00:00What's your response to the ceasefire and how much you can really buy into it?
00:03Well, so I think we just have to step back and say two things here.
00:08Number one, there's a huge sigh of relief that the incendiary language and the inflamed rhetoric of the last three
00:16days on all sides is being set aside for hopefully at least two weeks, perhaps longer.
00:22But then when you think about where the markets were and are, you know, taken individually, the degree of hedging
00:30in stocks, credit, bonds, all bearish and oil, all bullish, were at extremes going back to the pandemic.
00:39Taken collectively, the amount of hedging, and I've been doing this for a while, I was a junior trader on
00:46the floor during the first Gulf War.
00:48There is no precedent for the collective amount of hedging.
00:52So from that perspective, you know, this is a sigh of relief that we do think has some staying power.
00:59But again, as we've been saying, the devil will be in the details over the next several weeks.
01:04So if it has staying power, that means it's something that is tradable and that you do see upside here
01:09in a number of different markets.
01:10How much is it concentrated in the United States versus, say, Europe versus, say, Southeast Asia?
01:15Well, again, if you go back to the oil price, which is essentially the linchpin for everything here, the sigh
01:25of relief being breathed in Europe this morning is proportionally larger because the effect on elevated oil prices on Europe
01:35is also proportionally larger.
01:37But when you think about it, our view has been that the bull market that started in October of 2022
01:44has further to go.
01:45We thought that a week and a half ago as you were plumbing back towards 6,300.
01:51And frankly, what we find in bull market history is the stocks, themes and geographies that led in U.S.
02:00tech has been all of those end up leading.
02:03So from our point of view, the biggest thing is the fallen yields here telling you that that is an
02:10endorsement of higher multiple equities.
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