00:00Let's talk to Hanan Hussain from the think tank Initiate Futures in Islamabad.
00:05Hanan, welcome, good to see you.
00:07For those who are not immersed in the region or the recent politics and history,
00:12just explain to us the significance of this deal, this pact.
00:18Sure, absolutely.
00:19So this particular pact, which we see being formalized,
00:22is a result of decades of defense cooperation between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia,
00:27two very close allies who recently signed the Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement.
00:31That's a term which is used to encapsulate a shared commitment
00:35and an attack on the kingdom or on Pakistan,
00:37but vice versa will be an attack on both.
00:40The particular agreement is of significance because it comes at a time
00:43when regional volatility has been a fixture in Turkey, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia's positions
00:48vis-Ă -vis the Iran war and the larger dynamics.
00:50And the expectation now is to use consultative diplomacy
00:53to look for ways to ramp up, let's say, defense manufacturing
00:57as well as shared troop capacity building going forward.
01:00And given your experience, I mean, just give us your snapshot, your take,
01:04your sit-rep on where we are in terms of Middle East security.
01:10So I think it's volatile right now.
01:12The ability to coordinate expectations between competing sides
01:17seems to be tempered because on the one end we see Washington,
01:20which has made certain commitments, many of which were ironed out within the interim deal,
01:24and those have been met with, you know, external pressure in terms of Iran's pension
01:29to escalate in the name of self-defense, but attacking different countries.
01:32I think that's a pressure point because even when Pakistan and Qatari mediators
01:36are looking to bridge division and bring them forward to the table,
01:38the fact that the U.S. wants concessions on key grounds
01:41and Iran is using threat of Hormuz as a bargaining tactic
01:44as opposed to a commitment which opens up space for border negotiations.
01:48I think it's a tough road ahead, and in order for any semblance of stability to prevail,
01:53we would need a regional diplomacy which is ensigned around the Islamabad MOU to come forward.
01:58As of now, greater friction between Washington and Iran takes center stage.
02:02Just looking at this peace pact, this agreement, I mean, it's worth, of course,
02:06reminding ourselves that Pakistan is a nuclear power.
02:11Just how significant is that for this new alliance of three?
02:17I think from a symbolic point of view, it signals Pakistan's preparedness on multiple levels
02:23of, you know, protecting the kingdom's security and elsewise as well.
02:28But I won't read too much into the nuclear angle because Pakistan's history is a testament
02:32to the fact that Pakistan has used its nuclear doctrine position in a defensive posture.
02:37It does not carry any offensive or any sort of external commitments on the nuclear front.
02:42I think the broader dynamics of this particular deal focus around kind of managing competing
02:47comparative strengths between Turkey, which is the leading defense manufacturing,
02:51has a leading defense manufacturing industry, which has indigenized Pakistan,
02:54which has a history of committing troop capacities elsewhere to the kingdom as well,
02:58and Saudi Arabia, which has a financial cloud to make things work.
03:00So I think collectively, this is a pact which does not signal towards a third party who alienate it,
03:05but creates enough space for quantitative diplomacy, which has been, you know,
03:10a key fixture in the lead-up to the Islamabad talks as well,
03:12the quarter between Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Pakistan, and Egypt.
03:15So that consensus building in diplomacy is something which is likely to take
03:18a bit more autonomous view going forward, but again,
03:21focus on the larger interests of regional stability at large.
03:23How should the close neighbors and the wider international community of Saudi Arabia,
03:30Turkey, and Pakistan interpret this deal?
03:34I think they should view it on two levels.
03:36So first of all, the goal is to allow for areas of convergence which have struck a chord
03:42with powers beyond the street.
03:44So, for example, when you look at the broader sentiment within the GCC statements coming out
03:48of that as well, and then key EU partners as well as from Washington,
03:52which have looked for space to set up guardrails in terms of future de-escalation going forward.
03:57So I think this particular quartet, given their multi-vector alliances
04:00and the multi-vector foreign policy engagements with both Washington
04:04and many other partners beyond the GCC,
04:06suggests that there's enough room for multilateral maneuvering
04:10in terms of competing proposals from U.S. and Iran.
04:12So, yes, the space is open.
04:13I think when you look at the agreement in granular detail,
04:16you'll also understand that it does not exclude further powers
04:20from joining this cycle of consultative diplomacy.
04:22The key test would be at the degree to which those priorities are synthesized
04:26in a way which advances U.S. and Iran consensus building.
04:29Five months on, the war has shown little appetite for that to happen.
04:33Hanan, good to see you, and thanks for your time.
04:35Hanan Hussain from the think tank, Initiate Futures in Islamabad.
Comments