00:00Stephanie, let me go to you first, because in order to talk about what's happening in the macro economy, we've
00:06got to factor in the data that we got this week.
00:09And the first quarter GDP showed just how much, how resilient the U.S. economy is, in part because of
00:15spending on AI.
00:18Yeah, I mean, it was a great report. A lot of it had to do with AI.
00:22A large share of the CapEx spending was AI related, especially in terms of equipment.
00:27That said, it still painted a picture of an economy that's doing fairly well.
00:32The consumer was running at 1.6 percent, not great, but also you had some really bad weather in January
00:36and February.
00:37So I actually expect the second quarter to show slightly even better consumption.
00:42You still have the AI tailwinds, and we're in a backdrop where you're starting to see signs that the labor
00:47market is picking up.
00:48So you put that all together, and that's not really a great backdrop for the Fed to be easing,
00:52and certainly focusing on trimming inflation and trying to strip through some of the inflation dynamics
00:57and paint a picture that it's less than it actually is on headline.
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