00:00Let's get into this call. Overweight US equities. What's underpinning that?
00:03So we've been advocates of the diversification away from the US for over a year. And of course,
00:09that was based on the broadening of the EPS. EPS coming from broad sets of sectors,
00:14more cyclically driven. And this assumption and what we've been seeing in the data
00:22was telling us this would continue into this year. And of course, the war has happened.
00:27And with markets almost at all time highs, and it's not only S&P, it's more cyclical markets like
00:33Europe as well. You have to step back and ask yourself, has anything changed? Even if the war
00:38finishes today, which of course it won't, has there been other damage done to the economy?
00:45Or it's going to just triple through, trickle through damage to consumer? And your assumption
00:52right now should be for estimates for cyclical earnings are most likely too high. So we expect
00:59some downgrades there. And in the world where downgrades are coming through or will come through,
01:04you look to the parts of the market that are upgrading. And that's the US. But again, the US
01:09is upgrading through very different sets of sectors. And it's tech again, it's mega tech. So AI that was on
01:18the shaky grounds at the start of the year is back because it's derated and earnings are getting
01:24upgraded. That's why.
01:26you
01:26you
01:26you
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