00:01Jim Chalmers has been painting a pretty bleak picture of the Australian economy for some
00:06weeks now in light of this war in the Middle East, saying the Australian economy is hostage
00:12to developments in the Strait of Hormuz.
00:16But from his press conference, some key takeaways we can glean, a bit of a forward sizzle for
00:22the upcoming May budget, which are that savings will be smaller, we will see revenue lower
00:31than expected and changes to the capital gains tax discount are all but certain, we just don't
00:38know the exact contours and scope of those changes.
00:42But the Treasurer repeatedly spoke about intergenerational equity being front of mind when it comes to
00:50reforms in this May budget.
00:52Now, on the savings measure, the Treasurer said, you know, it's not what was penciled
01:00in over the summer.
01:02And you can infer from that that spending will be higher.
01:07For example, the cut to the fuel excise is costing $2.5 billion over just a three-month period.
01:14And there is speculation that the excise could be extended in the May budget.
01:19That's a big spending item.
01:21When it comes to savings, though, reining in the cost of the NDIS will be doing the majority of the
01:29heavy lifting when it comes to finding savings in the budget.
01:34That program costs $42 billion this year.
01:37By the end of the forward estimates, so 2028-29, it's projected to cost $62 billion a year.
01:44The Treasurer says Labor is absolutely committed to the scheme, but it must be sustainable, flagging that there will be
01:52major cuts in order to rein in that program to about 5% to 6% growth per year.
01:58This has been a really big part of our pre-budget deliberations.
02:03It is easily the most important part of the savings package that we will present on budget night.
02:12There have been many, many hours of deliberations.
02:15And again, I thank the colleagues for that.
02:17So, the Treasurer will be meeting with state and territory Treasurers tomorrow to discuss changes to the NDIS and the
02:28redistribution of responsibilities to state governments for things like foundational support,
02:35so early learning interventions through a program called Thriving Kids.
02:39This is part of a GST deal that was secured, I think, two years ago.
02:45Basically, the government increasing its proportion of federal funding for hospitals in exchange.
02:51State and territory governments will boost their contributions for early intervention for autism or learning disabilities.
03:00And we are expecting that Health Minister Mark Butler will announce more detail about these potential cuts, or these cuts,
03:09but exactly what that looks like in a National Press Club address on Wednesday.
03:14Meanwhile, business groups and community organisations, they're getting their budget requests in too.
03:20They are.
03:21So, we have heard from more than 50 community organisations spearheaded by the Australian Council of Social Services today,
03:27Gemma, calling for an increase in tax on gas exports of 25%.
03:34Similarly, calling for negative gearing to be scrapped immediately on investments and phased out entirely over five years.
03:46Community organisations say that would raise up to $17 billion a year in the federal budget,
03:51which could be redistributed towards boosting JobSeeker or Youth Allowance and paying for electrification of social housing.
04:00Now, we've also heard from business groups, the Business Council of Australia and others,
04:06advocating for the government to commit to scrapping 25% of red tape requirements for business by 2030.
04:15All of these measures are things the government has said it is interested in doing,
04:21that it is going to work towards or even prioritise in the budget.
04:24But as always, budgets aren't just about balancing the books, it's also balancing expectations.
04:30And there are, I think still at this stage, many balls in the air.
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