00:01You do have some smaller Pacific Island countries right at the end of the supply chains who
00:06are already imposing restrictions and again that's less because of immediate shortages
00:12but because they can see those shortages coming at them very very quickly. So there are countries
00:16like Tuvalu and the Republic of Marshall Islands and the slightly larger ones there's a little
00:21bit more buffer, no complacency but countries like Fiji, Vanuatu and others of that sort
00:28of size, a bit larger. So they're still okay through until perhaps May or June or so. They
00:34believe their existing stocks will hold until then but after that there's a world of uncertainty.
00:40So there is a real anxiety in the Pacific about what will happen towards from the middle of
00:45the year onwards and there's a deep worry about that because much of the Pacific does still
00:50run on diesel. So if they can't get the diesel that they normally contracted to get then they
00:55could be facing some very serious economic and social problems with many aspects of everyday
01:00life simply shuddering to a halt.
01:02So what's the significance of this declaration?
01:06Well the Prime Minister of Solomon Islands who's currently the chair of the Pacific Islands
01:10forum has invoked or triggered the Bikitawa declaration. That's basically the main emergency declaration
01:16mechanism used by the Pacific. It was used most recently for COVID when that was really starting
01:21to cause havoc in the Pacific, particularly to Pacific economies. It was also used in other
01:25instances, for example when Australia went into Solomon Islands through Ramsey. Now there
01:30is a bit of a question mark over whether he's able to do this without consulting all Pacific
01:34leaders. He's invoked the so-called Troika, the current former and future chairs of PIF.
01:41But leaving that question to one side at the moment and presuming this is endorsed, it does
01:46look like a serious recognition of just how much anxiety there is in the Pacific about what the
01:51future might look like. Jeremiah Minnelli says the Pacific needs to work together to try and
01:55source fuel and ensure that it keeps going, suggesting they might need to look at options
02:00like pooling fuel resources or trying to purchase in bulk effectively on behalf of the whole Pacific,
02:06perhaps working with Australia and New Zealand as well to ensure that when the situation doesn't
02:12get any better, if there are real shortages coming down the track, that the Pacific isn't
02:16totally cut off. So it is a measure of the level of anxiety about what might happen, not
02:21what's happening necessarily right now, but what might happen in just a few months.
02:25And what can Australia do to help the Pacific, Stephen?
02:29Yeah, look a few ideas are being kicked around, or more than a few ideas, and we're now seeing
02:34a slight intensification of the discussion I think between Australia and the Pacific on that.
02:38For example, Chris Bowen, the Energy Minister, dialled into this Troika meeting to discuss
02:42the issue yesterday when Pacific leaders met in Fiji. A number of ideas are being kicked about.
02:50Analysts are very bullish about this idea of joint procurement. They think creating effectively
02:55a pool is a really good idea and will help Pacific nations. Another idea that I'm told
03:00is being kicked about, perhaps slightly more unusually, is an idea to try and source fuel from
03:06Indopaycom, US military command, which has got its own capabilities as well as its own stocks,
03:11obviously in Hawaii and places like that. That's an idea that Australia and New Zealand, I'm
03:16told, have been discussing with the United States. The Foreign Minister, Penny Wong, was
03:20asked what Australia might do and she said whilst discussions were, or she suggested discussions
03:25were still in their fairly preliminary stages, she said Australia was looking at what it could
03:30do to help.
03:33We are engaging very closely with our Pacific friends and neighbours. We know this is a challenge
03:41for the region, it's a challenge for Australia and it's a challenge for the countries of
03:47the region. We will continue to work together on this.
03:49But it's another reminder of course Jade, just how vulnerable the Pacific nations are to
03:54external shocks like this. And of course I think it's very likely to say over the coming
03:58weeks and months people in the Pacific, even more than governments here in Australia, will
04:03be eyeing exactly what Donald Trump decides to do very closely indeed.
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