00:00Let's speak now to Adel Deschela, a researcher at the Sanaa Center for Strategic Studies.
00:05Thanks so much for your time.
00:07From your assessment of the situation, how close is Yemen to full-scale civil war once more?
00:17Thank you for having me.
00:19I think right now the 22 truce has effectively ended.
00:25The situation has become more difficult because of the Houthis' attacks on international shipping in the Red Sea and the
00:36Gulf of Aden as well as their military escalations against Saudi Arabia and the Yemeni government.
00:44We have also seen increased military activities by Houthis on several fronts, especially in Ma'rib, Ta'ez, Al-Hudaydah
00:54and Al-Bayda.
00:55So I think right now the situations in Yemen are more difficult and we can see more military escalations if
01:05we cannot reach a political solution.
01:09But it seems very difficult to implement any kind of political solutions based on the situations right now.
01:17So on Friday, a defense pact signed between Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey.
01:22We know that Saudi Arabia supports the government of Yemen against the Houthis.
01:27In terms of the agreements of that pact, could we see Turkey and Pakistan have to step in and support
01:35Saudi Arabia?
01:37Let me locally to say that, to mention that Houthis are trying to control the strategic areas in eastern parts
01:46of Yemen.
01:47And also they want to bring Saudi Arabia to this conflict and then to reduce pressure on Iran.
01:57And I think this, the Mecca joint defense agreement between Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey could strengthen regional deterrence.
02:09And the main goal of this agreement is to strengthen, as I mentioned, deterrence and protect Saudi Arabia as well.
02:20And the stability and security in the region, as we have seen, Iran and its non-state actors are attacking
02:28the regional states, especially Gulf states.
02:31And also we have seen Israel.
02:33So I think this is a very important military agreement between these regional Islamic powers.
02:41But keep in mind that Saudis don't need any like military support from this regional power right now.
02:52Saudis are trying to avoid any military escalations.
02:55But in the future, if Houthis attack Saudis, maybe we can see a military escalation supported by Saudi Arabia against
03:04Houthis.
03:05And then if Iran support or support these regional, I mean, non-state actors like Houthis against Saudis,
03:12maybe Pakistan and Turkey will support Saudi Arabia against any attack from Iran.
03:17Of course, it's not the only flashpoint in the region.
03:20Iran and the Houthis are allies, both have power over two very strategic waterways.
03:25How high do you put the risk that these separate conflicts are going to escalate and join up?
03:34I think there are many or three main scenarios.
03:39Number one, we can see, for example, a wider war against Houthis with support of Saudi Arabia
03:48and some regional powers.
03:51Secondly, we can see limited military operations against Houthis.
03:56And maybe, and I hope will not happen, maybe we can see a regional conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran.
04:04And if this happens, then maybe Yemen will pay the price.
04:10And we don't want to see situations like this.
04:13I mean, the situations in the middle and in the region are very difficult.
04:17And right now, Houthis are trying to escalate more and more against Saudis and regional powers,
04:24maybe against other states in the region.
04:26So the situations are very difficult.
04:28But the upcoming days will show us maybe we can see like some political solutions or more escalations.
04:35But unfortunately, the escalations is more than like political solutions.
04:41Thanks, you're welcome.
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