00:00Take us through the latest. What stands out to you?
00:05Well, I mean, look, there's a lot to unpack from this weekend.
00:08It was an eventful weekend, and expectations were actually very, very high.
00:13And it was a tall order to expect that the U.S. and Iran could come together
00:18and achieve some sort of a breakthrough,
00:20given how far away their initial starting positions were before we even got to Islamabad.
00:26And I think what has emerged from this is a marathon round of discussions.
00:31As we know, clearly, the knee-jerk reaction was to be disappointed
00:36and that the two sides weren't able to come up together with a sustainable deal.
00:41But actually, if you listen to some of the comments,
00:44especially even President Trump's two social posts yesterday,
00:47he did say that there was a lot of overlap in terms of areas where they did agree.
00:52And he said that, you know, the fact that the discussions went on for so long
00:57is a constructive signal.
00:58But there are two elements where clearly there has not been enough to bridge the divide.
01:04Number one is on the subject of nuclear weapons.
01:07And this is something that J.D. Vance reiterated before he flew back home.
01:10He said that they have not received sufficient assurances from the Iranians
01:15that they will not go on to develop a nuclear weapon
01:17and also not develop the tools to do so.
01:20So it's not just about the commitment not to develop a nuclear weapon,
01:23but also to relinquish the tools, i.e. maybe give up those centrifuges
01:28or give back the highly enriched uranium that they're sitting on.
01:31And then the second point, which is the major one that also, you know,
01:34with this big announcement from President Trump yesterday,
01:37is what to do about the straits.
01:39Because six weeks ago, the strait wasn't even a point of leverage for Iran.
01:43It has become a new point of leverage throughout the course of this war,
01:47clearly an unacceptable situation.
01:48The U.S. quite clearly are now trying to do something about it
01:52with President Trump announcing this blockade
01:54that is set to go into effect in about 12 hours' time.
01:57So that is a new element.
01:59And from the perspective of the region, I will just say,
02:03you know, at least this time,
02:04he's not making apocalyptic threats about ending civilization
02:11or, you know, sending mass amounts of destruction towards power plants and civilian infrastructure.
02:19This time around, it does appear as though there is a strategy from the U.S. administration perspective
02:25to help wrest back one of Iran's key points of leverage
02:28before they enter what possibly could be another round of negotiations.
02:34Okay. So maybe still a bit more measured in terms of the response.
02:39But, you know, how will the Iranians, you know,
02:42interpret this sort of naval blockage of the Strait of Hormuz?
02:46You know, Jennifer Welch from our BE team says they might see this as an act of war,
02:51and they may not fold.
02:52What do you think Iran's response will be?
02:54Yeah. So, so far, I will say that the ceasefire still does appear to be holding.
03:00In the last 12 hours overnight, there hasn't been any reported activity,
03:05at least in the region.
03:07So, at least for the time being, we can say that that is being honored.
03:11Now, they're clearly not pleased with it.
03:14I saw a comment that the Speaker of the Parliament,
03:17Mohamed Ghalibaf, and also one of the lead negotiators this weekend,
03:20put up overnight warning the U.S. that if they thought $4 a gallon was bad,
03:26just wait until it gets to $5, $6,
03:28and that ultimately this blockade will end up affecting the U.S. consumer.
03:32But if you look at, you know, anyway,
03:35the amount of ships that were passing through the Straits,
03:38we're talking about less than half a dozen every day,
03:40and most of them were Iranian-linked.
03:42So, if the U.S. are successful at following through from this,
03:46they'll achieve three things.
03:47Number one, cutting off a key lifeline for Iran itself
03:51in terms of the revenue that they would have been enjoying
03:55from getting their all through the Straits.
03:58Number two, perhaps putting pressure on Asia,
04:01and specifically China at this point,
04:04in terms of going through them to put on, you know,
04:08extra pressure on Iran to come to the negotiating table.
04:11And the third point, clearly, would be to help wrest back
04:14this point of leverage that Iran seems to be holding,
04:16not just over the U.S., but over the global economy.
04:20And so that's the calculus from the U.S.'s perspective.
04:23The risk, of course, though, is that, you know,
04:26this sort of deteriorates into a naval conflict,
04:29and Iran starts actually firing at U.S. Navy.
04:32We have to see how it plays out.
04:33But for the time being, the ceasefire is still holding up.
04:36And we have to see how it happens.
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