00:00Yeah, I think we're going to see oil continue to bounce around here because now we've got an even longer
00:05deadline, as it were, for potential additional attacks.
00:11And with that longer period of time, there's so many other things that can happen during that period in terms
00:16of initiatives, in terms of jawboning, talking down the market.
00:20So I think that's a lot of what's going on.
00:23I think there were a lot of that found that initial deadline at the start of this week for attacking
00:30Iran's energy infrastructure and power plants a very hard deadline to meet, a very point of no return almost in
00:37the conflict because that would really escalate things and bring in some Iranian retaliation against Gulf allies.
00:44So pushing that back gives more time for talks, talks that the Iranians initially denied were taking place, but they've
00:50come back with their own counterproposals.
00:52Part of that includes control of the Strait of Hormuz, which is the real issue that we're dealing with now,
00:58which is that oil not getting through.
01:00We have seen some Iranian-linked vessels getting through with some oil, an increasing number, in fact, as well as
01:06the Iranians letting through other vessels, charging them a fee, a toll to get through the Strait of Hormuz to
01:13get some more oil back in the market.
01:15So we're seeing that trickle come through, but that's Iranian-controlled.
01:19So the bulk of oil is still stuck in the Strait of Hormuz.
01:23We do have some workaround pipelines, but that's going through Saudi Arabia's Red Sea coast and to the UAE's port
01:30of Fujairah.
01:30But those are only a part of what had been going through the Strait of Hormuz before.
01:35So we're really lacking those volumes there.
01:38And it's not only crude oil, it's also a lot of the products.
01:41The Gulf has taken a lot of time over the last couple of years investing billions of dollars to build
01:46up these export-oriented refineries to produce a lot of jet fuel,
01:51Euro-spec diesel to go into Europe and other countries.
01:55That's not coming out.
01:56So that's a big drag on the market.
01:58Diesel is that workhorse fuel for industry.
02:02And, of course, we're talking a lot about airline prices going up because the jet fuel is simply not there
02:08and it costs a lot more.
02:09So we're having all these knock-on effects.
02:11The longer it goes, the more this will cost us.
02:13We've seen one analyst from Macquarie today saying that the longer this goes, we could see oil even at $200
02:19a barrel.
02:20So the risks are on the upside as this goes on.
02:23There's potential for more damage to facilities from attacks and bombs.
02:28The longer those facilities stay off, the harder it is to bring them back up.
02:31So the longer this goes on, Vani, the harder the situation is to get back and bring those prices back
02:37down.
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