00:00I feel like it's so weird. It feels kind of calm today, and yet it is very weird considering what
00:06has happened over the weekend and continues to happen over in the Middle East. Give us kind of
00:12top of mind for yourself right now and how you're thinking the situation. Does it go on longer term?
00:16Does it go on shorter? Like, how are you thinking about it? Yeah, thank you. Well, it's anything but
00:21calm in the region. I think we've seen a significant widening of this conflict by pretty
00:28much any metric. You all mentioned, for example, you have energy infrastructure that's now been hit
00:34in various Gulf countries. This was considered a red line, and yet the Iranians have gone forward.
00:40We see proxies engaging, Hezbollah actually engaging overnight, then prompting a fairly significant
00:46Israeli offensive that is now ongoing in Lebanon, and there's even the potential for an Israeli ground
00:53incursion into Lebanon. And you're seeing the Iranians continue to respond in various ways,
01:00including setting fighter jets to Qatar that then had to be intercepted. So, I mean, by pretty much
01:08any metric, this conflict is widening. It now is embroiling Israel plus 10 Arab countries, and you're
01:17even seeing Iranian strikes hit as far as Cyprus, where they've gone after a British military base
01:23not once but twice. So, I think for Iran, they are pulling out all the stops. I think that they
01:29see
01:30the stakes here as existential, and so they're going to widen and exact as much cost as they can in
01:38the
01:38hopes, perhaps, that the U.S. and Israel and others will then look to potentially de-escalate.
01:45I don't think this is a days-long engagement. I think we're talking weeks and maybe even months.
01:53Weeks or months. You mentioned what Iran has done in response just in recent days,
02:00and I think one thing that's notable is the allies that the U.S. and Israel find more so in
02:05the Middle
02:06East than in Europe, for example. I'm curious who Iran has in its corner. Can it rely on any of
02:14its partners, China, for example, to help at all?
02:21It's actually alone. We've not seen significant support beyond perhaps rhetorical support
02:29from Russia and China. We don't know, of course, what's happening covertly.
02:36Iran actually has managed to alienate the Gulf, which, frankly, up until this latest conflict,
02:44the Gulf had actually been working hard to de-escalate tension and to insist that there
02:49should not be war against Iran. Now, because of Iran's reaction and the ways in which they have
02:57ensnared these various Gulf countries, you're seeing Gulf countries galvanize their support
03:02against Iran. I'm not saying we're going to see military action by the Gulf, but it's very clear
03:10that Iran is really alone. It has its proxies, but even they, again, are weakened. Let's wait and see.
03:16I think the other shoe to drop will be if the Houthis choose to engage once again, and that could
03:23actually further snarl commercial and shipping traffic in the Gulf and around the Babel Mendeb,
03:30another key choke point in the region. How weakened are Iran's proxies, and how deep do they go? It
03:38does seem like a lot of leadership, official or otherwise, has been taken out, but how much do
03:43we know about that, which will speak to their ability to come back? Well, we've seen the so-called
03:50axis of resistance that is comprised of Iran's proxies very much unraveled. Hamas very much on the
03:58back foot. Hezbollah, yes, they mounted, frankly, a rather tepid drone and missile strike on northern
04:06Israel, no damage even from it. We haven't heard much from Iran's proxies in Iraq. They've been
04:15relatively quiet. Even the Houthis have remained on the sidelines. Now, I say that with some trepidation,
04:21because I do think we could see the Houthis engage. But I think it's fair to say that Iran's
04:28proxies have really been substantially cut down to size, and they really don't pose the same threat
04:36that they had, let's say, certainly before October 7. Again, I would put one caveat, which is the
04:42Houthis, and they really could engage and snarl Red Sea shipping and go after U.S. and Israeli targets.
04:51That is something I think we could see in the coming days.
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