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USA, Israel, Iran, Middle East, World Politics
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00:00So today I want to talk about something that I think almost nobody understands about this war.
00:06Everyone is focused on the ceasefire. Everyone is asking, did America win? Did Iran win?
00:13Will the ceasefire hold? Will the war resume? And these are all important questions.
00:19But today I want to ask a completely different question, a question that I think is far more
00:24important than anything the media is discussing right now. And the question is this, while America
00:31and Iran were bleeding each other for 40 days, while bombs were falling and oil prices were surging
00:39and the global economy was shaking, who is actually winning? And the answer, the answer that almost
00:45nobody is talking about is China. Now I know what some of you are thinking. China is not even in
00:53this
00:53war. China did not fire a single missile. China did not send a single soldier. How can China be the
01:02winner? And that is exactly the right question. Because the most brilliant move in geopolitics
01:09is not to fight. The most brilliant move is to let your enemies destroy each other while you quietly
01:14collect the prize. But here is what makes this even more extraordinary. And this is the part that I
01:21think nobody has fully explained yet. China did not just sit and watch this war. China did something
01:27far more sophisticated. China played all three sides simultaneously. China armed Iran. China brokered the
01:35peace. And China will now collect the economic reward all at the same time. Let me say that again,
01:43because I need you to understand how extraordinary this is. China sent missile components to Iran during the
01:49war. Chinese radar systems and navigation technology helped Iran fight. Then China turned around and
01:55helped broker the ceasefire through Pakistan. And now China will use the credit from that ceasefire as
02:03leverage when Trump visits Beijing next month. One country, three moves, all sides played, and nobody in
02:10the Western media is connecting the dots. That is what I want to do today. I want to connect the
02:15dots
02:16step by step. And when you see the full picture, I promise you, you will never look at this war
02:23the
02:23same way again. Okay, let us begin. So I want to introduce a concept that I think is essential to
02:32understanding what China is doing. I call it the triple game. And once you understand this concept,
02:39everything about China's behavior in this war makes perfect sense. Most countries play one game at a time.
02:45America plays the military game. Bombs, missiles, aircraft carriers. That is America's game.
02:53Iran plays the survival game. Resist, endure, hold the straight. That is Iran's game. China plays three
03:02games simultaneously. The military game, the diplomatic game, and the economic game. And China plays a
03:08different strategy on each board. Let me walk you through each one. Game one, the military board. On the
03:15military board, China officially declared itself neutral. China said, we are not involved. We want peace.
03:22That is the public statement. But here is what actually happened. Multiple sanctioned Iranian ships
03:30carrying sodium perchlorate, a key ingredient for building solid fuel rockets, traveled from China to
03:38Iran after the war started. Not before the war. After Chinese-made radar systems and navigation technology
03:47sold to Iran before the war, helped Iran's electronic warfare capabilities during the fighting. Chinese
03:55technology helped Iran detect incoming strikes and coordinate its drone swarms. Now, did China send soldiers?
04:04No. Did China fire missiles? No. But China made sure that Iran had enough capability to keep fighting,
04:12enough capability to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed, enough capability to make this war painful for
04:19America. Why? Because every day America spent fighting Iran was a day America was not focused on China.
04:27Every billion dollars America spent bombing Iranian factories was a billion dollars not spent competing
04:36with China in semiconductors, in AI, in the industries that actually determine who leads the world in the
04:4421st century. This is game one. On the military board, China quietly helped Iran survive without ever putting
04:53a Chinese soldier at risk. Game two, the diplomatic board. Now, here is where it gets brilliant. Because at the
05:03exact same time China was helping Iran fight, China was positioning itself as the peacemaker. I want you to
05:10follow this timeline very carefully, because it reveals something extraordinary. On March 31st, while the war was
05:19still raging, China and Pakistan jointly announced a five-point peace initiative. Ceasefire, dialogue,
05:27civilian protection, reopening of Hormuz, and a UN role. After that announcement, Pakistan's foreign minister
05:35flew directly from Islamabad to Beijing. He met Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi. They coordinated the next
05:44steps together. Then China's foreign minister to Iran, to Israel, to Russia, to the Gulf states. He was
05:55talking to everyone. And then Pakistan, China's closest strategic ally, the country where China has invested
06:04over 60 billion dollars through the Belt and Road. Pakistan brokered the ceasefire. Now, I want you to think
06:10about what just happened. Pakistan brokered the deal. But who was behind Pakistan? Who coordinated with
06:17Pakistan before every major move? Who provided the diplomatic framework? Who gave Iran the confidence
06:23to accept the ceasefire? China, Pakistan's own ambassador to the United States, said it openly on CNN. He said,
06:33China played a quiet but consequential role. The New York Times reported that China made the key
06:39intervention that secured the ceasefire. Bloomberg reported that Trump himself credited China for
06:46helping make the deal happen. So let me be very clear about what this means. China armed Iran to keep
06:53the war going. Then China brokered the peace to end it. China decided when this war would be painful,
06:59and China decided when this war would pause. That is not a neutral country. That is the country
07:06controlling the tempo of the entire conflict. Game three, the economic board. Now, the economic board.
07:13This is the most important board, and this is where China truly wins. China buys over 90 percent of Iran's
07:22oil exports. Let me say that again. 90 percent. China is not just a customer of Iranian oil. China is
07:30the
07:30customer. Before this war, American sanctions meant Iran could barely export oil. The Iranian economy was
07:39struggling. Iran was desperate. But then this war started, and something extraordinary happened.
07:47America needed global oil prices to not go too high. Because high oil prices destroy the American economy.
07:56So America quietly eased enforcement of sanctions on Iranian oil. And who immediately stepped in to buy more?
08:05China. Iran is now making billions more per month from oil exports than before the war. And most of that
08:15money flows through Chinese banks, Chinese intermediaries, Chinese payment systems. The war that America
08:23started to weaken Iran has actually pushed Iran deeper into China's economic system than ever before.
08:30But it gets even better for China. Because of the war, because of the Strait of Hormuz closure,
08:36because of the chaos, Iran is selling oil to China at a significant discount below market price. Because
08:44China is one of the few buyers willing and able to take the risk. Cheap oil means cheaper energy for
08:53Chinese factories. Cheaper energy means lower manufacturing costs. Lower manufacturing costs means
09:00Chinese goods are more competitive globally. While American businesses are struggling with energy
09:07prices above $90 a barrel. Chinese manufacturers are getting Iranian oil at a discount. The war that was
09:16supposed to weaken Iran and strengthen America is actually making Chinese manufacturing more competitive.
09:22You cannot make this up. Now, I have shown you the three boards. Military, diplomatic, economic. China is
09:32winning on all three. But the genius of the triple game is that most people can only see one board
09:39at a
09:39time. The Pentagon sees the military board. The State Department sees the diplomatic board. Wall Street sees the
09:47economic board. But nobody in Washington is seeing all three boards together.
09:52China sees all three. And China is playing all three simultaneously. Now, I want to talk about
10:00something very specific that happened in the last 24 hours. Because this is the part that I think
10:06proves beyond any doubt that China is the biggest winner of this war. Trump is scheduled to visit Beijing
10:14in mid-May. This will be his first visit to China as president since 2017. And the most important
10:21issue on the agenda? Trade. Tariffs. The economic relationship between America and China. Now, think
10:30about the timing. China just helped broker a ceasefire that saved Trump from a political catastrophe.
10:38Trump was hours away from ordering the destruction of Iran's entire civilian infrastructure. Power plants,
10:46bridges, bridges, everything. The whole world was watching. Pope Leo called it truly unacceptable. Even
10:53Republican senators were getting nervous. And then China, working through Pakistan, helped deliver a
10:59ceasefire that Trump could call a victory. Trump went on Truth Social and called it a big day for world
11:06peace. The market surged. Oil crashed. Trump looked like a dealmaker instead of a warmonger.
11:14China did that. China gave Trump that win. Now, what do you think China is going to ask for in
11:21return when Trump
11:22visits Beijing next month? I will tell you exactly what China will ask for. Tariff reductions, easing of
11:29semiconductor export controls, relief on sanctions against Chinese technology companies. And Trump, who just publicly
11:37credited China for the ceasefire, who needs China's cooperation to keep Iran at the negotiating table,
11:46who needs stable oil prices for the American economy. Trump will have very little leverage to say no.
11:53This is the ceasefire dividend. China helped end the war, not because China cares about peace. China helped
12:01end the war because it creates leverage. Leverage that China will cash in next month in Beijing. And here
12:09is the deeper point. This is what I want you to really understand. America spent tens of billions of
12:17dollars on this war. American soldiers died. The American economy was shaken. Oil prices surged. Markets crashed.
12:25Allies were rattled. America's global reputation was damaged. And what did China spend? Phone calls. 26
12:33phone calls from the foreign minister, some diplomatic coordination with Pakistan. That is it. That is the
12:40total Chinese investment. America spent billions and got a two-week ceasefire that is already collapsing.
12:47China spent phone calls and got leverage over the most important bilateral relationship in the world.
12:54This is the difference between a hammer strategy and a Sun Tzu strategy. America hits,
13:01China positions. And positioning always beats hitting in the long run. Now, I want to show you that what
13:09China is doing is not new. This pattern has repeated throughout history. And every time it repeats,
13:17the outcome is the same. The country that fights, loses. The country that waits,
13:23wins. The first example is the one I always come back to, the Peloponnesian War. In 431 BC,
13:33Athens and Sparta went to war. Athens was the financial and cultural superpower. Sparta was the military
13:39superpower. They fought for 27 years. Both sides were devastated. Athens was destroyed. Sparta was exhausted.
13:48And who won? Macedon. A kingdom to the north that everyone considered irrelevant. Philip of Macedon watched
13:56Athens and Sparta bleed each other dry. He built his army. He built his economy. He waited. And when the
14:04moment came, his son Alexander conquered the entire Greek world. America is Athens. Iran is Sparta.
14:15China is Macedon. The parallel is exact. But let me give you a second example that I think is even
14:22more
14:22precise. And this one I have not heard anyone else discuss. The Napoleonic Wars. From 1803 to 1815,
14:31France under Napoleon fought Britain and the rest of Europe in a series of devastating wars. France had
14:39the most powerful army in the world. Britain had the most powerful navy. They fought each other for
14:45over a decade. And who won? Not France. Not Britain, really. The true winner was the United States of
14:54America. While Europe was tearing itself apart, America was quietly expanding westward. America bought
15:01Louisiana from France in 1803. Napoleon sold it because he needed money for his wars. America
15:08doubled its territory overnight. America built its economy. America stayed out of European conflicts. And
15:17within a few decades, America had become the dominant power in the Western Hemisphere. America won the 19th
15:26century not by fighting the biggest battles, but by letting the European powers exhaust each other and then
15:36filling the vacuum. This is exactly what China is doing today. While America spends trillions on Middle
15:43Eastern wars, China is buying resources in Africa. China is building ports in Southeast Asia. China is
15:52signing trade deals in Latin America. China is expanding while America is exhausting itself. Now,
16:00let me give you the third example. And this one happened within living memory. In 1979, the Soviet Union
16:08invaded Afghanistan. The Soviets thought it would be a quick operation. They thought the Afghan resistance
16:14would collapse in weeks. Instead, the war lasted 10 years. It cost the Soviet economy billions of rubles.
16:23It killed 15,000 Soviet soldiers. It demoralized the Soviet public. And in 1989, the Soviets withdrew in
16:33humiliation. Two years later, the Soviet Union collapsed. And who won? America. America did not fight in
16:42Afghanistan directly. America armed the Afghan resistance through Pakistan. By the way, the same Pakistan that
16:50just brokered the Iran ceasefire and America watched the Soviets bleed. Do you see the parallel? In the 1980s,
16:59America armed the Afghan resistance through Pakistan and watched the Soviet empire bleed to death. In 2026,
17:08China is supporting Iranian resistance, coordinating through Pakistan and watching the American empire bleed.
17:15The student has become the teacher. America invented this strategy. And now China is using it against
17:23America. Let me say that again, because this is the key insight. America armed the Afghans through Pakistan
17:31to bleed the Soviet empire. China is supporting Iran through Pakistan to bleed the American empire. It is the
17:41exact same playbook. And America cannot see it because America never imagined that someone would use its
17:50own strategy against it. Now, before I give you my predictions, I want to pause and say something.
17:56When I talk about strategy and game theory, it can sound like a game, like chess, like abstract intellectual
18:06exercise. But I want to be very clear. This is not a game. Real people are dying in Iran. Real
18:14people are
18:14dying in Lebanon. Real families in America are terrified that their children will be drafted. Real people
18:23across the Gulf states are watching drones fly over their cities and wondering if their water supply will
18:30survive the next attack. Strategy matters because it helps us understand why these things happen. But we must
18:37never forget that behind every strategic calculation, there are human beings, mothers, children, ordinary people
18:47who did not choose this war and cannot escape it. I study these patterns because I believe understanding them
18:54can help prevent the next catastrophe. That is why I do this. Okay, now, let me give you the predictions.
19:03I am going to make four predictions today. Not three, four, because I believe the fourth prediction is the
19:12one that will matter most in the long run. Write them down, save this video, come back and check.
19:18Prediction number one. China will extract major trade concessions from Trump at the May summit in Beijing.
19:26Trump publicly credited China for helping broker the ceasefire. Trump needs China's cooperation to keep Iran
19:35at the negotiating table. Trump needs stable oil prices. And China knows all of this. I predict that the
19:43May summit will produce a significant reduction in tariffs on Chinese goods, a partial easing of
19:51semiconductor export controls, and at least one major concession on technology restrictions. Not because
19:58Trump wants to give China these things, but because China has leverage now that it did not have six weeks
20:04ago. The ceasefire gave China that leverage. Watch the May summit. Watch what China gets.
20:14Prediction number two. Within six months, China and Iran will announce an expansion of their strategic
20:20partnership. China signed a 25-year, $400 billion partnership with Iran in 2021. That deal was mostly
20:32symbolic at the time. Many of the promised investments never materialized because of sanctions pressure.
20:39But this war has changed everything. Iran is now more dependent on China than ever. China is now buying
20:48over 90% of Iran's oil. Iran needs Chinese technology to rebuild its destroyed factories. Iran needs Chinese
20:57to rebuild its infrastructure. I predict that within six months, China and Iran will announce a major expansion
21:06of this partnership. New infrastructure projects, new energy deals, new technology transfers. And this will
21:15accelerate the Belt and Road Initiative through Iran faster than anyone expects. Prediction number three.
21:22The Petri Yuan accelerates. Before this war, the idea of oil being traded in Chinese Yuan instead of US dollars
21:31was discussed mostly as a theoretical possibility, something that might happen in 10 or 20 years.
21:39After this war, it will happen much faster. Here is why. The Gulf states just watched America fight a 40
21:48-day war
21:48and failed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. They watched their infrastructure get hit by Iranian drones.
21:54They watched America threaten to destroy an entire civilization. And they watched China quietly broker
22:03the peace. The Gulf states are now asking a very simple question. Who is the more reliable partner? The country
22:11that starts wars it cannot finish? Or the country that builds your infrastructure and then helps end the
22:18war. I predict that within 12 months, at least one major oil producing country, and I believe it will be
22:28Saudi
22:28Arabia, will announce a significant oil trade agreement denominated in Chinese Yuan. Not all of its oil,
22:37maybe 10 or 20 percent. But even that is a tectonic shift. Because once one country does it,
22:44others will follow. And when that happens, the petrodollar does not just weaken, it begins to die.
22:52Prediction number four. And this is the big one. This is the prediction I want you to remember.
22:57Above all the others, within five years, not 50 years, not 20 years, five years, China will become the
23:07dominant economic power in the Middle East, surpassing the United States. China is already the largest
23:14trading partner of Iran, of Saudi Arabia, of the UAE, of most Gulf states. China is already the largest
23:23buyer of Middle Eastern oil. China is already the largest investor in regional infrastructure through
23:29Belt and Road. What China does not yet have is diplomatic and security influence. But this war
23:37just gave China that too. China brokered the ceasefire. China has credibility now as a peacemaker.
23:44Pakistan, China's closest ally, is hosting the negotiations. The talks are happening in Islamabad,
23:53not Washington. Five years from now, when you look at the Middle East, you will see Chinese-built
23:58ports, Chinese finance railways, Chinese-purchased oil, and Chinese-mediated diplomacy. America will
24:06still have military bases. But military bases without economic influence are just expensive targets.
24:13This is what this war has done. It has not just weakened America, it has handed China the keys to
24:20the
24:20most strategically important region on earth. Let me bring this all together. 2,500 years ago,
24:27a Chinese strategist named Sun Tzu wrote the most important book on strategy ever written. It is
24:36called The Art of War. And the most famous lesson of that book is this. The greatest victory is to
24:43win
24:44without fighting. For 2,500 years, Chinese strategists have studied this principle. They have refined it.
24:51They have internalized it. It is not just a theory in China. It is a way of thinking. It is
24:59in the DNA of
25:02Chinese strategic culture. And in this war, we are seeing this principle executed at the highest level
25:10in modern history. China armed Iran quietly through deniable channels to make sure the war was painful
25:18enough for America. China then brokered the peace through Pakistan, through phone calls,
25:24through diplomatic channels to make sure China got the credit. And now China will collect the economic
25:31reward through cheap oil, through belt and road expansion, through trade concessions, through the
25:37gradual death of the petrodollar. Three moves. One strategy. No soldiers lost. No bombs dropped. No cities
25:46destroyed. America spent tens of billions of dollars on this war. Thousands of people are dead. The global
25:53economy was shaken. And what did America get? A two-week ceasefire that is already cracking. China spent 26
26:01phone calls. And China got leverage over the global superpower. Deeper control of Iranian oil, a path to
26:09expand belt and road, credibility as a peacemaker, and a weakened dollar. This is not luck. This is not
26:17coincidence. This is 2500 years of strategic culture meeting a moment where it can be applied perfectly.
26:25Now, I want to leave you with one final thought. And this is the thought that I think matters most.
26:30In the 1980s, America used Pakistan to arm the Afghan resistance and bleed the Soviet empire. It worked.
26:41The Soviet Union collapsed. And America became the sole superpower. In 2026, China is using Pakistan to
26:51support Iran and bleed the American empire. The question is, will it work again? I believe it will.
26:58Not because China is smarter than America. Not because China is more powerful than America.
27:07But because this strategy, letting your enemy overextend, letting them spend their money,
27:15letting them destroy their own credibility, and then stepping in when they are exhausted.
27:22This strategy works every single time in history. Every single time. Athens and Sparta exhausted each
27:33other. Macedon won. Britain and France exhausted each other. America won. The Soviet Union exhausted
27:41itself. America won. And now America is exhausting itself. And China will win. Not with bombs. Not with
27:51soldiers. Not with aircraft carriers. With patience. That is the lesson of Sun Tzu. That is the lesson of
28:00history. And that is what is happening right now in front of the entire world while almost nobody is paying
28:09attention. That is my analysis for today. This is not prophecy. This is game theory and structural history. I might
28:18be
28:18wrong. And if I am wrong. We will come back and analyze why. Because that is what this is about.
28:26Not being
28:27right all the time. But thinking carefully. Questioning our assumptions. And following the logic wherever it
28:34leads. Save this video. Come back in six months. Check the predictions. I will see you in the next one.
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