00:00There's a number of questions longer term around Europe and the security and supply of gas and oil.
00:06But I think markets, as you say, will be focusing on what were the big themes at the beginning of
00:11this year.
00:11Before this, if you go back six to eight weeks, what were the big themes?
00:15One, as you mentioned, was around this diversification thematic.
00:19As you suggest last year, the U.S. didn't perform as well as certain other markets.
00:23Europe, EM, etc. had a better year in terms of equity price performance.
00:28And I think there'll be a lot of people assuming that you get a resumption of that thematic because of
00:32this broader diversification theme.
00:35Not just, you know, potentially in certain areas, you know, across the globe, but also down the market cap spectrum.
00:42And, of course, that's what you're seeing today even within the U.S. market.
00:45You know, the performance of the Russell, etc.
00:47So there's that broadening thesis that we think is playing out.
00:51And that will resume on the back of this ceasefire, as you say, assuming that's capable of holding.
00:56And I think the other important thing as well as that is the massive debate discussion around the AI trade,
01:02right?
01:02We've seen the performance of the picks and shovels trade, the semi-cap equipment, etc.
01:08And I think, you know, one of the big debates clearly in the market, aside from the conflict with Iran,
01:14has obviously been around software and what the terminal value for a sector like software is.
01:19It's previously seen as sort of stable, sticky, recurring revenue streams.
01:22And what are the other, if you like, asset-light sectors that could be disrupted from AI longer term versus
01:28the sort of more traditional asset-heavy sectors where you probably assume there is less likelihood of AI disruption?
01:35And, again, I think some of those thematics that have been very much in the focus at the start of
01:39this year will come back to the fore.
01:42I would just flag we have had a 7,700 S&P target on the back of good earnings growth
01:49that we'd expected this year through for the U.S.
01:52And I think, you know, what we'd been careful not to do is downgrade that too hastily on the back
01:58of the conflict.
01:58Of course, if this had been a prolonged conflict and oil prices had stayed high, that would have been a
02:03risk to growth and to earnings for sure.
02:05But I think, you know, this will give conviction that the U.S. market as well as the rest of
02:10the globe and that broadening thesis can hold,
02:12the U.S. market can resume some good momentum in many cases.
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