00:00My first guest tonight is a very special one, joined by General Sir Alexander Richard David
00:04Sheriff, former NATO commander, retired senior British Army officer. Appreciate General Sheriff,
00:10you joining me. Makes sense of the events of the last 12 hours for us. We were, this morning,
00:18Donald Trump had spoken about eliminating or destroying Iran's civilization, and then suddenly
00:26we hear of a ceasefire. How do you see it, this two-week ceasefire within hours of threatening
00:32to eliminate Iran's civilization? Well, thank you very much for having me,
00:38and it's a pleasure to be with you. Well, the good news is that the threatened genocide of Iran
00:47encapsulated in those words that he was going to destroy Iranian civilization has been averted
00:52for the moment. But the reality is that this ceasefire is fragile. An awful lot has to be
01:01negotiated. And the truth is, too, that this is a massive strategic setback for America and a
01:07humiliation for Trump. However much in Washington, they will try and portray this as a victory.
01:13The very fact that Trump has accepted Iran's 10 points as a basis for negotiation,
01:19and indeed in his recent tweet suggested that America goes along with most of them,
01:24is a real reverse for America. And the truth is, too, that the world finds itself in a much worse
01:32place now than it was on February the 27th before this war began because of the Iranian control over
01:39the Strait of Hormuz. That Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz is going to put billions of dollars
01:46into the Iranian exchequer, cement the autocratic, theocratic regime of the ayatollahs, and ultimately
01:54be really bad news for the Iranian people. So you're calling it a strategic setback for the United
02:00States, General Sheriff. But to quote Donald Trump in his statement, he said,
02:04the reason for this ceasefire is we have already met and exceeded all our military objectives. Do you
02:12not accept that the United States and Israel, by pounding Iran in the way that they did, have at
02:18least partly met their military objectives by seriously undermining Iran's infrastructure?
02:25Well, let's be clear that Trump flip-flopped around with a range of objectives when this war began,
02:32ranging from unconditional surrender to regime change to the writing down of ballistic missiles
02:38and the elimination of the nuclear threat. None of that has happened. Yes, the Americans and Israelis
02:44have launched an industrial-scale aerial assault on Iran. Yes, Iranian military capabilities have been
02:52dramatically written down, although it is clear that Iran still retains a capability with ballistic
02:59missiles, and has thousands of cheap Shahed drones capable of launching at not only Gulf states,
03:06but also shipping in the Gulf. But the fact is that so long as Iran continues to hold the Strait
03:13of
03:13Hormuz, Trump and America is losing. That is the reality, the strategic reality, and that represents
03:20the largest, the greatest strategic disaster America has seen since Vietnam.
03:24Now, you're making a very big point. You're claiming this is the greatest strategic disaster
03:29that the United States has faced since Vietnam, and you're referring to the Strait of Hormuz. But the
03:35fact is, the Strait of Hormuz was open even before the war began, of course. You're now suggesting
03:41that by weaponizing the Strait of Hormuz, Iran has a deadly weapon in its hand that it can use as
03:49and
03:49win and virtually hold the global economy to hostage. Is that what you suggest is the strategic
03:56mistake that the United States didn't recognize the key role that the Strait of Hormuz, this waterway,
04:02would play? Precisely. You put it absolutely accurately. That before the February the 27th,
04:10the Strait of Hormuz was free to global navigation. Now it is under Iranian control. And one of the 10
04:17points
04:18in that 10 point plan, which Trump has accepted as the basis for discussion and negotiation, says
04:24that Iran will retain sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, and we can expect to see swinging tolls
04:30put on shipping going through those straits, which will make life very difficult for the Gulf states,
04:35and indeed for shipping generally. So, and as you say, Iran absolutely realizes that it now has
04:41a weapon which it can, with which it can hold the global economy to ransom.
04:46But that's, you know, you keep referring, General, to the 10 point plan that Iran has put forward as
04:51the basis for negotiation. The Americans haven't abandoned, we are told, their 15 point plan, one of
04:57which is that Iran will have to give up its nuclear enrichment facilities. So it isn't, are you saying that
05:04this is entirely a win-win for Iran and a lose-lose for America and Israel? Because once the negotiations
05:11start, it's only then that we will know actually what's on the table from both sides.
05:17Well, I think we can see what's on the table. Iran's 10 point plan, which Trump has accepted as the
05:22basis
05:22for negotiation. And as you say, one of those points in that 10 point plan is that Iran retains the
05:29right to develop nuclear capabilities as any other nation does. We will see what happens in the next
05:3510 days. But I come back to my point that while Iran holds the Strait of Hormuz, Iran has Trump
05:41over a
05:41barrel. But would you therefore say, as we look back, that this has been a war that could have been
05:47eminently avoided, that this was a war that was illegal under international law, that while negotiations
05:54were on in Geneva, you go and bomb Iran, you take out, assassinate their leaders. Is that what makes
06:01you believe that this war was a strategic mistake in the first place? Because there will be those who
06:08will say that Iran constitutes a danger to regional stability in West Asia, and particularly to the
06:15existence of Israel. And your last statement is absolutely true. Iran has demonstrated that it is
06:22a regional threat. It has been a source of terrorism. It has absolutely been an existential threat to
06:29Israel. And it has exported instability and terrorism globally. But the truth is also that
06:37this war has been a masterclass in futility. It has achieved absolutely nothing of what Trump wanted to do,
06:43except destroy large amounts of the Iranian military. But those, in a sense,
06:48our tactical successes, strategically, it has been a disaster for America.
06:53So what was, according to you, what was the error? Where did the Americans go wrong? Did they go wrong
06:59right from day one in not having a clear strategy and an end game? Did they go along in your
07:05view with
07:06what Benjamin Netanyahu wanted? What went wrong when you come on the show tonight and say this is
07:11America's worst strategic disaster since Vietnam. They went wrong because there was no clear strategy.
07:18There was no clear idea of how the war would end. And they failed to, the American leadership,
07:26Trump particularly and Hegseth, failed to recognize the importance of the Strait of Hormors. And let's
07:33be clear, the American military have been wargaming the implications of an attack on Iran for 20 years or
07:40so. And they have absolutely wargamed to death the implications for the Strait of Hormors. And they
07:46would have known very, very clearly what Iran was likely to do. But that was ignored by Trump,
07:52in a state of hubris, the assumption that the all-powerful American military could bomb Iran into
07:59submission. Bombing as a campaign has been proven again and again in history not to work. And yet again,
08:07it has not worked. So how do you see this now play out? Negocations reportedly will start on Friday.
08:14Do you believe this fragile ceasefire will hold? Do you believe Trump's hubris will return to haunt him?
08:21If there are commentators like yourself who say that this is the worst US disaster since Vietnam,
08:27that it will prick his ego somewhere and he will then look at ways in which he can once again
08:33resume
08:34hostilities? Do you see that happening? Or do you believe this ceasefire will hold?
08:39We can assume no rational thinking from President Trump. I think he's deranged. I think the tweet that
08:45the post last night about genocide, the post he put out on Easter Sunday about Iran, and it also
08:54demonstrates a degree of derangement, confusion, irrationality, which is a global danger, frankly.
09:00So I don't know where these negotiations will go. I think the chances of them succeeding are very
09:06remote. But I come back to my point that while Iran holds the Strait of Hormuz, America is held
09:13hostage and the global community, the global economic community is also held hostage.
09:18It's very important that you're calling what Donald Trump said about eliminating a civilization as
09:23genocidal. You're also saying there are very remote chances of these negotiations succeeding.
09:30Are you therefore suggesting that a couple of weeks from now, you fear the worst and the hostilities
09:35could resume and Iran could once again have its chokehold over the Strait of Hormuz and
09:40put the world again on the edge? Is that the fear?
09:43I think it is absolutely possible. I think the only thing that might change that dynamic,
09:50firstly, let's assume, given the very low-grade quality of negotiators like Witkoff and others,
10:00the Americans produce, that the Iranians will run rings around them. But I think the only thing that
10:05can control Trump now really is the financial and the big tech bros in America, American public opinion.
10:14And I think when the full implications of the nature of this setback for America really are digested
10:23in American public opinion over the next couple of weeks, it is going to make it very difficult for
10:29America to return to the fight if they can't get what they want in these negotiations.
10:35But I come back to my point. Already, Trump has conceded that these 10 points are a basis for
10:42negotiation. So in a sense, he's given the initiative already to the Iranians.
10:46Can I ask you, therefore, in conclusion, the biggest takeaway, would it be right to say that
10:51in an asymmetrical war, where one side had all the military might on its side, had this bombing campaign,
10:59does it show that a country with drones and cheap missiles, or cheap drones certainly,
11:05has been able to show that in asymmetrical warfare, you can't take victory for granted?
11:11And that's the biggest mistake that Donald Trump made. He thought Iran was Venezuela.
11:18Again, I think you're absolutely right. As Henry Kissinger wrote in a different context about
11:25Vietnam. The guerrilla wins if he does not lose. The conventional army loses if it does not win.
11:32In this case, it is Iran that is the guerrilla, the asymmetric force, and America, the conventional
11:37army. And that is precisely what has happened.
11:41A final word, then. If you were advising Donald Trump, what would you tell Donald Trump,
11:47General Sheriff? Now, what would you tell him, given that, as I said, the negotiations are set
11:50to begin in two days? What would you be advising the US President and, dare I say, the Israeli Prime
11:57Minister, who seems far more determined to go ahead with the war? Resign, go into retirement,
12:03and hand over to a rational individual who can show the necessary intellectual capabilities required
12:09of leadership of the United States of America. Okay. I'm going to leave it there. Those are very,
12:15very sharp words that you've used today. You've suggested that the American President has got this
12:20badly wrong. And may I repeat for the umpteenth time what you've said? You believe this is the greatest
12:25strategic or the biggest strategic disaster that the United States has had since the war in Vietnam.
12:32General Sir Alexander Richard David Sheriff for joining me on the show and speaking so plainly.
12:38Thank you very much. Thank you for having me.
Comments