00:00I think there is this divide in the market where there is an expectation that there will be some
00:06sort of peace agreement. And even if that were to come, how long would it take to open up Hormuz
00:13again? How long would it take to get flows back to normal levels? That's the big question. And
00:18one thing that I've noticed over the last few weeks and months is that whenever talks continue,
00:24even though there is no deal, if there are talks continuing, if Rubio or Trump says something's
00:29close to a deal or those talks progress, then you see oil kind of slip in that expectation
00:36that there will be some sort of agreement. When there are attacks and when there's a threat to
00:42the wider region, that's when you see prices rise again. It seems that the market isn't so
00:48closely monitoring the actual flow of vessels through Hormuz. They're really just watching
00:53the rhetoric. And the big fear in the market, the big thing that would push prices much higher
00:58is if this ceasefire that exists right now were to evaporate and you go back to March where there
01:05were U.S. and Israel strikes on Iran and then Iran doing retaliatory strikes across the region.
01:11That is the big fear. Now, of course, we're not in that situation right now, but any breakdown in
01:15talks could go that way. So that's why every day I feel like when traders wake up, they look at
01:20what
01:20Trump has said. As long as he isn't saying that he's going to bomb everybody and that the talks
01:24continue, that's a good news for the market. What does that, Stephen, what is all of that
01:29doing in terms of this gap that we're seeing between physical and paper oil?
01:36You know, what's been really interesting is in the early, I guess more in April, you were in March
01:41as well, you were seeing a pretty big gap between dated Brent, which is the physical or, you know,
01:46the now barrels, the barrels that they need to get right now versus the futures market. You are
01:51seeing a closing of the gap between the physical market and the paper market. So there isn't this
01:57disconnect that we had months back. Instead, I think where you're really seeing the true pressure
02:03points are on the fuels. So when you look a little bit more down the barrel, so I'm talking about
02:10jet fuel, you know, those prices remain quite elevated. Diesel, as well as other products. LPG as
02:17well to Asia is becoming quite challenging to get. You're seeing long lines at the Panama Canal to get
02:23US shipments to Asia. So I think that's where the pressure point is at the moment. And because of
02:30that, you're seeing just widespread demand destruction to help balance that. And that demand destruction is
02:34happening here in Asia, where I sit. Maybe not so much Japan, but more so in South and Southeast Asia.
02:40I'm talking Pakistan, Bangladesh, India to an extent, as well as some of the countries like Vietnam and
02:47the Philippines.
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