00:00Should we rerun our conversation of yesterday about where the stocks are too complacent?
00:03I mean, they were down a bit yesterday, they're supposedly up a bit today,
00:06so maybe there's a different complexion to it.
00:08But what are you watching for?
00:09We just had a conversation about how some of the specifics, actually,
00:12of any deal out of Islamabad might matter to markets.
00:17Yeah, I think that was a fair assessment.
00:19It was pretty remarkable to basically close that opening gap from Sunday
00:22that we saw in the E.S.
00:23And I think basically the market is still, as we've been saying,
00:26is looking through a lot of the U.S.-Iran noise,
00:28providing there is a direction of travel for a deal.
00:31So obviously, you know, we don't know necessarily if Iran will attend talks
00:34and we don't know if the ceasefire necessarily will be extended.
00:38The market for now is looking optimistic
00:40and hoping that we will get some sort of extension of a ceasefire.
00:44But that can only take you so far.
00:46If they keep rolling and rolling this ceasefire and Hormuz and Reign's closed,
00:50then that is obviously going to be a sticking point for the market.
00:52But it's not really looking to price that at the moment.
00:54Instead, what you've got filling the void is you've got this air optimism
00:57as Neil was just discussing.
00:59Then you've also got a relatively upbeat earnings outlook for Q1.
01:03You've seen Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, all relatively positive.
01:07Yes, Q2 may be a slightly different story, maybe a bit more downbeat story.
01:11But for now, the market just isn't really pricing that.
01:14GE, RTX, 3M, Northrop, Halliburton, GM, all reporting numbers today.
01:18I think Boeing's tomorrow.
01:19I spoke a little bit earlier.
01:22How much of this is to do with the fact that hedge funds are re-leveraging,
01:25that you've still got the CTAs still kind of pushing pretty hard,
01:30though the Fed's pushing money into the system as well?
01:32Is there a kind of background liquidity story here which I'm missing?
01:37Yeah, I think that definitely could be a factor to some extent.
01:40We've seen a lot of the CTA activity.
01:42We saw it last week.
01:43We've seen it follow through into this week.
01:45And that's definitely giving some extra juice to things.
01:47But I think also it's a case of attention's market span.
01:51We've had all this U.S.-Iran conflict.
01:53And we are kind of slowly moving back towards some of the things
01:56which have proved supportive in the past.
01:58Like I said, this AI optimism, which if you're in Asia,
02:02you're seeing the KOSPI hit record highs.
02:04You're seeing gains to the TIEX.
02:06There's also, you don't really want to be missing out on that rally
02:08because you have a bearish view, but it just isn't holding water at the moment.
02:13How challenged is the U.K. right now?
02:14We had jobs data suggesting that there's been a further, what, 11,000 cuts to payrolls.
02:19Part of the energy story seems to be in the mix there for employers.
02:22We've got political risk on the horizon.
02:24How's the U.K. looking?
02:26Yeah, so obviously, you know, the caveats for today's U.K. jobs data is a lot of it was pre
02:29-conflict.
02:30And I think for the U.K., obviously, you know, that March data you said,
02:33that was relatively negative.
02:34I think we need to see the totality of this week's data.
02:37So we've got inflation on the data slate tomorrow.
02:39That gives a bit of an indication as to what the immediate energy pass-through was.
02:43I think the PMIs might actually be more interesting.
02:45So we saw last month, you know, I think it was input inflation for manufacturers.
02:49That was the highest since Black Wednesday.
02:51So we need to kind of see how that plays out.
02:54But that may be something which takes a few months to become slightly more obvious in the data.
02:58I still think there's a reticence on the Bank of England to potentially hike rates.
03:02So you could see yields come down.
03:04And then if you are looking for a steepener candidate, the U.K. could be one.
03:06Because, as you mentioned, we do have a lot of this U.K. political uncertainty,
03:10which could be on display today.
03:11And we do have Ollie Robbins delivering his testimony today.
03:15Adam, thank you very much indeed.
03:17Yeah, we'll be across that, certainly the U.K. politics, with that testimony,
03:21starting at around 9 a.m. U.K. time.
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