00:00The words of Kevin Walsh, inflation is a choice, the Fed must take responsibility for it.
00:04Does that sound like a man who's about to cut interest rates?
00:06Listen, I think at the end of the day, when you even look at the Fed Fund's futures market here,
00:11cuts are coming back into the market.
00:12So I still think we'll get one or two by the end of the year.
00:16Look at December 26 so far, June 27 so far.
00:20You've really priced back a cut in as we start to move towards the end of the year.
00:23So yes, I do think ultimately we are working towards a cut here.
00:26I think the bond market's figured that out, kind of following this kind of initial panic around the start of
00:31the war.
00:32Two-year yield has come back down, 10-year yields.
00:34I mean, for as chaotic as the world has been, we're sitting here with a 10-year yield still at
00:38about 425.
00:41Not a lot has really changed from the bond market's view here.
00:44And stock's close to all-time highs.
00:46Oh, at all-time highs, right?
00:47Let's get into that.
00:48Yeah.
00:48Why do you think this is more than just a position squeeze?
00:52So when you go back and you kind of take stock of what the leadership before the war
00:57and now as we kind of, we think kind of move towards the ending phase, it's not that terribly different.
01:02I think really important yesterday, cyclicals made new relative highs versus defensives.
01:08That's kind of our view of how the market perceives the economy.
01:12So things still in pretty good condition from that perspective.
01:15When you look at the quality of this advance under the surface, something like 50% of the S&P
01:20made a one-month high on Friday.
01:22That's a really good reading.
01:23It tends to lock in some durability to the advance.
01:27Something like 60% of the Russell 2000 made a one-month high.
01:30I think this is suggestive of more than just a bounce from the March lows.
01:35There's some durability behind this.
01:37What it means for the next couple weeks with a very overbought market, I do not know.
01:41But if you're looking six months out, I still think we're higher than where we are here.
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