00:00I want to start with what happened yesterday. President Trump signaled the end of the war.
00:05S&P rallied. Oil came down after hitting records. Love to start with your reaction to that.
00:14Thank you for having me. I think the cure for higher oil price is higher oil price, right?
00:20But more broadly, I think yesterday we saw, again, immutable laws in action.
00:28Last year, we framed kind of market uncertainty around immutable laws, i.e. things that are so fundamental to workings
00:37of economy and markets that they cannot change very quickly in the near term and they can actually influence outcomes.
00:46So one such immutable law is supply chain and the fact that it cannot rewire within a short period of
00:53time.
00:53And the Middle East conflict is not just about energy and oil supply disruption.
00:59It's about fertilizers. It's about food prices.
01:02My colleagues were flagging to me about the helium prices going higher, a lot higher as well.
01:08So that is one immutable law that can govern and shape the outcome.
01:12And the other immutable law is that servicing cost through the feedback loop that is spiking yields.
01:20So the takeaway here is really that it's somewhat similar to last April, I would say, which is that uncertainty
01:27does not automatically mean risk of predicting the blow by blow policy announcement is extremely difficult.
01:35But appreciating immutable laws governing how economies operates can really help us narrow near term paths and also around conviction
01:45of risk taking, especially as we have seen again and again, the markets have gotten quite used to and really
01:52easily influenced by near term extrapolation.
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