00:00What does it mean to you and the team for the president to potentially be losing control?
00:04How do you use that word?
00:06So I think this all flows directly from this question of what the actual objectives are for the war and
00:11how the president sees success.
00:13You know, when we look out right now at the war and the current situation, it's unclear how the United
00:19States and the president can declare victory without laying out for the American people what it is he sought to
00:25achieve.
00:25We've seen varying forms of him laying that out, whether it be from detailing blowing up and destroying the ballistic
00:32missile force in the Navy, which we've seen a lot of effort to do.
00:36And it sounds like it's been rather successful.
00:38But then also looking for the Iranian regime to capitulate and or fall directly.
00:43And with that question looming over all of this, we have now a shifting narrative.
00:47If we think back just just a couple of days or a week, the Iran seemed to be fully on
00:53their back foot, lashing out, but having suffered a massive hit from the U.S. and Israel.
00:58But here, after further increases in oil prices and clarity that the United States cannot quickly reopen the strait, it
01:06seems to be shifting significantly.
01:08And the statements from Iran's leader today seem to imply that they certainly seem to see it that way.
01:12And so that raises questions as to how the president can move forward here and whether he still feels it's
01:17possible to declare victory in the short term or he has to escalate with the hope of forcing the Iranians
01:23to de-escalate, which has not been successful so far.
01:25Two very different options.
01:27I mean, does one say to you that if he continues to move forward, which it seems to be the
01:31case at this point, although we're talking about boots on the ground and whether or not that will happen ultimately.
01:36But does that to you then say or you and the team that potentially the president is losing control of
01:42this war if he continues to move forward?
01:45So I think the problem we're seeing here is, again, not about the president, as we just heard before, losing
01:51control of the actions that are happening, but really the unanticipated or in some cases very anticipated consequences of the
01:58war continuing.
01:59The longer this goes, the greater the impact on the global economy and the greater the impact on U.S.
02:06forces.
02:06Right. On that front, we had a U.S. aircraft that was apparently hit by Iranian fire, make an emergency
02:11landing yesterday.
02:12Things like that are going to increase and keep happening.
02:15Accidents will happen and the Iranians will get lucky.
02:17And that raises the political and the cost of lives in this conflict.
02:21And on the economic side, we're seeing it day to day.
02:24The rise in oil prices are putting pressure on everything around the globe, with inflation being the key word right
02:30now.
02:30That's starting heavily to impact economies in East Asia and Asia writ large that are most reliant on the Strait
02:36of Hormuz.
02:37But that will spread to the United States as well, impacting what is already seen as an affordability crisis.
02:42So I think those are the factors that stand to kind of increase without movement towards de-escalation in the
02:49short term.
02:50You know, Adam, I'm glad you brought up other countries here, because as Carol often reminds us, what happens there
02:57is not a vacuum.
02:58And we have to look at Iran. We have to not just look at Iran in the Middle East, but
03:02we have to look at China.
03:02We have to look at Russia. We have to look at Ukraine.
03:05And we got a headline earlier today about how the Kremlin would potentially stop sharing intel with Iran if the
03:14U.S. cut off aid to Ukraine.
03:17What are you watching in that region and sort of the dynamics that Putin is playing with with regard to
03:23Iran?
03:25Yeah, the offer from the Kremlin certainly seemed too cute by half, right?
03:29This effort to try and equate the two wars together and highlight that its support of Iran is no different
03:34than the U.S. support of Ukraine.
03:36And there's no doubt that Moscow is likely relishing in that moment.
03:39And as you said, though, there is there are clear consequences of this war already and and what happens if
03:46it continues on other conflicts or potential conflicts.
03:48In Ukraine, the biggest clear problem is this question of U.S. hardware and particularly interceptor missiles and how many
03:56may be available to provide to Ukraine so they can continue to defend their cities and their territory writ large
04:02from the onslaught of Russian ballistic missiles and drones.
04:05And when we look to the Indo-Pacific, you know, every day the United States is using exquisite weaponry that
04:12would be needed in a conflict if something were to occur in the South China Sea or over Taiwan with
04:17China.
04:17And there's no doubt that Beijing is taking note of that.
04:20And, you know, as you've heard from countless experts, the timeline to produce and rearm for the United States is
04:27not a question of weeks or months, but likely years.
04:30And that will change how the United States can conduct its operations anywhere in the world, but particularly in the
04:36Indo-Pacific.
04:36And that Putin headline offers to help to stop sharing intel with Iran that came from Politico.
04:42And Politico also reported that the U.S., Carol, rejected the Putin offer for Iran-Ukraine quid pro quo.
04:48Yeah, you know, there's just, you know, it's like this giant chess board.
04:54And I just think about.
04:55Yeah, a game of risk.
04:55Yeah, but I feel like I need more than just two people playing because it just feels like there's so
04:59many pieces.
05:00And this is what you guys do, Adam.
05:02You think about the geoeconomic implications of all of this.
05:05I, you know, you guys, we do, we keep thinking about what all of this is doing to the global
05:11economy.
05:11And it does feel like we're going to be a different world going forward.
05:15I can't tell whether that's a better world and more collaborative or are we going to be more divided after
05:20this.
05:21How are you guys continuing to report that out and think about it?
05:25So we're certainly trying to keep our eyes outside of the region and, you know, for example, focusing on the
05:31things that are happening that are still very consequential for the global economy and for the United States, like Prime
05:36Minister Takayashi of Japan's visit yesterday to the White House.
05:39You know, that visit was originally all about China.
05:43It was all about framing Japan's interests and keeping, as Japan has hoped, the United States in line as it
05:48negotiates with Beijing in what was supposed to be a meeting just a couple of days from now, but has
05:54now been delayed between President Trump and President Xi.
05:56But even there, we saw the direct impacts of the war.
05:59We saw pressure on her and Japan to live up to the president's expectations, but also this move now for
06:06Japan to buy more oil from the United States and decrease its reliance on the Middle East, given this type
06:11of conflict.
06:12And I think we're going to see lots of changes spiraling out from the war, some anticipated and some not.
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