00:15that some results may be reached from this engagement as both the US and Iran wants an
00:21off-ramp from the conflict.
00:23The most likely outcome of this is that we come away with a gradual handover of the
00:34rights to control passage to potentially an independent organization, which represents
00:48the interests of the producers and of the buyers.
00:54So a control of the states by either of the two foreign parties is an unstable equilibrium
01:03and therefore it's unlikely.
01:05So high energy prices are going to be really serious, a long-term issue.
01:11We think inflation risks, yes, they rise.
01:15The way we think about inflation is it's a monetary phenomenon.
01:20Initially, we think as the emerging markets, especially are out of the line of fire in Asia,
01:28to compensate for high energy prices, we think there will be subsidies, there will be fiscal
01:32stimulus.
01:34And the consequences of that is going to be, you know, you have more money supply, the value
01:41of your currency drops.
01:42So, which means you're purchasing power of your won, of your yen, of your rupee, of your
01:47dollar, will all be going down.
01:49So we think emerging markets are at a serious risk.
01:53Do we think there is a global risk of a recession?
01:57It's on the spectrum, it's possible, but we are not estimating that to come through just
02:04yet.
02:05Oil prices climbed on Friday, driven by fresh anxiety over supplies from Saudi Arabia and
02:11as tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained largely frozen.
Comments