00:09good afternoon you're watching the business today's show with me sakshi batra this is
00:13where i get you all the market closing action on the last trade but first up
00:16what's hot in the world of corporate and financial news is what we'll get you
00:24us iran two weeks east fire triggers a massive market rally as brent crude prices also plunge
00:30over 13 the nifty crosses 24 000 for the first time since march 11 in intraday trade and investors
00:37gained 14 lakh crore rupees in just today's trading session with autos financials real
00:43estate and oil sensitive stocks leading the surge
00:51rbi keeps repo rate unchanged at 5.25 percent with a neutral stance citing strong f526 growth but has
00:59flagged global risks to inflation and supply chains the reserve bank of india has projected
01:04financial year 2027 gdp growth at 6.9 percent lower than the f526 outlook and inflation at 4.6
01:11while forex reserves remain comfortable
01:19adani group stocks rally sharply in trade with adani green adani enterprises and adani ports
01:25rising up to 13 percent adding nearly one lakh crore rupees in the market cap of the group
01:30the surge comes right after the u.s court has allowed a pre-motion conference in the sec case
01:37and easing geopolitical tensions that have lifted the sentiments
01:45a major relief for airlines as airport charges are cut amid the ongoing west asia crisis landing and
01:52parking fees for domestic flights at major airports have now been reduced by 25 percent for the next
01:58three months the move is aimed at easing cost pressures on carriers with the impact to be adjusted
02:04in future tariff cycles the government allows wider industrial rules of the commercial lpg asking states
02:16to implement the decision sectors like pharma food steel and glass can now get up to 70 percent of
02:23pre-march 2026 consumption with priority for units where lpg is critical and cannot be replaced by natural gas
02:43straight away looking at how the markets are trading it's the fifth consecutive session for
02:47the sensex when the sensex is up into the green and the nifty is also sharply higher in trade all
02:52of
02:52this is led by the enthusiasm and some positive spirits coming in on the kind of confirmations that
02:59we are getting in on the west asia war uh now seeing a ceasefire for the next two weeks and
03:04of course
03:04of the hopes of straight or foremost also being open that had completely choked the world of the energy
03:10supplies and critical supplies as well and therefore you do see an all across the board buying signals
03:16and of course strong momentum across the board on the nifty we are at 24 000 a sharp 875 point
03:24of a rally
03:25there look at what's happening in the other sectors the nifty bank is higher in trade as well almost
03:30five and a half percent up all the sectors of the nifty are up and about real estate is leading
03:35the
03:35rally right now 6.7 percent of an uptick there autos are driving up the show as well six and
03:41a half
03:41percent uptick on that one as well all the banking sectors so private sector psu banks financial services
03:47that's the nbfc sector all of them are up by over five and a half percent each you're also looking
03:52at
03:52the broader markets participating in full throttle the small cap index is up by 4.4 percent you can
03:58see even the oil and gas space the it pharma space also joining in hands as well let's now welcome
04:03our guest on board shayna mukaddam manga expert to share with us a fresh take on the markets as well
04:08as the outlook from here on shana graph noon good to have you with us what a fantastic day uh
04:14you know
04:14of course investors with uh have been waiting with bated breath for this kind of a rally to come in
04:20it's been seriously a long time since we've actually seen such a kind of momentum on the
04:24markets 875 point of a rally on the nifty and all the sectors up by four five six or even
04:30seven percent
04:31higher in trade it's been seriously long since we actually saw such deep green shade um onto the d
04:36street what's your sense will this continue that's the question yeah hi good afternoon absolutely it's
04:43been a wonderful day uh and actually uh what i believe but you know we have to take it a
04:48bit
04:48uh more calmly because i would believe a lot of today's upside could be also from uh some bit of
04:55short covering so uh while the mood has turned positive i would say that you know you it's not
05:02going to be a one way up but at the same time trajectory is up and i would not be
05:07surprised if
05:07we keep moving towards the 24 500 type of levels of the next 15 odd days and then of course
05:13we need
05:14to see you know what will be the final outcome of this um sees the ceasefire that's ongoing yeah
05:21absolutely so shayna i mean are you buying right now uh you know uh have you been asking all your
05:26clients who've been just waiting for some signal that the we are nearing the war's end and those
05:32signals have finally come what are you telling those investors well what i would uh recommend
05:38is that you know these are the times where you should be stock picking uh rebalance your portfolio
05:44and uh prepare yourself for the next two years because i don't see it going one way up but at
05:49the
05:49same time i think this has given us an opportunity to pick up stocks or pick up sectors which actually
05:56have corrected quite a bit and have got good potential over the next three to five years case being in
06:01something like banking metals defense uh so you name it you know there have been uh good stocks
06:08that have corrected and giving you buying opportunity so i think selective buying would be the name of
06:13the game selective buying will be the name of the game we've also seen the big rbi policy come in
06:19today the repo date has been unchanged um you know at 5.25 percent this was largely on expected lines
06:26but what we've also seen is that uh there are some signals that we were waiting for so the rbi
06:32governor has flagged the rising risks to the economy the growth uh projections uh with this war and the
06:38impact that would have on inflationary aspect what could that do to fiscal deficit at large even though
06:44the vigil is on at this point in time the macro fundamentals he did point out are very strong
06:49uh how would you look at some of these signals as to what would this bring in uh for the
06:54market
06:55participants to see i think it was a very positive though expected the policy was on expected lines
07:02but it is positive it has actually uh thrown up uh good numbers in terms of growth inflation also see
07:10these are doable numbers at the same time i believe the rbi governor has cautioned us that uh you know
07:17while they are optimistic there are risks to uh these numbers in terms of any of the other factors
07:23and there's so many of them like for example crude oil uh depending on how it moves depending on how
07:29uh the tariffs uh play out in terms of u.s tariffs exports so there could be some uh impact
07:37in terms of
07:38the numbers that they have thrown up at the same a negative impact but at the same time i think
07:43the
07:43mood is quite positive and i would believe that he has uh indicated that there are some uh leeways
07:51that he's given to the banking sector wherein i think the liquidity will be sufficient and i believe
07:57you know it's going to be a stock picker's market it always has been you know equity markets always have
08:02been a stock picker stock picker's market and i think this has given us an opportunity i look at it
08:08as a positive uh you know it was a positive review that the governor gave us today in fact the
08:15mpc has
08:16also highlighted um or outlined five key concerns warning of pressure on inflation on growth on
08:22liquidity and financial conditions as well in case the global uncertainties continue to persist the
08:28central bank has also cautioned that higher crude prices and weak global demand could weigh on india's
08:33economic stability as well he's also spoken about the recent uh the uh you know ongoing ceasefire that
08:39we are witnessing at west asia so let's first listen in to some of those impactful bites that we heard
08:44from uh uh rbi governor sanji malhotra there
08:57uh
09:11uh
09:12uh
09:12uh
09:13uh
09:13uh
09:13uh
09:13uh
09:13are full. But how much damage has happened? I don't know. How much time will happen.
09:20There are some facilities that have been closed in the Gulf.
09:24There will be time to start with them. This is not the case.
09:29So this is what we can say today.
09:31But we have given all the things that we have given you.
09:38First and foremost,
09:40elevated crude oil prices could increase imported inflation
09:44and widen the current account deficit.
09:47Second, disruptions in energy markets, fertilizers,
09:52and other commodities may adversely impact industry,
09:56agriculture, and services, reducing domestic output.
10:01Third, heightened uncertainty, increased risk aversion,
10:06and safe-haven demand could impact domestic liquidity conditions,
10:12economic activity, consumption, and investment.
10:16Fourth, weaker global growth prospects may dampen external demand
10:22and reduce remittance flows.
10:26Finally, adverse spillovers from global financial markets could tighten domestic financial conditions
10:34and raise the cost of borrowing.
10:37Some of which we have already witnessed.
10:41The RBI governor has also spoken about the volatility in the forex market,
10:44saying that recent forex measures are not going to remain forever,
10:48and were also aimed at ensuring stability as well.
10:51Sanjay Malhotra also highlighted the heightened volatility in late March
10:55and the rising arbitrage between NDF and deliverable markets as well,
10:59stressing the need for efficient price discovery there too.
11:02You know, Shaina, I'll come to you and I'll try and understand from you as well on the rupee.
11:06Of course, the recent steps taken by the RBI have definitely stemmed the freefall
11:12that we were witnessing on the rupee.
11:13We had seen 95 against the dollar as well.
11:16Slowly and gradually the steps have finally worked upon
11:19and we have seen a stronger rupee even today,
11:22about 50 pesa of an improvement and below 93 or around 92.5 odd levels
11:26is what we've already seen for the rupee.
11:28You know, what are the kinds of concerns that, you know, one should continue to,
11:34or maybe a caution that one should continue to keep an eye out on the rupee,
11:38and how therefore that should imply what decisions you will make on your investments?
11:44There are a couple of important factors.
11:46I think the RBI governor has highlighted them.
11:49In fact, in terms of, you know, a lot of outflows have taken place
11:53if you saw the last couple of months.
11:55And that to an extent is affecting the, impacting the rupee,
11:59the appreciation it has appreciated.
12:01Another factor, of course, is the crude.
12:03Crude, of course, is an important component, you know, of our imports.
12:09And with the prices having gone up, to that extent there was this issue as to,
12:15you know, the impact on the dollar, rupee dollar exchange rate.
12:18But now that things have settled, at least to some extent,
12:22we are seeing again some bit of stability come in.
12:26So I would say these factors will be important and we'd have to track it.
12:29But at the same time, I would say that if things remain stable,
12:34we could see the range between 93 and 92, 93 type of exchange rate for the dollar,
12:40over the next one year.
12:42Because we've already seen the rupee having depreciated.
12:44And I would believe that the RBI governor would be conscious of the fact
12:47to see that, you know, there is stability maintained.
12:49At the same time, he has mentioned that we have sufficient reserves.
12:53He has given us the number, like I think it's 690…
12:56About 697 billion dollars, yes.
12:58Yeah, yeah, yeah.
12:59So that is sufficient actually to see us through at least for six to nine months.
13:03So I don't think that is over, you know, there's an overload of concern.
13:08At the same time, as investors, we need to be conscious as to what's happening
13:13to some of these important factors.
13:15Okay.
13:16Let me also go across to my colleague, Nachiket, who's joining in right here
13:20to give us more perspective as to what should one understand
13:22with RBI statements on the Forex measures,
13:26saying that, you know, they are not going to remain forever
13:28and they were truly aimed at ensuring stability.
13:31Nachiket, what do we understand?
13:32And, you know, at this point in time, of course, this was the much-needed step
13:36to prevent the absolute freefall into the rupee.
13:39We've seen, you know, an improvement there.
13:41But if the steps are not going to prolong for long,
13:44is there going to be, you know, further risk to that?
13:46And why is the RBI, you know, okay with that?
13:52See, two things that we need to look at here is, you know, initially,
13:57when the RBI took this measure of, you know, barring banks from the non-deliverable forwards,
14:03that is when there was a lot of volatility that was seen in the Forex market with, you know,
14:11the onshore and offshore price differential that happened because of that lot of…
14:16Okay, Nachiket, I'll have to stop you right here.
14:18That is…
Comments