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00:00Ambassador Bolton, last time you were on the show, you were talking about how you had advocated for this at
00:06your time at NSC.
00:08You wish they would have done it then. You were glad they did it now.
00:11But in that intervening time, you've voiced some concerns, both in writing and on some of the other networks, about
00:15how this is proceeding.
00:17I'm wondering, I mean, we wanted to get your take on these seemingly failed talks in Pakistan.
00:21But now I want to ask you what your thoughts on on this blockade that's being announced by President Trump
00:26just minutes ago.
00:28Right. Well, I come from the perspective that the only way to get true peace and security in the Middle
00:33East is to have regime change in Iran.
00:36You can negotiate all you want with these people. It's not going to change anything.
00:40And I think the failure of the Islamabad negotiations just makes the point as clearly as as one can.
00:47I think the ceasefire was a mistake. But but just dealing with where we are right now, part of the
00:52problem here was caused by Donald Trump a few weeks ago,
00:56lifting American sanctions on the shipment of Iranian oil.
01:00And I think he was motivated by fear of rising international oil prices.
01:05And he thought a few tankers might get the price down. I don't think that's correct.
01:10I think it was insignificant. But but what he was doing was allowing Iran to ship oil, not the Gulf
01:16Arabs, but Iran,
01:18presumably to get paid to gain resources to use in their military to kill Americans, financing the war against us.
01:26That never made any sense. And he should he should reimpose the sanctions.
01:31I think that maybe I haven't seen these tweets, but I think that maybe what he's doing and a blockade
01:36makes sense.
01:36You don't have to attack Karg Island. I don't I don't think that was ever realistic.
01:40The point is, no Iran, if no Gulf Arab oil gets out, no Iranian oil gets out.
01:46Let's see how they feel about that in Tehran. We're going to get back to the blockade in a second.
01:50But you mentioned regime change. So I've got to ask you, this administration, the U.S. administration,
01:54seems to think that that what has happened in Iran over the last six weeks constitutes as regime regime change.
02:01Do you agree? That's ridiculous.
02:03Look, what we're dealing with is a group of religious fanatics pursuing a radical ideology,
02:10and it permeates the core of Ayatollahs at the top and certainly permeates the Revolutionary Guard.
02:18Now, the leadership of both the civilian side of the government and the Revolutionary Guard has been severely harmed by
02:25the last six weeks.
02:26Not enough, obviously, but it's beginning to fracture the regime at the top.
02:30There are signs of that inside Iran. And I think the devastation that's been unleashed against the instruments of Iranian
02:37state power,
02:38the Revolutionary Guard, the Quds Force, the besieged militia are having a real effect inside Iran.
02:44I think the ceasefire was a mistake. The last thing you want to do is let up before you really
02:49do crack the regime and it collapses internally.
02:52That gives internal opponents and people who defect from the regime a chance to take over, not guaranteed, but a
02:59chance.
03:00Well, I think the challenge with that, Ambassador, some would point out, is there's not a clear group of those
03:04people.
03:05There's not clear opposition. There's not clear defectors.
03:07Who are the names who would be an acceptable leader of this country to you?
03:12And are those moderates left? Because we've seen reports that many of them were potentially killed during some of these
03:17strikes.
03:18There were no moderates in the regime. If you judge by the most important criteria, who favors getting Iranian nuclear
03:26weapons, they all favor it.
03:29The opposition is really quite widespread across the country. It is disorganized. That's a fact.
03:35But it's not like Iran had a two party system. We're saying, well, we want this party out and the
03:40other party in.
03:40I do think there will be a lot of turmoil. I think that's what happens after a 47-year-long
03:46dictatorship begins to collapse.
03:49And I don't think you can dictate who the leaders are going to be from the outside.
03:53But what we can say is if this regime begins to come apart, there are plenty of people inside who,
03:58seeing the ship going down, will decide they don't want to go down with it.
04:02But, Mr. Messer, what is the end goal here? Because, you know, we have your op-ed from earlier this
04:08week where you say the U.S. cannot leave without finishing the job.
04:11And we've been talking this morning that was a fear of a lot of allies that the Trump administration in
04:15America would leave with the strait not fully reopened.
04:18It looks like they are taking action on that front. But even if they do, this regime has proven, I
04:23think, more durable than a lot of people in this current administration thought.
04:26I'm wondering if you thought they would outlast this long. And if they do start to crumble, to your point,
04:32there are no moderates in the country. What replaces them?
04:36The people are the moderates. The regime itself is not is not is not a happy house for moderates.
04:43The Revolutionary Guard and the Ayatollahs have to be replaced.
04:46I don't think anybody can say with confidence that the regime has survived.
04:51You know, they've been building it for 47 years. We've attacked it for six weeks.
04:56A little patience is required here. The Gulf Arabs will tell you, I think, that they don't look forward to
05:03living as vassals to the Ayatollahs in Tehran.
05:06They want the strait opened. And I think now is the time to do it militarily, because if we cannot
05:13show today that we can open the strait,
05:16what happens three years from now when the Ayatollahs decide to close it again?
05:21If you want to live under that kind of regime, that that is a guarantee of higher oil prices for
05:27a long time.
05:28And the Gulf Arabs being subordinate. I also want to ask you, you know, I watched the Trump administration pull
05:35out of the JCPOA the first time.
05:38The situation going into negotiations in Pakistan overnight, the elements on the ground were not that different than the agreement
05:46that the U.S. pulled out of.
05:48Do you think that was a smart decision to even go to those negotiations?
05:52Do you think it gave Iran a card it wouldn't have had if J.D. Vance hadn't touched down in
05:57Islamabad?
05:59Well, I don't think the negotiations gave them a card. I think the ceasefire gave them a card.
06:03They'd been subjected to six weeks of constant bombardment. Now they've had at least some time to be able to
06:09regroup,
06:10to see if they can reconnect, reestablish communications. I think you need to put the pressure back on them.
06:17The immediate point is to open the strait. If we open the strait to Gulf Arab oil, but not to
06:23Iranian oil,
06:24that would be the ideal interim fix, I think. On opening the strait and back to this idea of the
06:30blockade, which you have pushed for, in your New York Times op-ed, you write,
06:34if American combat forces entering the region can help open the strait by controlling territory
06:39on Iran's side, acknowledging the inevitable risks, that would be more sensible strategically.
06:45Does this mean U.S. forces actually on the ground in Iran?
06:51Yes. I said more strategic, more strategic than taking Karg Island. Look, while we've watched for
06:57the past 10 or 15 years, Iran has been fortifying a number of islands in the Gulf. That's how they've
07:03set up this tolling system. Now, at least three of those islands are actually claimed by the United
07:08Arab Emirates, Abu Musa, Greater Tunba, and Lesser Tunba. They're filled with tunnels that probably have
07:15missiles and other equipment. I think those are the kinds of targets that we need to neutralize so
07:22that we can make the strait safe for maritime transit. The military will have much more detailed
07:29knowledge of this, and I'm sure that's what they're thinking about now. It's not just clearing
07:33the mines from the strait, although that's obviously important, but protecting convoys of tankers from
07:39anti-ship missiles, swarms of Iranian fast boats, of which we've sunk a great number, and Iranian
07:46drones dropping weapons from the sky. You said we need to be patient with regime change, with change
07:54in Iran, but I'm wondering what that means. How long do you think this could take? How long do you
07:59think America should stay in this, considering this is a president who campaigned on no more forever wars?
08:05And do you think the president and the American public have the attention span for how long this
08:10could potentially take in order to see real durable change? Well, it's certainly the case the president
08:17promised no more wars. That's his problem. I mean, he apparently doesn't think too much of the pledge
08:22because that's what he's doing now. And it is important to get the American public to understand
08:28why we're doing this, which is another problem of President Trump. He did not make what I think is a
08:34very compelling case for regime change before the war. He didn't try to persuade the American
08:39people. He didn't work with Congress. He didn't brief our allies. He didn't work with the Iranian
08:43opposition. It's still not too late, but a lot of the problems could have been alleviated. And you
08:49ask how long, I don't think you can put a timeframe on it. I just want to introduce one radical
08:54concept,
08:55victory, that we actually defeat the regime, remove the threat of Iran's nuclear weapons program,
09:02remove the threat of international terrorism, remove the threat that's really almost as grave
09:07as those two. And that's Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz.
09:11Ambassador, I understand that. But also, you live in the real world. You've lived in Washington.
09:15We've got midterms coming up. We've been talking all morning about what this is doing for prices for
09:20the American public and how voters vote on kitchen table issues. And that's affordability.
09:24The longer this persists, the more we're going to see uncertainty in markets, even if the strait is
09:29open. It's not going to be open at the tempo that it was before, certainly not for some time.
09:33Aren't those two going to hit the road potentially before this job is accomplished? And do you think
09:38this administration, given what's coming in November, will wait it out? Or do you think they
09:43will cut and run before the job is done?
09:46Well, consider the cost of not succeeding. That has cost, too.
09:49I think the president could make a very effective case that if you could get Gulf oil,
09:55Gulf Arab oil coming out of the region again, given that before this started, the world was
10:01awash with petroleum. People were talking about the surplus and what to do about it.
10:05I think prices would come down very quickly, especially when it looks like it is safe to
10:11bring maritime traffic through the Gulf. Simply the fact that the Gulf is open will cause prices to
10:18drop dramatically. So I think it's look, we should have done this six weeks ago. He should
10:23have seen this at the beginning. He said, I was surprised that they tried to close the
10:27strait. I was surprised they attacked the Gulf Arab states. I can't imagine the Pentagon didn't
10:32warn him of these dangers beforehand. Maybe he just didn't pay attention.
10:36The president in that true social post at the top of the hour, just before the hour, said that
10:41nuclear was not among the points agreed to. We know that's certainly a sticking point for both
10:45parties when it comes to these discussions. It has been for years at this point. Ambassador,
10:51you're all too familiar with that. Is there a way for the U.S. to get this country to dismantle
10:58its nuclear enrichment program without changing the regime at the top?
11:04No, I think that's that's the clear point. If you cannot change a regime's behavior
11:10behavior and you don't want to live under an unacceptable threat like disappearing in a
11:15mushroom cloud, then the answer is change the regime. George W. Bush put it very, very well
11:21when he was president. He said, we cannot allow the world's most dangerous weapons to fall into
11:26the hands of the world's most dangerous people. And a lot of those most dangerous people are running
11:31the regime in Tehran.
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