00:00Well, let's get some more analysis now on the entry of the Houthis into this latest conflict in the Middle
00:05East
00:05with Samuel Romani, Associate Fellow at the Russi Think Tank and CEO of Pangaea Geopolitical Risk.
00:12Welcome back to you, Samuel.
00:14So, first of all, just if we could step back and if you could explain, really, who are the Houthis
00:18and how are they linked to Iran?
00:22Well, the Houthis are basically a society-shiaid Islamist group.
00:26They emerged in northern Yemen during the early 1990s, and their leader is the named person, so Mohammed al-Houthi.
00:32And really, over the past decade, they managed to build an alignment with Iran,
00:37and they managed to get security and military support from the IRGC,
00:41including drones and missiles of a long-range variety that can strike the Gulf countries.
00:45And since the Houthis took over Sana'a and became the dominant force in northern Yemen in 2014,
00:51they've been a key spoke of the Iranian so-called axis of resistance.
00:56And they've engaged periodically in missile and drone strikes on energy facilities,
01:01as well as attacks on maritime shipping, and have caused considerable disruption in those areas.
01:06What do you make of the timing of this intervention, and what are the Houthis trying to signal?
01:12Well, the Houthis have actually now proven themselves to be the most militarily effective member of the axis of resistance,
01:18because Hamas has been so degraded by the Israeli strikes since October 7th of 2023.
01:24Hezbollah have also seen their leadership decapitated with Hassan Nasrallah.
01:27And we're seeing the Iraqi militias not really wanting to get very involved in the broader regional conflict,
01:34and Bashar al-Assad in Syria is no longer in power.
01:37So, the Houthis have now proven themselves to be the most valuable dimension of the axis of resistance.
01:43They're trying to show that value and trying to show their solidarity during a moment of crisis.
01:48I think that they've probably waited, because the Iranians have been trying to play this card a little bit later.
01:53So, much of Saudi oil, about 2 million barrels a day, has been relocated from the Strait of Hormuz towards
02:00the Red Sea,
02:01and now the Houthis could potentially, not just by striking Israel, but also through maritime blockades,
02:06pose an existential threat to the Bab-a-Mandis Strait at the same time.
02:10So, this is another escalation of the Iranian war against global energy supply,
02:14and a way for Iran to put more pressure on the United States to stop the war.
02:18Now, you say Iran was waiting to play this card, but how independently are the Houthis acting from Iran,
02:25and what sort of leverage do they have, and could they actually be part of any peace negotiations?
02:31Well, the Houthis obviously have some degree of independence from Iran.
02:33They're not fully proxies who just can be operated from remote control.
02:38They have their own command structure.
02:40They have their own revenue sources that they have to consider.
02:42For example, if they're going to blockade the Strait,
02:44they have to see what that means for their tax revenues that they earn through ports.
02:48They also earn in return revenue from smuggling.
02:52So, it's not just Iranian aid.
02:54In fact, as Iran has become increasingly cash-strapped,
02:56they're reliant much more on their own local and domestic sources of revenue.
02:59So, I think it's very possible that the Iranians may have wanted the Houthis to get involved more aggressively earlier
03:04in the war.
03:05This is what I've heard from the sources in the region.
03:06But the Houthis have been wary about getting involved.
03:08But now they see an opportunity to have a decisive impact and to perhaps have a transformational impact on the
03:15conflict.
03:15Because if they do disable the Babamandab, the pressure on the U.S. will just increase much more dramatically
03:21and their leverage will increase.
03:22So, now I think that this is a confluence between Iranian strategy and Houthis local interests coming together.
03:31Samuel Romani, thank you very much indeed for joining us.
03:34Samuel Romani, Associate Fellow at RUCI.
03:36Thank you very much.
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