00:00Now joining me now is Samuel Rahmani, an Associates Fellow at the Department of Politics and International Relations at the
00:07University of Oxford.
00:09Professor, great to have you there. So first of all, do the U.S. and Israel have the mandate to
00:14attack Iran?
00:17Well, I think that the U.S. and Israel are basically using this to build leverage for any kind of
00:23future diplomatic negotiations.
00:24So it's interesting to see that it actually is keeping the door open, the Iranian foreign minister, to a resumption
00:30of dialogue on the nuclear question this coming week.
00:32And I don't think that the negotiations are necessarily dead or have stopped.
00:36And also I think that if Iran does not compromise not only on its nuclear facilities but also on its
00:42ballistic missile capabilities and regional activities, which the Iranians are very resistant to do,
00:46the U.S. and Israel are trying to show the Iranians that they can carry out severe damage to their
00:51leadership and potentially decapitate the regime entirely.
00:54So that's what I think the U.S. is trying to do here, build leverage and threaten something bigger if
00:58needed.
00:59Well, this happens only days after the latest rounds of nuclear negotiations in Geneva.
01:04We were talking about it just now.
01:06And what will key strategic missteps or red lines will cross that made this escalation almost inevitable?
01:14Well, I think that basically this escalation was widely speculated.
01:18So I was in the UAE actually last week and there was a widespread belief and assumption amongst Emirati diplomats
01:25and business leaders alike that the U.S. was going to do some kind of a limited military strike to
01:31build leverage ahead of these talks.
01:33While the Omanis were being able to convene the Iranians and the Americans together and pass messages between them, the
01:41core issues relating to uranium enrichment, ballistic missiles, and regional actions were not getting resolved.
01:46So this was kind of what was going to inevitably be the trend.
01:50And yes, I do think that the U.S. is paying very close attention to what's happening in Fordow, also
01:55what the Russians have managed to reconstruct in Bushir, as well as Isfahan, as the correspondent noted earlier.
02:01And these concerns about Iranian enrichment have now triggered a military attack.
02:05Well, compared with the 12-day war last year, this time it is not only about limiting Iran's capability of
02:11making nuclear weapons, as Trump urged Iranians to take over the Iranian government.
02:17So what do you think is the endgame of the U.S. this time?
02:22Well, I don't think that the endgame is actually clearly defined and clearly spelled out.
02:26I mean, obviously there's a substantial amount of support for regime change in Iran within Trump's inner circle.
02:33We saw Lindsey Graham, for example, the South Carolina senator, visit the U.S. and Saudi Arabia a little over
02:39a week ago, trying to drum up support amongst regional partners for that.
02:43The Saudis and the Emiratis were very skeptical and they pushed back.
02:47Benjamin Netanyahu has been, and Israel have been, pushing for regime change.
02:51And there was a collective frustration among some of Trump's core supporters that he did not enforce his red line
02:57during the Iranian protests.
02:58When he threatened military action and protesters were killed,
03:01the mass executions didn't happen, maybe, but there were definitely many thousands of protesters who died.
03:07And then the U.S. didn't follow through.
03:10And people were comparing that to Obama's backtrack on Syria.
03:13So he's having to deal with that pressure.
03:16And that's also, I think, encouraging him to pursue something more expansive this time around
03:20and something that's just purely related to nuclear sites.
03:22I think many people are wondering how do domestic U.S. political dynamics factor into the decision-making this time?
03:30Well, I think it's a massive factor over here.
03:33And it's important to keep in mind that there's basically two schools of thought relating to the Iranian issue within
03:38Trump's inner circle.
03:40So on the one hand, you've got a more hawkish wing, which is, as I mentioned, represented by people like
03:46Lindsey Graham,
03:47Ortec Cruz from Texas, who would want to see the U.S. go all in on kind of a military
03:52campaign.
03:53Marco Rubio, Secretary of State, is rumored to be in that camp.
03:56And then there's another camp that's a lot more cautious and a lot more circumspect.
04:00So close confidence in advisors to the president, like Steve Woodcoff and Jared Kushner,
04:04have been known to be much more reluctant to support a military attack.
04:07And also we've seen wings of the MAGA movement basically condemn or criticize the strength of the U.S. alliance
04:14with Israel,
04:15even using the Israel First mantra as a mockery of America First in some of their rhetoric,
04:20and don't want this war at all.
04:21And the Gulf countries have been lobbying and building on that to kind of deter a war.
04:27So Trump has been dancing between these two factions within his coalition,
04:30and that divide has prevented him from making a decision.
04:33And now, it seems as if, at least for now, he's firmly aligned with the more pro-war camp.
04:38And he believes that his political fortunes will be strengthened by aligning with them.
04:42And that's the calculation that led to the attack today.
04:44And what are the likely consequences of a prolonged military confrontation?
04:49Because some of our experts have said this could be prolonged,
04:54and then we're looking at the broader repercussion in the Middle East.
04:58And also, we're looking at the security issue, the oil markets and other groups like Houthis and Hezbollah.
05:04So we're looking at a lot of elements involved this time.
05:08Well, absolutely.
05:10I mean, we saw the interrelationship, and we saw the level of integration between various theaters of escalation after October
05:167th, right?
05:17We saw the rapid spillover to Lebanon, to Yemen, to even periodically causing discord inside Iraq.
05:25Very, very complicated relationships between the GCC countries and Israel.
05:29The Abraham Accords were effectively stopped.
05:30And the same kind of integration of theaters will occur and transpire this time around.
05:36I mean, I think it's very likely that if Iran, for example, were to take the step to disrupt oil
05:41transit in the Strait of Hormuz,
05:42the Houthis would force-multiply against that along the Red Sea and the Bab-a-Mandum Strait,
05:47effectively choking the Saudis off.
05:48I think it's no coincidence that Jabal Ali was in the firing line this time around,
05:52as long as it's because it's near American military presences,
05:55but it's also a vital port that the UAE would need as a hedge against Hormuz.
06:00So it's very clear already, even in these early hours,
06:03that there are integrations of various different theaters.
06:06There's a Gulf Theater, an Israel-Iran Theater, and potentially Lebanon and Yemen and others getting dragged in.
06:12So I think that there is a big risk of a regional war escalating.
06:16I don't think that the U.S. is easily going to be able to achieve regime change in Iran,
06:19because even if you assassinate some of the key members of the clerical establishment or the IRGC,
06:24those institutions have the ability to renew themselves and bring out new figures and new leaders,
06:29just like we've seen after Soleimani was assassinated or after the wave of attacks in 2024 and 2025.
06:36And the only way to do that would be a ground invasion or an amphibious landing,
06:39which would be anathema to anybody in Trump's inner circle,
06:43because of the casualties, the cost, and the risk of an Iraq or even worse scenario unfolding.
06:48So I think that it'll fall short of regime change, but a regional war is definitely possible.
06:52Thank you very much for your insights.
06:54That is Samuel Romani, an associate fellow from the University of Oxford.
06:58Thank you, Paul.
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