00:00Karg Island, it's a pretty small piece of land. My understanding is that it's about the third of the size
00:04of Manhattan. So this is a very sort of dangerous game, you know, trying to sort of simultaneously affect military
00:10and non-oil targets while at the same time issuing this threat, as you were just describing, saying, you know,
00:15if Iran does not allow transit through Hormuz for other ships, that the oil export infrastructure would also be hit
00:22there.
00:23So, yes, this is – Karg Island handles approximately 90 percent of Iran's oil exports. And let's remember that right
00:29now, basically, Iranian oil is more or less some of the only oil that's making it through the Strait of
00:35Hormuz right now, although, you know, your outlet had some really interesting reporting overnight about how some liquefied petroleum gas
00:41was able to make it through en route to India based on some negotiation between Iran and India.
00:46But, yes, I think President Trump is sort of doing something or attempting to do something that's a pretty volatile
00:52and dangerous game here, which is to sort of get things flowing a little bit or at least more through
00:56the Strait, while at the same time issuing a threat that, if carried out, would in fact restrict the only
01:02amounts of oil that are already sort of getting through.
01:04So I'm very curious to see what happens when markets open again on Sunday night.
01:10Dan Williams, I want to go to you because I want to ask you about this Netanyahu quote that you
01:15have in your most recent article.
01:17The Israeli prime minister, who was very in favor of an operation like this and has been for decades and
01:22tried to get this to happen during the first Trump administration, said something that I found rather surprising, and I'd
01:28like your take on it, about regime change in Iran, saying,
01:31we are creating the optimal conditions for toppling of the regime.
01:34But again, I do not deny that I can't tell you with certainty the Iranian people will bring down the
01:38regime.
01:39A regime is ultimately brought down from within.
01:43Is that likely to happen?
01:44And if it doesn't, what was the point of this operation?
01:48Well, I think that's not inconsistent, given what we heard from the outset, both from the Israeli prime minister and
01:54the U.S. president.
01:55And you'll remember that in the opening statements on February 28th, when this rule began, in fact, Trump had the
02:00punchiest slide.
02:01He said the Iranian people, the Iranian opposition, should shelter indoors while the bombs drop, the implication being the time
02:09would come for them to come out and take the reins of power.
02:12So basically, the Israeli prime minister in those public remarks was circling back to that original idea, saying that now
02:20help that had been promised had now arrived in Iran.
02:24He specifically talked about tactical airstrikes being conducted against besiege and ICRC, sorry, IRGC emplacements in the streets and checkpoints
02:36of Tehran.
02:37These are all meant, he said, to embolden the opposition to come out.
02:40However, he said he can't guarantee it would happen.
02:43Obviously, that would be up to the Iranian people, the opposition, who would face enormous risk still in doing so,
02:49despite having seen the state's capabilities drastically reduced by this war.
02:54I see no inconsistency there.
02:55What was new here was the signaling.
02:58The prime minister is saying, effectively, you waited for the moment.
03:00The moment has now arrived.
03:01It would appear the allies are pressing this advantage as they see it to as far as they can in
03:07the coming days to wither the strength of that state as much as possible, including by applying pressure on energy
03:14in the hope that there will be some kind of action on the ground on organic uprising.
03:19One imagines, on the clandestine level, there's also work being done behind the scenes to encourage that.
03:25The latest there from the prime minister of Israel.
03:27We look to what the president of the United States has said in recent days about the goals and efficacy
03:31of these attacks so far.
03:32He's in Florida this weekend, but he did talk to reporters on the plane ride down there.
03:35Let's take a listen to what he had to say.
03:37Mr. President, when will the Navy start escorting tankers to the Straits of Philadelphia?
03:43That question there from our Jeff Mason, who covers the White House for us here at Bloomberg News.
03:47Jeff joins us now.
03:48And Jeff, I'm curious what more he offered beyond that about what we've seen is this real stillness in the
03:54Persian Gulf, a real reluctance on the part of these tankers to move through the Strait of Hormuz,
03:59despite the fact that the administration has floated reinsurance, has raised the specter of there being naval escorts that haven't
04:05materialized yet.
04:06When is that likely to change in the estimation of the president?
04:11Good question.
04:11First of all, for your viewers and people who are watching on TV, I just want to explain why I'm
04:15in a van.
04:16With that incredible hat, Jeff, I must add, an incredible chapeau.
04:19I appreciate that.
04:20I left the hat on for Christina.
04:22If you thought I wasn't going to comment on that hat, but we do want your opinion on what the
04:26president said, so I will keep my comments to myself.
04:28This is part of the uniform of a White House correspondent.
04:32But to your question, David, the president didn't give a whole lot more detail.
04:35And one of the questions I asked was when the Navy ships would start escorting tankers through the Straits of
04:43Hormuz.
04:43And he said soon, I think that's in part because he is sensitive to the fact that the oil markets
04:49are going crazy over this war.
04:52And the president has sought to send different signals.
04:58Yesterday, the defense secretary said in his press conference about the Strait of Hormuz, we've got it taken care of.
05:03You don't need to worry about it.
05:04Well, that's not how markets feel.
05:06But the administration is largely focused, primarily focused on actually executing the war.
05:14But energy markets and how to deal with that strait is certainly at the top of their mind, even if
05:18they're not giving more clarity about when those ships are going to start that operation.
05:23It's very sunny in Florida.
05:24I just want to point out there's a reason for the hat.
05:26It's in West Palm Beach and it is sunny.
05:28I've had to sit next to other reporters in those pool vans doing live shots.
05:31I have never had to execute one myself, so well done, Jeff.
05:35You can borrow the fedora when you do that.
05:36Ben, I do have another energy question for you.
05:40We're talking about the strait and how it's blockaded and possible workarounds.
05:44And there aren't a ton, but Saudi does have a few pipelines that kind of go across the Red Sea.
05:49And right now, they are trying to bring a new one online a little bit faster.
05:54It's set to start or ramp up production fairly soon, 5 million of barrels per day.
05:58And there's a flotilla of tankers kind of en route from the Red Sea to Singapore.
06:02I'm wondering if that will help ease the pressure on Asia that seems to be feeling the squeeze from this
06:08particular shortage very acutely.
06:11I think perhaps a little bit.
06:12You know, all of these solutions are, by some measure, band-aids, right?
06:16I mean, there's no getting around the sort of massive disruption in the strait.
06:19But, yes, I think one of the big questions there is to what extent does this, while sort of resolving
06:24perhaps one risk in getting some more oil flowing into that through that east-west pipeline to avoid the Strait
06:30of Hormuz, you know, ships would still go near Yemen, right?
06:33And so, you know, to what extent could there perhaps be some other risks from the Houthi rebels there?
06:38I mean, I think getting to something that Jeff was saying a moment ago, I think a little bit of
06:42the sort of lack of clarity perhaps around what the U.S. military goals here or what the U.S.
06:48sort of military resolution of this could ultimately be is because I don't think anybody really knows at what point
06:53the economic impact of this starts to have really tangible effects on the U.S. military posture and military strategy,
07:01right?
07:01I mean, there's so much in play.
07:02We just had some downward revisions to U.S. economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2025.
07:08I think that's probably something that the White House is acutely aware of.
07:11This morning, we've got gasoline prices now averaging approximately $3.68 per gallon and still headed upward.
07:18And so, yeah, I mean, I think one reason why oil markets have not only been obviously had huge upward
07:23pressure and prices have soared,
07:25but there's also just so much astonishing volatility because the sort of, you know, outlook for how this could possibly
07:30end remains so uncertain.
07:32And, yes, to get back to your question, sending some more shipments through that east-west pipeline could perhaps alleviate,
07:39you know, by a little bit of time,
07:40these big releases planned from strategic reserves by a little bit of time.
07:44You know, you've got a few other minor levers that can be pulled.
07:47But, again, these are all sort of very small-scale solutions to what's a large and absolutely unprecedented problem.
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