00:15Ultimately, I think the president's having a heck of a say in who runs Iran, given the ongoing operation we
00:21have.
00:21So there's no expansion in our objectives. We know exactly what we're trying to achieve.
00:25And they're calling. They're saying, how do we make a deal?
00:27I said, you're being a little bit late and we want to fight.
00:42Modern betting markets like Polymarket are quite different to the older betting markets that you might have come across in
00:49previous years for one big reason.
00:51You can put money onto those betting markets without giving your name, without giving any qualifying information.
00:58And you can load your account using crypto. That means these things can be completely anonymous.
01:04And that creates an opportunity for insider betting that doesn't really exist in more regulated betting forums.
01:12We've been looking recently at two big events. The U.S. attack on Venezuela in January and the recent attack
01:19on Iran.
01:21And in both cases, there were unusual betting patterns that preceded the American attacks.
01:26With the Iranian attacks, we identified about a dozen wallets who made about $300,000 from betting on the timing
01:33of the attacks shortly before they took place.
01:36And if you look at the odds quoted in the market, you can also see there are strange moves about
01:4120 hours before the attacks took place.
01:44We spotted a similar pattern with strangely confident bets shortly before the capture of Nicolas Maduro in early January.
01:53Both of these cases point to the possibility of a problem with insider betting by perhaps military personnel.
01:59And that is a serious issue.
02:02The concern is not so much about people making a bit of money here or there.
02:05It's about the possibility that these new anonymous betting markets will mean that operational security is simply much harder to
02:14maintain when it comes to secret military events.
02:20The Gulf States, I mean, they've had this incredible boom, probably the best period in their existence, you know, famously
02:27in Britain.
02:28I think a couple of hundred thousand British people are living in Dubai.
02:31It's become the sort of dream lifestyle.
02:33Is that dream all over now?
02:36No, I think we need to be to be careful.
02:38Definitely.
02:39Look, the Gulf States are are built and their success relies, yes, on their incredible financial wealth, on on pretty
02:48well sought development strategies that become aviation hubs, logistics hubs, financial hubs, etc.
02:57I mean, and they deserve a lot of credit for that.
02:59And I would say at the moment, actually, the response by governments is is a good one.
03:05It's not it's not it's not perfect, but, you know, there is no large scale panic.
03:09They're communicating quite clearly.
03:12Are there problems?
03:13Yes.
03:14I mean, as we discussed earlier, for all these years, they were selling one thing to their citizens, to expats
03:20and so on is how safe we are and how immune from geopolitics we are.
03:25And suddenly it's not the case.
03:26But the main currency for them was this confidence, right?
03:29And this is what the Iranians are after.
03:31They're trying to ruin the confidence that that existed.
03:35That's a cost that is difficult to to measure.
03:39Now, do I think they can rebound?
03:41Yes, they will.
03:42Their governments are going to spend very heavily the day after to, you know, deal with with losses to infrastructure
03:50to there will be big spending packages.
03:54There will be a global narrative campaign to fix things and so on.
04:01I mean, I'm not saying this is terminal, but it tells them something that you cannot divorce yourself from a
04:08very unstable region.
04:10They're going to have to be much more involved in the running.
04:13And and sometimes them being involved increases the risk, as we saw in Yemen and Sudan and other places.
04:45And you know, it's really a nation that was out of control and they would have used it on us
04:50if we let them, if we waited any longer.
05:02This narrow strip of water just south of Iran holds a key to the world economy and energy markets as
05:09the US and Israel fight Iran and Iran strikes the UAE and other US allies.
05:14The Strait of Hormuz sits on one of the world's busiest shipping routes, acting as a gateway to the oil
05:20and gas fields, refineries and terminals of the Gulf.
05:24A fifth of the world's oil and gas passes through it and vital commodities like fertilizers.
05:29It's a choke point for energy flowing from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and other producers to buyers elsewhere, led by
05:37China, India and Japan.
05:39So just how vulnerable is the world economy to what happens in the Strait?
05:43It's just 33 kilometers wide at its narrowest.
05:47Near enough to fly missiles or drones across easily.
05:50That's exactly what's happening now.
05:51And shipping through the busy waterway is shutting down.
05:55On Monday, Iran's Revolutionary Guard said the Strait was closed and that it would fire on any ship trying to
06:01pass.
06:02But even before that, the Strait was effectively shut because no one was willing to send ships down it.
06:07An oil tankard suffered an explosion on Sunday, one of several hits since the war started.
06:13Tankers and their insurance companies are now steering clear of the Strait.
06:17The world's biggest container shipping lines have suspended services through the Gulf.
06:21Iran has blocked Hormuz in the past, including in the 1980s when it laid mines.
06:26This time, worries about a supply crunch or sending oil and gas prices up.
06:31The region's oil fields have only about 25 days of storage.
06:35If they can't get oil out, they'll need to shut down.
06:38Higher energy prices in turn could trigger inflation globally.
06:42That could delay interest rate cuts and dampen economic growth.
06:45And while the U.S. is self-sufficient in energy, higher oil prices would hit gas prices in the U
06:51.S. in an election year.
06:53That's why markets and traders are gaming out just how long the fighting might go on.
06:58And keeping an anxious eye on what's happening in the Strait of Hormuz.
07:09You know, by the time you start seeing this inflation actually trickle down into higher grocery prices or higher prices
07:17for filling your car up at the petrol station or fill it up with gas, as you Americans insist on
07:22saying, by the time that's happened, it's almost too late to do anything about it.
07:27So normally, you know, you might harbor some sort of hope that stock markets would fall hard enough for Donald
07:35Trump to look at this situation and say, well, this is bad.
07:38Maybe I shouldn't be doing this.
07:40My sense, shout if you disagree, Rob, but is that markets have not fallen anywhere near close enough to make
07:48Trump think this is a bad idea.
07:50Or should I have a rethink or should I more clearly articulate my strategy?
07:55I think that's true.
07:56I do agree with you there.
07:58It's not enough to give him a red light.
08:01But energy will scare him.
08:04This is a problem for the global economy, right?
08:06Because, you know, we've seen this movie before in 2022 when energy prices like really rocket higher.
08:14You end up with inflation and, you know, OK, 2022 was different.
08:19We were just coming through covid, yada, yada.
08:21But nonetheless, this is a potentially a source of rekindling of inflation, which central banks and governments have only just
08:30kind of got a handle on.
08:37So we all know that the conflict between the US, Israel and Iran is impacting oil prices.
08:43But what about food?
08:44The disruption in the Strait of Hormuz isn't just about oil.
08:48It also threatens food supplies across the Middle East.
08:51Much of the grain, packaged food and fresh produce feeding the Gulf passes through that narrow stretch of water.
08:57Now vessels are avoiding it, raising concerns about shortages and higher prices.
09:03The Gulf states are extremely dependent on imports.
09:06The UAE, for example, imports about 90 percent through Jebel Ali in Dubai,
09:10a hub that supplies containerized food to 50 million people across four Gulf countries, as well as further afield.
09:17Iran produces more of its own food than most of its neighbors.
09:20But food inflation there is already running at more than 100 percent.
09:24And many households were struggling to afford basic staples even before the latest escalation.
09:30Analysts say that strikes and fighting could damage the infrastructure inside Iran that produces food and keeps it moving.
09:37And if the disruption continues, any drying up of imports would make things even worse.
09:43Iran has banned all exports of food and agricultural products until further notice to prioritise the supply of essential commodities
09:49to its people.
09:51The UAE, Saudi Arabia and Iran all hold food reserves to different extents and can reroute some trade to different
09:58ports.
09:58Iran can also bring in limited supplies over land.
10:01But rerouting has constraints and often comes at much higher cost.
10:06Wealthier states, like the UAE and Saudi Arabia, may be able to absorb some of those costs.
10:11But the UAE isn't just feeding itself.
10:14It acts as a regional hub, re-exporting food to countries including Yemen, Sudan and Somalia.
10:20If disruption drags on, those more fragile economies could feel the impact quickly.
10:25And in Iran, where rising food prices fuelled recent protests against the regime, further price spikes or shortages could prove
10:32particularly sensitive.
Comments