00:00Right. So right now, the United States and Iran are fighting a war of attrition. The United States
00:06is trying to degrade Iran's military capacity, and Iran is trying to strangle the world economy.
00:14And it turns out that Iran is putting a lot of pressure on the GCC. And I think at the
00:20end of
00:20the day, the United States will be compelled to send ground forces. Once the United States sends
00:25ground forces, there's no turning back. It's all in. The sunk cost fallacy kicks in. It'll be
00:31another Vietnam for the United States because Iran is a mountain fortress. And the United States right
00:37now doesn't have the manpower, the manufacturing capacity, and the political will to fight a long
00:43war of attrition on the ground in Iran. Right. So I think because of what you've said at the end
00:48there,
00:48it's highly unlikely that Trump would commit ground forces because he's always pledged not to. And I
00:53think he would see the inherent danger of that. So if he doesn't commit ground forces,
00:58how do you see this war playing out? Well, right now, if Trump doesn't commit ground troops,
01:05he does have a variety of options. The first option is just to simply declare victory and call it a
01:12day.
01:12Unfortunately, the problem with that is that US bases are still exposed. The GCC economies are still
01:18under pressure. The ship of Hormuz is still closed. And there are no signs that Iran is interested in
01:25peace negotiations. Iran feels as though it has the upper hand because it has the political will
01:30and the resources to draw this war out. Now, let's assume that Trump does withdraw from the Middle East.
01:36And what happens is that the GCC nations of Saudi Arabia, Iran, Qatar, Kuwait, UAE,
01:44now are forced to pay a ransom to Iran because they, they supply the world with their oil for the
01:52ship of Hormuz. 20% of the world's oil flows for the ship of Hormuz, but in return, they get
01:56food.
01:57So the GCC nations input anywhere from 80 to 90% of their food from overseas. And so basically,
02:04the center of gravity shifts from the petrodollar to whatever financial system that Iran wants to
02:11focus on. And it could be brakes, it could be gold, it could be anything. But remember,
02:15the problem with that is that the US economy is a Ponzi scheme. It's dependent on the GCC investing
02:21in AI and tech stocks in startups like Uber in order to finance the US economy. If this financing
02:29stopped, then the US economy could face collapse. And this means that these young men could not afford
02:36their only fence anymore. And this could lead to a revolution in the streets. So the consequences
02:41for America would be dire if America were to retreat from the Middle East.
02:45I mean, it seems that the, the key part of all this sort of economic strangulation, if you like,
02:51by Iran, is the Strait of Hormuz. We've already seen in the last few hours today that the, the successor
02:59to Ayatollah Khomeini, his son, has come out. And apparently, we haven't seen him or heard from him
03:04directly, but there's a statement in which he talks about keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed
03:10indefinitely. If that was to happen, what would be the consequences for the global economy? And how
03:16soon would we see those consequences? Well, I mean, the consequences would be dire, because cheap energy,
03:23cheap petroleum products are the very basis of the global modern economy. So it just wouldn't be
03:29jet fuel that would be affected, but also be food. Because remember, food is produced by fertilizer,
03:35which comes from the GCC, as well as sulfuric acid, which, which is, which helps the process of
03:43semiconductor production. So artificial intelligence, food production, global travel are all dependent on
03:50products from the GCC. It's only been two weeks that the Strait of Hormuz has been closed for almost two
03:57weeks now. And already we're seeing high oil prices surpassing $100 a barrel. Iran says that
04:03they want to move it to $200 a barrel, which signals that they want the Strait of Hormuz closed for
04:09months. And remember, even if Iran were to open up the Strait of Hormuz, it would take weeks before
04:15oil production continues. So I think we've, for the global economy, I think we've reached the point of
04:21no return. And, and in the future, global economies have to commit to a bit of deindustrialization,
04:29and even mercantilism in order to survive future shocks. So if you go to Southeast Asia, Vietnam
04:35and Thailand have already ordered the government workers to work from home in order to save fuel.
04:41You've pointed out that the Gulf Corporation Council monarchies, the GCC, as you've alluded to
04:47several times here, are structurally unusual states, because they're propped up by oil
04:53desalination, that they don't have their own water supply naturally, and American protection. You say
04:59correctly, they were built in open desert with no food security, as you said, 80% imported, no water
05:06security, the desalination dependency, no geographic defenses, they're flat, exposed terrain, no demographic
05:14cohesion. In places like Dubai, for example, 90% of the population are expats, and no independent
05:21security architecture reliant on the US, who have bases, obviously, in many of the states there.
05:27If you put all this together, is what's happening now, in terms of the tactics that Iran are deploying,
05:35including the threats to desalination, but also targeting, obviously, targeted hotels and airports and
05:43so on, going to the heart of what the states there would like to see as the future of their
05:47economy,
05:48which is tourism, sport, entertainment, clearly designed to scare people away from that.
05:54Is this now representing an existential threat, do you think, to the business model of the GCC
06:01states going forward?
06:02Right. So the most vulnerable city, and often the most glamorous city in the GCC is Dubai. And for many
06:12years, Dubai has been very successful in cultivating an image as the new city of London, as a new Hong
06:18Kong
06:19of the Middle East. And thousands of these millionaires flocked to Dubai for the glamorous
06:25lifestyle as well as the tax-free aspect of the city. But the reality is that this was all premised
06:33on
06:34global peace, on Pax Americana, on the capacity of America to project power all around the world
06:40and provide security guarantees to the GCC. Now this aura of inevitability and invincibility of
06:48American empire has been shattered. And once an illusion is shattered, there's actually no coming
06:52back from this. And that's what people don't really appreciate about this war. This war is not directed,
06:59not just directed at Israel. This war is not directed just at the GCC and the illusion of American empire.
07:05This war is directed at American empire itself. And what people don't appreciate is the eschatological
07:13aspects of this war in that Iran sees a moral duty, a moral imperative from God to destroy the great
07:21Satan, which is the American empire. And the base of the American empire, of course, is the global economy.
07:27Right. At the heart of the heart and the head of the American economy is the president of the United
07:33States. You've argued that Trump is not the most powerful person in America. And you've inferred that
07:40actually the real power base is Israel. Explain that. Right. So actually don't say the real power base
07:48is Israel. What I say is that the real power base are a collection of six societies that have an
07:55eschatological view of this war. And the secret societies include the Freemasons, which are now
08:01called the Rosicrucians and the Knights Templars. They include Jewish organizations called the Sepertine
08:06Frankis, who are embedded in religious movements called Shabbat Lubavitch. And then you have the
08:12Jesuits. You have a collection of secret societies. And they believe that a war in the Middle East
08:19would start a process that would culminate in the end times and return of Jesus, the arrival of the
08:26Jewish Messiah, the building of a one world government. They have different eschatologies,
08:31but a lot of their timeframes do align. So where they converge is that there has to be a war
08:38in the
08:39Middle East to kick things off. This war in the Middle East will lead to the defeat of the American
08:44Empire. And this will lead to the culmination of the Greater Israel Project, where Israel is able
08:49to control the Middle East from the Nile to the Euphrates. Once the Greater Israel Project is in
08:55place, it will transform into the Pax Judaica, which is an AI surveillance state. This will eventually lead
09:02to the War of Gog and Magog, the destruction of the Al-Azharic Mosque and the building of the Third
09:07Temple,
09:08the return of the Jewish diaspora to Jerusalem, and the arrival of the Jewish Messiah or the Antichrist.
09:16So they have the script scripted out. And unfortunately, a lot of world events are conforming to this
09:23script. Right. I mean, a lot of people say a lot of what you've just said is a load of
09:28fantastical
09:29baloney and driven by anti-Semitic tropes. What do you say to that? Look, I completely sympathize
09:35with this argument. Five years ago, I would have said the same thing about the argument and thinking.
09:42So what I do is predictive modeling, meaning that I'm going to throw some theories out there.
09:49And then based on these theories, I'm going to extrapolate into the future and see what the
09:53predictions are. If these predictions are correct, then my theories ought to have some legitimacy.
09:59Now, when I teach, I don't engage in historical analysis. I engage in speculative analysis.
10:07And so in 2024, two years ago, I did say that this war in Iran would happen, and I provided
10:14a lot of my
10:15analysis. And a part of my analysis that's very important is the eschatological analysis, meaning
10:21that Christian Zionists control the United States. There's a preacher called John Hagee, who runs an
10:29organization called Christians United for Israel, which has about 7 million members. Christian Zionists
10:34are heavily embedded in the national security apparatus and in the Pentagon. There's reporting
10:40that U.S. commanders have told their troops that this is a war to bring back Jesus and to be
10:47not
10:47afraid. So that's my argument. Like, I don't want to believe this, but because this war in Iran is
10:54happening, I'm forced to conclude that some of my speculative analysis has validity. Otherwise...
11:01Well, I think, to be honest, I think the word speculation doesn't quite do it justice. I mean,
11:08look, there's no doubt your predictions so far have been proven to be uncannily accurate in relation to
11:15Trump winning and then going to war with Iran. But I think the idea that this is all part of
11:21a plot to
11:21being back Jesus Christ. There might be some people out there that carry such a phrase. I think it's
11:28highly unlikely, unless any evidence emerges to the contrary, that they are current commanders in
11:33the United States military. But Professor Zhang, you have a big following. Lots of people are interested
11:38in your predictive analysis. And it's good to have you on our sensor. Thank you very much.
11:41So,
Comments