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USA, Israil, Iran, Middle East, world politics, Geo Politics
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00:00Okay, let me just make sure everything is recording.
00:02Yeah, okay, good.
00:03So today, I want to discuss something that I think is probably the most important question
00:09in geopolitics right now.
00:11And the question is this, is Israel America's ally?
00:15Now, most people will say, of course Israel is America's ally.
00:19America gives Israel billions of dollars every year.
00:22America protects Israel at the UN.
00:24America sends aircraft carriers to defend Israel.
00:27Okay, but I want to challenge that assumption today, because I think if you look at history
00:33carefully, if you apply game theory correctly, the answer is actually the complete opposite.
00:39Israel is not America's ally.
00:41Israel is America's replacement.
00:44Okay, so let me walk you through this carefully, and I want to do this step by step, because
00:48this idea is complex, and it requires us to understand history, game theory, and the structure
00:54of how the world actually works.
00:56Not how we are told it works, but how it actually works.
00:59Okay, so first, I want to go back to a model we've discussed before, because I think it's
01:04very important to have this framework before we continue.
01:06So remember, at the very core of the world system is what we call the empire.
01:11Okay?
01:11The empire is the muscle.
01:13It is the military power that shapes the rules of the game.
01:16And historically, for the past 80 years, that empire has been the United States of America.
01:21Now, around the empire, you have finance.
01:24Okay?
01:24Wall Street, the City of London, the Bank of International Settlements.
01:28These are the game masters.
01:29They set the rules.
01:30They decide who wins and who loses economically.
01:33And then you have the global economy, which runs on the US dollar.
01:36And then on top of all of this, you have what the Americans call the rules-based international
01:41order.
01:42The UN, the WTO.
01:43These organizations exist to make the world believe that this system is fair.
01:47But really, it is designed to hide the empire and the finance behind a mask of legitimacy.
01:53Okay?
01:53Now, here is the key idea.
01:55Every single player inside this system, the banks, the corporations, the intelligence agencies,
02:00the elite families, their number one interest is maintaining this system.
02:03Okay?
02:04Not improving it, not changing it, maintaining it.
02:07Because they all benefit from the status quo.
02:10But here is the problem.
02:11The muscle of this system, the American empire, is getting weaker.
02:15And when the muscle gets weak, the entire system is at risk.
02:18And so the people who run this system, the finance, the game masters, they have one urgent
02:23question right now.
02:24Who replaces America?
02:25Okay.
02:25Now, I know this sounds like a big claim.
02:27So let me prove it using history.
02:29Because this is not the first time this has happened.
02:31In fact, this is one of the most common patterns in all of human history.
02:35I call it the mercenary pattern.
02:36Okay.
02:37So what happens is this.
02:38A great empire, as it grows old, does not want to do dirty work anymore.
02:42It doesn't want to be the one doing the killing, the destabilizing, the violence.
02:46Because it wants to feel good about itself.
02:49It wants to project an image of being civilized, democratic, rule following.
02:53So what does it do?
02:54It hires mercenaries.
02:55It subcontracts the violence to someone else.
02:57Now, here is what's fascinating.
02:59Let me give you examples.
03:00The Romans, okay?
03:02The Romans, in the early days of Rome, they were actually mercenaries fighting for the
03:06Etruscans in Italy.
03:07They did the dirty work for the Etruscans.
03:09And then one day, the Romans said, wait a minute.
03:12We are the ones dying.
03:13We are the ones fighting.
03:15The Etruscans are weak and corrupt.
03:17Why are we serving them?
03:19And so they replaced the Etruscans.
03:21Rome became the empire.
03:22The Mongols, okay?
03:24The Mongols started out as mercenaries and border guards fighting for the Chinese.
03:28And then Genghis Khan looked at China and said, we are stronger than these people.
03:34Why are we serving them?
03:35And the Mongols conquered China.
03:38The Aztecs, the Aztecs started as mercenaries for the Culhuacan people of Mexico.
03:43Same story.
03:44They eventually replaced the people they were serving.
03:47Okay.
03:47Do you see the pattern?
03:48In every case, the mercenary eventually becomes more powerful, more determined, more willing
03:54to fight than the empire they serve, and eventually they replace the empire.
03:58Now look at Israel.
03:59Okay.
04:00Israel was created in 1948 by the British and the Americans.
04:04Why?
04:04To be their pit bull in the Middle East.
04:06To create instability.
04:07To give the British and Americans a reason to be involved in Middle Eastern oil.
04:11Israel was their aircraft carrier in the Middle East.
04:13Their mercenary.
04:14Their enforcer.
04:15And for decades, Israel did this work.
04:18Israel fought wars.
04:19Israel destabilized governments.
04:20Israel took all the international criticism and hatred so that America could stand back
04:25and look clean.
04:26But now Israel is looking at America and saying the same thing the Romans said about the Etruscans.
04:31The same thing the Mongols said about the Chinese.
04:34And that is, we are the ones doing all the work.
04:37We are the ones making all the sacrifices.
04:40America is weak.
04:41America is corrupt.
04:42America doesn't even know what it's doing.
04:44So why shouldn't we be the empire?
04:46Okay.
04:46Now here is something very important.
04:48Let me explain how empires are chosen.
04:50Think of it like this.
04:51Imagine you are a venture capitalist.
04:54You have trillions of dollars.
04:55Okay.
04:56And two companies come to you asking for investment.
04:58Company A says, I have 100 companies.
05:01They are all profitable.
05:02I have experience.
05:03I have skill.
05:04I have resources.
05:05Trust me.
05:06Company B says, we have failed before, but we will work 16 hours a day.
05:10We will never stop.
05:12This is our last chance.
05:13If we fail, we die.
05:14We will do whatever it takes.
05:16Now most people think the safe bet is company A.
05:18But if you are smart, you invest in company B because company A has 100 other companies.
05:23They don't care if this one fails.
05:25But company B, their entire survival depends on your investment.
05:28They will never steal from you.
05:30They will never be lazy because they cannot afford to fail.
05:33Okay.
05:34This is how the global elite chooses an empire.
05:37They need to invest in a country that will be their muscle.
05:40And so they look for three things.
05:42Number one, unity.
05:43Does this country's population support the mission?
05:45Are they willing to fight?
05:47Number two, capacity.
05:48Does this country have the resources, the technology, the intelligence to do what needs
05:53to be done?
05:53Number three, determination.
05:55Is this country willing to accept sacrifice?
05:57Is this country willing to do what it takes, no matter how brutal?
06:00Okay.
06:01Now let's apply this framework to America.
06:03Unity.
06:04Only 40% of Americans support this current war in Iran.
06:0840%.
06:08That means 60% of the American population does not support what the American military is doing.
06:14That is not unity.
06:15That is division.
06:16Capacity.
06:17America spends 41% of all global military spending.
06:21And yet an Iranian drone that costs a few thousand dollars can destroy a helicopter worth
06:26millions.
06:27A $13 billion aircraft carrier had to run away from the war theater within three weeks.
06:32The F-35, which cost $100 million each and took 26 years to develop, was shot down by
06:39Iran.
06:39This is not capacity.
06:41This is corruption pretending to be capacity.
06:44Determination.
06:45America is afraid to report casualties.
06:47The Pentagon is terrified of showing the American public how many soldiers are dying.
06:52In Iwo Jima, during World War II, America lost 6,000 Marines taking one small island.
06:57And they were proud of that sacrifice because they understood that's what winning requires.
07:02But today, America sends 5,000 Marines hoping they can win a war against a nation of 90 million
07:08people with very complicated geography.
07:10This is not determination.
07:12This is delusion.
07:13Okay?
07:13So, America fails all three tests.
07:16Now, let's look at Israel.
07:17Unity.
07:1882% of Israelis support what is happening in Gaza.
07:2166% of Israelis believe they are in an existential war.
07:25A war for the very survival of Israel.
07:28That is unity.
07:28That is the kind of national will that empires are built on.
07:32Determination.
07:33Israel has shown in Gaza that it is willing to do whatever it takes.
07:36The whole world was watching.
07:37The entire world was horrified.
07:39But Israeli public opinion didn't break.
07:41That is determination.
07:42Capacity.
07:43In 2024, Israel conducted the Lebanon pager attack.
07:46They spent 275 million and implanted bombs into pagers used by Hezbollah.
07:50They took decades to plan this operation.
07:52One operation.
07:54275 million and it broke the psychological backbone of one of Iran's most powerful proxies.
07:58Compare that to America spending 13 billion dollars on a ship that ran away.
08:02So, who would you invest in?
08:03Company A, America?
08:05Or Company B, Israel?
08:06Okay.
08:07Now, let's go deeper.
08:08Because here is where it gets really interesting.
08:10There is something called the Greater Israel Project.
08:13Okay?
08:13And this is what certain very powerful groups inside Israel believe.
08:17They believe, based on the Bible, that God promised the Jewish people all the land from
08:22the Nile River in Egypt to the Euphrates River in Iraq.
08:25Okay?
08:26This includes Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, and parts of Turkey.
08:31Now, here is a very interesting thing about this map.
08:34Iran, Persia, is not part of the Greater Israel Project.
08:37Iran is outside this territory.
08:39So, then you ask yourself, if Iran is not part of Greater Israel, then why is Israel so
08:44eager to go to war with Iran?
08:46Why is Israel pushing America so hard into this conflict?
08:50The answer is not what you think.
08:52The answer is, Iran is not Israel's biggest obstacle to achieving the Greater Israel Project.
08:57America is.
08:58Let me say that again.
08:59America is Israel's biggest obstacle to Greater Israel.
09:02Because right now, who controls the Middle East?
09:05Who has military bases in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain?
09:10Who controls the oil?
09:11Who controls the trade routes?
09:13America does.
09:14American bases are sitting on the very land that Greater Israel believes belongs to them.
09:19So, the strategy is brilliant in its simplicity.
09:21You use this war against Iran to destroy the American empire.
09:25How?
09:25Force America to overextend itself.
09:27Force America to spend money it doesn't have on weapons that don't work fighting a war that
09:32has no clear victory condition.
09:33Make America so exhausted, economically, politically, militarily, that it is forced to withdraw
09:39from the Middle East.
09:40And when America leaves, who fills the vacuum?
09:43Israel.
09:44This is not a conspiracy theory.
09:45This is game theory.
09:46This is how empires have always transitioned throughout history.
09:49The old empire is exhausted.
09:51The new empire is waiting.
09:52The transition happens.
09:54Okay, now some of you are thinking, but Iran and Israel are enemies.
09:57How can Israel replace America if Iran is still standing?
10:01This is where the third law of geopolitics becomes very important.
10:04The strong respect each other and prey on the weak.
10:07Okay, think about this carefully.
10:08Right now, it looks like America, Israel, and the GCC are all on one side against Iran.
10:13But as this war progresses and Iran proves it is strong, and as America proves it is weak,
10:18the alliances will shift because the strong don't waste their energy fighting each other.
10:22The strong look at each other and say, you know what?
10:25Let's leave each other alone and divide the weak between us.
10:28This is actually what I believe will happen between Iran and Israel.
10:32Not today, not this year, but in the long run.
10:34Once America retreats, once the dust settles,
10:38Iran and Israel will be the two remaining powers in the Middle East.
10:41And they will have to come to some kind of arrangement.
10:43Because that is what strong powers do.
10:45Now here is something very important about Iran that nobody is discussing.
10:49This war, which was supposed to destroy Iran,
10:51has actually made Iran dramatically wealthier.
10:54The Americans unsanctioned Iranian oil to prevent oil prices from rising too high.
10:59Okay, and what happened?
11:00Iran made $14 billion almost immediately.
11:03Remember that Iran's entire annual military budget is only $10 billion.
11:08So in one move, America gave Iran more money than Iran spends on its military in an entire year.
11:14And Iran is now permanently embedded in two major global trade networks.
11:18The first is the North-South Transport Corridor,
11:21linking Russia down through Iran into India and Asia.
11:24This allows Russia to bypass Western sanctions and access Asian markets.
11:28And it allows Iran to access European markets through Russia.
11:32The second is China's Belt and Road Initiative.
11:34For China to access Europe, it must go through Iran.
11:37For Europe to access China, it must go through Iran.
11:40Iran is at the absolute epicenter of Eurasian trade.
11:43So what does this mean?
11:45It means that even after this war ends, even if America wins militarily,
11:49Iran wins economically.
11:51Iran's economy will be stronger after this war than it was before.
11:55And that means Iran has less reason to compromise.
11:58Iran has less reason to accept American terms.
12:01The more this war continues, the more Iran benefits.
12:05Okay, so now let me put this all together and describe what the new world looks like
12:09after this transition, I call it Pax Judea.
12:12Just as we had Pax Romana, the Roman peace, Pax Britannica, the British peace,
12:17Pax Americana, the American peace, we are now moving toward Pax Judea, the Israeli peace.
12:23So what does this look like?
12:24First, control of Middle Eastern resources.
12:27The Middle East has 20% of all the world's oil, all the major gas fields, all the major trade
12:32routes.
12:32Israel, because of its geography, is at the center of all of this.
12:36It has access to the Mediterranean, access to the Red Sea, access to Africa, access to Europe, access to Asia.
12:42No other country in the region has this geographic advantage.
12:46Second, the India-Middle East Europe trade corridor.
12:49Okay, for India to trade with Europe, the most efficient route goes directly through Israel and the Middle East.
12:55This corridor, once established, will become one of the most important trade routes in the world.
13:00And Israel controls the center of it.
13:02Third, data and AI.
13:03Israel has more data centers in the Middle East than any other country.
13:07It has the best universities, the best technology talent, the best intelligence infrastructure.
13:12And in the 21st century, data is power.
13:15Surveillance is control.
13:16Whoever controls the AI backbone of the Middle East controls the population of the Middle East.
13:21And Israel is positioned to do exactly that.
13:24Fourth, intelligence superiority.
13:26We talked about ISIS.
13:27ISIS attacks everywhere in the Middle East.
13:29Every single Muslim country has experienced ISIS attacks.
13:33Except one, Israel.
13:34Okay?
13:35A lot of very smart analysts believe this is not a coincidence.
13:39They believe ISIS is at least partly an intelligence operation.
13:42And whether that's true or not, the point is, Israel has demonstrated a level of strategic intelligence capability
13:48that no other country in the region comes close to matching.
13:51So this is Pax Judea.
13:53Control of trade.
13:54Control of resources.
13:55Control of data.
13:56Control of intelligence.
13:57This is what the post-American Middle East looks like.
14:00Okay?
14:01So finally, I want to discuss what this means for America.
14:04Because here's the paradox.
14:06America is spending trillions of dollars sending its young men and women to die, destroying its economy.
14:12And the main beneficiary of all of this is not America.
14:16The main beneficiary is Israel.
14:18Julian Assange, the famous journalist, once said something very important about American wars.
14:23He said the point of American wars is not to win.
14:25The point of American wars is to have never-ending wars so that the military-industrial complex
14:30can transfer American taxpayer money to a transnational elite.
14:34And I think this is true.
14:35But I want to add something to that.
14:37The military-industrial complex is not just stealing from America.
14:40They are also, whether they know it or not, accelerating the decline of the American empire
14:45and accelerating the rise of the Israeli empire.
14:48Because every dollar America spends on this war is a dollar America cannot spend rebuilding
14:54its roads, its schools, its hospitals.
14:57Every soldier who dies in Iran is a soldier who cannot come home and build the American economy.
15:03Every bomb dropped in Tehran is a bomb that could have been used to address the crumbling
15:07infrastructure of Detroit or Baltimore.
15:09America is consuming itself to build someone else's empire.
15:14And here is the most painful part.
15:15The American people don't know this is happening.
15:17They are being told this is a war for American security.
15:20They are being told this is a war to prevent Iran from getting nuclear weapons.
15:24They are being told this is a war for democracy and freedom.
15:27But the reality is much simpler and much darker.
15:30This war is the final chapter of the American empire.
15:34And the first chapter of Pax Judea.
15:36Okay, so let me summarize what we discussed today.
15:39Number one, the global elite needs an empire to maintain their system.
15:43America is no longer able to fulfill that role.
15:46They are looking for a replacement.
15:48Number two, Israel has been auditioning to be that replacement.
15:52It is demonstrating unity, determination, and capacity.
15:55It is proving to the global elite that it can provide the muscle for the next era of the world
16:00system.
16:01Number three, the mercenary pattern tells us this transition is not only possible, but historically inevitable.
16:08The mercenary always replaces the empire eventually.
16:11And Israel has been America's mercenary in the Middle East for 70 years.
16:15Number four, this war against Iran is not simply a war between America and Iran.
16:20It is a war that is designed, whether consciously or not,
16:23to exhaust the American empire and create the conditions for Israeli dominance in the Middle East.
16:28And number five, after this war ends, two regional powers will remain, Israel and Iran.
16:34And according to the laws of geopolitics, the strong respect each other and prey on the weak.
16:39These two powers will ultimately find a way to coexist while the GCC countries,
16:43Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, become irrelevant and dependent.
16:48Now, I want to be very clear about something.
16:50I am not saying this is what should happen.
16:52I'm not saying this is good or bad.
16:54What I am doing is using history, game theory and careful analysis to describe what might happen.
16:59This is predictive history.
17:01The goal is not prophecy.
17:02The goal is to sharpen our thinking, to make us more curious, to make us better at understanding the world.
17:08Okay, if this analysis is right, then we have a framework.
17:11And if it turns out to be wrong, then that is also useful.
17:14Because we go back, we analyze what we missed, and we build a better model.
17:18That is how you think, like a strategist.
17:20Okay, next week we will discuss the strategy for how to destroy the American empire from within.
17:25We'll talk about the economic weapons, the stock market, the oil price, the dollar,
17:29and how they can be used to force an American withdrawal from the Middle East.
17:33That should be a very interesting class.
17:35Alright, good.
17:36I will see you next week.
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