00:00Let's talk to Samuel Romani, the associate fellow at RUSI, the defense and security think tank in London.
00:06Samuel, welcome back. Good to see you. Are these talks the beginning of the end?
00:12Well, I mean, I think that the Trump administration definitely wants them to be the beginning of the end
00:15because it wants to end the war as soon as possible.
00:18But I think that there are still a lot of issues that need to be kind of at play.
00:22The main thing that we're seeing is that the United States is trying to push for some kind of a
00:27grand bargain
00:27where Iran makes unilateral concessions on uranium enrichment
00:30and also withdrawing from the state of Hormuz, whereas the Iranians want a lot more conditions to be attached.
00:36And that kind of divide in expectations is preventing us from reaching a deal.
00:41What do you read into the Iranian foreign minister seemingly flying off hours before the Americans fly in?
00:51Well, I think that that shows the level of mistrust that's on between the two sides
00:55because now we've seen two scenarios where there were negotiations that were being held
00:59and allegedly getting quite close to a deal, and then we've seen military action both in June and now.
01:05So this reflects the fact that even though Pakistan is doing a good job interlocuting between the two sides,
01:11there's still severe mistrust.
01:12Moreover, there are some major sticking points that are much more tangible and real.
01:17Iran wants a full deal.
01:18They want sanctions relief.
01:19They want lifting of the naval blockade on Hormuz, whereas if they get all those things,
01:25they might reopen the strait and make some concessions on uranium enrichment.
01:30This not to mention the fact that they don't want things like their proxy militias
01:33and their ballistic missile capabilities being tied in.
01:36So there is a big gap between the two sides.
01:39Pakistan is trying to bridge that gap, but mistrust and differences still linger.
01:42How well equipped is Pakistan to broker successful negotiations?
01:50Well, Pakistan can serve as a dialogue facilitator, a little bit like how Oman has served,
01:54or more indirectly, Qatar has served in the past.
01:57And it seems to be working well with other countries like Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Turkey
02:02on the brokering process.
02:04We saw them all being acknowledged together by senior Arab officials at the Antalya Diplomacy Forum last weekend.
02:11And the Pakistanis have historically, obviously, a mutual defense pact with Saudi Arabia.
02:17But even during the darkest days of the Saudi-Iranian rift, back in 2016,
02:21after the Al-Nimr execution and the Saudi war with Yemen,
02:25the Pakistanis maintained significant diplomatic back channels and normal diplomatic relations with Iran.
02:30So Pakistan is able to liaise effectively between the Americans, the Gulf states, and the Iranians.
02:36And they've been trusted to carry out negotiations on America's behalf with Iran for many, many years now.
02:42This weekend's talks are presumably a process rather than an event.
02:47What would a successful outcome look like?
02:51Well, a successful outcome would obviously be extending any kind of a two-week ceasefire
02:56that Trump keeps announcing into something more durable.
02:59It would also probably lead to some kind of a lifting of the Strait of Hormuz,
03:04both the blockade, as well as Iran's restrictions on not unfriendly countries shipping oil out from there.
03:10And those would probably be the immediate areas.
03:13And that would probably lead to a platform for further negotiations on other issues.
03:18For example, Israel and Lebanon making sure that their temporary ceasefire becomes more permanent.
03:22The Israelis are decoupling Lebanon from the Iran negotiations,
03:25but Iran has made it very clear that any deal with them has to include peace in Lebanon.
03:30And then things like ballistic missiles and uranium enrichment,
03:34and maybe taking some of the uranium out of Iran that has been enriched over IEA thresholds
03:39and taking them to a third country.
03:42But first, I think it's got to be about Hormuz and about a ceasefire,
03:45and then all these other issues, probably incrementally over time.
Comments