00:00Yes, a president with such a strong social media presence is a new force in global diplomacy and
00:06it's not always the most diplomatic tone and our reporting, talking to officials in Washington
00:12as well as diplomats in the Middle East, suggests that Iran isn't that keen on some of the president's
00:21sentiments and it is making it more difficult to resume negotiations and do the very difficult
00:27work of brokering some kind of longer-term deal to bring an end to this conflict. The specific
00:35problem is probably around the Strait of Hormuz, which is the focus of the whole crisis now.
00:43Last weekend, if you remember, the Iranians said that the strait was open and the president was
00:48very quick to say, well, our blockade stayed in place and I think that made it difficult for the
00:54talks to resume and that's what's dominated this week with the president continuing to say that
01:01the blockade is in place and to threaten extreme actions if he doesn't get his way.
01:10What does all this mean for energy markets though? We've been watching the price of oil creeping up
01:15through this week and heading for a weekly gain for the first time since the war started.
01:19That's right. I think that, again, going back to last Friday, Stephen, when the Iranians said the
01:28strait was open, there was a really positive reaction from oil traders who thought that finally there
01:33was a likely resolution and the ships might start leaving the Gulf and get back and the energy market
01:39could begin the long process of getting back to normal. And I think this week that optimism has
01:43really faded and we've seen a steady ratcheting up in the oil price. As a result, it's really worth
01:49bearing in mind that although the intense military action, the bombing has stopped, the strait is
01:56probably more closed than it ever has been and we're not getting the oil and the fuel that we need
02:01out of the Persian Gulf and it is increasingly going to strain energy markets and have an impact on
02:08consumers around the world. How much pressure is Iran really under then from the US blockade? I mean,
02:14the whole point of these barrage of social media posts is to pressure Iran. That would be the US
02:19argument, surely. Yeah, it's a really, really interesting and important question. It does seem
02:24to be having an impact on Iran's ability to export oil, but it had been exporting oil throughout the war
02:30and exporting oil at very healthy prices. So it's probably got a little bit of a financial buffer.
02:35I think the really interesting question for people in energy markets and who are watching to see what
02:43happens is at what point if Iran can't export, it has to shut down its oil fields because it doesn't
02:50have the room to put the oil. That's what we've seen in countries like Kuwait and Iraq during this
02:55crisis, exactly the same thing. And there is some view among oil people that because Iranian oil fields
03:02are quite old, that when you shut them down, that's a big problem to the long term prospects of those
03:07fields and the Iranians will want to avoid it. That's one view. The other view is that the Iranians
03:12are very resilient, that they are no strangers to conflict. There are times that oil production has
03:18been suppressed there in the past and they've come through it. So divided views.
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