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00:00Here to help us break it down, we have Abir Abu-Omar. She's Bloomberg News Deputy UAE Bureau
00:04Chief. Thank you so much for joining us. Skylar Woodhouse is with us here at the table. She is a
00:08White House reporter for Bloomberg. And we also have Konstantin Toripin. He's the AP's Pentagon
00:12reporter. Abir, I want to start with you. It was, I regret this, I like, I'm loathe to say,
00:19but almost slightly quieter overnight. There were still some attacks, including this rocket that
00:24went towards this base in the Indian Ocean. Can you just kind of give us the update, what happened
00:28overnight, what you were seeing throughout your region, and where we start the morning?
00:32Yeah, absolutely. Good morning. Look, I mean, the intensity of the Iran attacks has lessened,
00:38but that doesn't mean that they haven't been happening across different Arab Gulf regions.
00:43Now, some things that we're looking at, essentially, is that this is the third week of the war,
00:48but the intensity or the degree of Iranian attacks has been continuing. And as a matter of fact,
00:54we can say that they've reached new heights, because Iran is now retaliating against some of
00:59the key energy infrastructures in the Arab Gulf. Over the week, they've attacked multiple ones,
01:06including Qatar's largest LNG plant that wiped out potentially 17% of LNG exports across the globe.
01:15This is the Ras La Fan plant in Doha. And Qatar did come out and say that it will take
01:22three to five years
01:23to repair, to fully repair those key plants in its territories. And those LNG exports are going to
01:31have an impact across different countries in Asia, like China and South Korea, but also those in Europe,
01:38including Belgium, for example, and Italy. This is what Qatar said. And this is not just in Qatar.
01:44This is just one of the widest attacks that have happened over the past week. And as you know,
01:49LNG is not like crude in the way it works, because we don't have reserves. We can't
01:54have a policy response to replace missing LNG exports. So it's set to have massive,
02:01massive impacts across the LNG industry, unlike what is happening with crude, which is already at 112,
02:07WTI close to 100. So we're seeing those big moves as a result of President Donald Trump's
02:14administration's commentary overnight. So that is what we're seeing across oil markets. But when it
02:21comes to LNG, this is, again, a massive, a massive move. And we're looking forward to what more Iran
02:28or what Iran is going to target next. But it looks like the retaliation is not stopping what we're what
02:36we've seen overnight, the attacks on the British airbase. That's also something that we did not or the
02:42US administration, according to our sources, had not factored in Iran had the ability to do. So yes,
02:49since the start of the war three weeks ago, or over 20 days ago, across the Middle East, we've seen
02:54the number of attacks from Iran slightly lessen. But that doesn't mean that the parameters of this
03:01war have not been intensifying across the region. Skylar, that's the backdrop to what we're hearing
03:06from the President of the United States. He's, of course, taking note of all that's happening within
03:09the region and looking at the market response as well, which has been significant since the start
03:12of this conflict. How do you square that, what we're seeing, this conflict continuing to widen,
03:18show no signs of slowing down? Yes, he ruled out the prospects of a ceasefire. But that begs the
03:21question of if military action on the US's part were to cease, what would Iran's response to that
03:26be going forward here? Parse, if you could, that statement that we got from the President last
03:31night, that five-point statement about objectives that he says the US has reached or is close to
03:35reaching? I think it's a very interesting statement that we saw from the President yesterday,
03:39especially as earlier in that day, he ruled out a ceasefire. And then now he's saying that they're
03:45going to be winding down the war. So it is very interesting that the President sort of adjusted
03:53his tone very quickly. And it almost makes you wonder who got in his ear, what happened behind the
03:58scenes. I mean, that's something we're all trying to figure out is what were those conversations like
04:02behind the scenes that sort of shifted the President's thinking around this war. And I
04:08think one thing to note more broadly here in the US is for President Trump, the Republican Party,
04:14the administration, it is a midterm here in the US. And obviously, with higher cost of oil,
04:21gas prices here in the US, they're having to navigate that as, you know, the November elections
04:27near, and especially at a time where US Everest members have been killed. And it's, you know, it
04:33raises questions on if we are going to, when I say we, the administration, if they're going to
04:38continue with this war, how much is it, I guess, worth it, if especially, you know, there's the risk of
04:43troops continuing to be wounded and killed.
04:47And on that note, I mean, putting American forces in harm's way, Constantine, I want to ask you,
04:51there's been successive reporting about whether or not the President will use ground troops, and he's been
04:56asked about it, and whether or not he really wants to go in and hold Karg Island. And we've got
05:01some
05:01reporting from Axios that says, you know, the Trump administration is considering plans to occupy or
05:05blockade that island to pressure Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. I was reading this week that
05:12an amphibious assault, if this administration does decide to go forward with that, won't look like
05:17the ones we've seen in the past when we think D-Day and those kinds of boats, one of those
05:20carriers
05:21doesn't even really have a well to launch those boats. What are the odds of that assault happening?
05:25And what will it look like if it does?
05:27Yeah, I mean, it's a good question. So the U.S. military has now sent two separate marine
05:34expeditionary units towards the Middle East. One was coming from the, one was doing exercises off
05:40the island of Taiwan. It has been rerouted to the Middle East. And that group is made up of two
05:47amphibious assault ships led by the USS Tripoli. And then yesterday we reported that the USS
05:56Boxer Amphibious Readiness Group, that's made up of three amphibious assault ships. That's heading
06:01to the Middle East as well. So, you know, sort of to answer your question, you know, it certainly
06:06appears that one of the options that's being teed up here is to have U.S. Marines seize the island
06:15via the ocean.
06:17But do you think, I mean, will that look like what we're picturing with fast boats and men in the
06:23water? Or is there a modern version of that? I was reading that it's more likely to be kind of
06:28a
06:28targeted assault with like choppers coming off these carriers, fewer men in the water, and more of an air
06:33assault being launched from, from these boats. I don't know if that's even something we can answer
06:37at this point, but I just found that interesting because when I think amphibious assaults, I guess
06:41my brain is still going, saving Private Ryan. Right. I mean, you know, if, if I think if the
06:48military does go down, sort of down that path, which, you know, to be clear, you know, we don't
06:53have any indication sort of one way or the other, but, but yeah, I think it'll probably be a blend
06:57of
06:57the two. I, I, you know, I doubt it's going to be absolutely saving Private Ryan with, you know,
07:02sort of waves and waves of amphibious assault craft. But I, I think it'll look a little bit
07:07like that. I mean, the Marine Corps, you still utilize modern versions of the, of those kinds
07:12of crafts. So, you know, probably some version, some version they're in. I want to go to the,
07:17to the straight and four moves, the traffic that we've seen or the lack thereof. And Bloomberg's
07:20reporting that an Indian tanker did get through. We've seen kind of a series of this happening over
07:24the course of the last week, a handful of vessels getting through. If the flags of those vessels,
07:29if those countries are able to communicate with Tehran and negotiate some sort of, of deal here,
07:33can you just get us up to speed on what that negotiation has been like, the degree to which
07:37some traffic has returned here and sort of what is still on the minds of carriers and captains and
07:43insurers as, as this conflict continues? Yeah, absolutely. Look, I mean, the Strait of Hormuz
07:48remains in effect closed. And that is one of the things that have been sort of a sticky point since
07:54the on start of this war. The Iranian regime still has pretty much control over the Strait
07:59of Hormuz, where, as you know, a fifth of the world oil exports go through. And so that was
08:04something that President Trump yesterday said that he's not worried about it, open itself up. But as
08:09you guys have mentioned throughout the past 10 minutes, he then went back and said actually
08:14winding down operations or the military presence in, in Iran. So it's still something that is being
08:22discussed. Now, it doesn't help that over the past week, Iran's chief security advisor,
08:27Ali Larijani, was killed. Now, he was seen as someone who was sat at the table pre-war, who was
08:34sat at the table along with other figures that have been killed. And so we have our own sources
08:40telling us that Western intelligence at this point thinks that the killing of Ali Larijani practically
08:46means that it will be harder for countries, including the UK and France and other countries
08:52in Europe, to have their ships escorted through Iran. And as you remember, President Trump did say
08:58earlier that they will try, the US will try to get ships escorted through the Strait of Hormuz.
09:04But that is a very costly task that hasn't treaped a lot of fruit as we've seen so far.
09:09So effectively, the Strait of Hormuz, yes, there has been a little bit more movement. The AP reported
09:15last week that we've seen 90 tankers or so move through. That is way, way below the numbers that
09:21we used to see before the onstart of this war in the Middle East. Skylar, before we have to go,
09:28I do want to ask you about this OFAC waiver, these sanctions waivers that the White House issued.
09:32Who does that really benefit? Because when you look at it, the US does not buy Iranian oil. Most of
09:37that
09:37Iranian oil is already spoken for by China. So essentially, didn't the White House just give
09:41China a discount on oil and let Iran make money from oil the US didn't want it to sell?
09:46That's a great question. I mean, look, I mean, I think...
09:50What is the White House saying about why this is a good thing? Let's go this way.
09:53Okay, perfect. So, I mean, I think the administration, you know, what they're trying to do,
09:57really anything surrounding this war, they want it to appear as a positive for what, for Americans.
10:05Americans. Even if, talk about the Strait of Hormuz, trying to get goods through, can't get
10:11fertilizer through, planting season for farmers is starting. So they're trying to sort of spin
10:16anything that can look positive for Americans here in the US. And yeah, I mean, that raises questions
10:24because, look, President Trump was supposed to go to China. I was supposed to be going to China next
10:27weekend. So, you know, and that trip is now delayed slash postponed. So there are tons of questions.
10:34Is it just about trying to show that they're doing something?
10:37Yes, because I think so many people, when this war started and still now, even though the president
10:43is laying out these bullet points, everyone is still really trying to figure out what was the
10:49goal of this war that was started. And even if the president says it's winding down, he's still
10:56eyeing sending 2000 plus Marines to the Middle East. And that doesn't sound like winding down if
11:02you're saying you're winding down. Or if you're being called up. All right. Thank you so much.
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