00:00Prediction Market's Edge right here on the Early Line.
00:01It is a Friday, and let's get excited for some Hockey Talk.
00:04Why? We've got a great guest here at Sonny Wright's side.
00:06It's Joe O'Neary. George Kurtz joins us.
00:08We know he's going to have a focus on the Yankees coming back to the Bronx today.
00:11We've got to get down to some business today in the National Hockey League here.
00:15How about that, George?
00:17How about that? We sort of forget here.
00:19Hockey, only about two weeks left in the regular season here.
00:21A lot of teams battling for a playoff spot.
00:23Talk about individual awards going on here because Kucherov finally won the MVP.
00:28The hard trophy there, so we'll see.
00:29A lot of talk in hockey. It's going to be a fun finish.
00:32A lot of good stuff here, George.
00:33But let's take a look at some of these divisions in hockey
00:35because it still seems that two could be up for grabs in the predictive markets.
00:39I'm seeing the Pacific Division winner here, the Anaheim Ducks,
00:42currently trading at a 60% chance to win the division.
00:45The Edmonton Oilers, a dog price of 41%.
00:48Any looks between Anaheim and maybe the underdog right now, Oilers?
00:54The underdog.
00:56That doesn't make any sense, right?
00:58Icon and McDavid.
00:59I know Dreisaitl's out here.
01:01The Oilers are doing it again, though, right?
01:03They had problems most of the season, right?
01:05Goaltending, defense, whatever it might be.
01:07But they turn it on when it matters most.
01:09And now is when it matters most.
01:11They're winning games.
01:12Yeah, okay, they beat a Patsy yesterday.
01:14Fine.
01:14They still won the game here.
01:16Yeah, I'm going to like the Oilers again.
01:17I just wonder, Donnie, if they're just going to do this again where we don't like them
01:20because of their goaltending.
01:22But they've been to two straight Stanley Cup finals.
01:24All right, so I'm going to go with them here to win the division.
01:26But Anaheim is another great story.
01:29All right, a team that we were hoping might make the wild card, make some noise here,
01:33and they've got a shot at the division, and they're getting in the playoffs.
01:36Crazy.
01:37Most of the divisions, right?
01:39I mean, let's face it, the Central is going to Colorado.
01:42The Metro is going to Carolina.
01:45But the only other one would be the Atlantic here with Tampa Bay and Buffalo.
01:51Everyone else is priced at about $0.99 there to lock it up.
01:55Only $0.66 for Tampa to get it locked up.
01:59Could the Savers theoretically overtake Tampa here before it's all said and done?
02:05Of course they could, all right?
02:06Now is when you do look down the schedules, right?
02:08Tampa does have a game in hand, which is why technically they're in first place
02:12and Buffalo's in second place there.
02:14But they can certainly catch them there.
02:15Buffalo may be the best story of the year.
02:18We sort of left this team for debt around American Thanksgiving, right?
02:21Then also Lenny Ruff takes over.
02:22This team can't lose anymore.
02:24And they've got Tate Thompson.
02:26You've got Alex Tuck.
02:27Nice players, right?
02:28Tommy Thompson's a good player.
02:29But there's no superstars here, right?
02:31I mean, there's no Sidney Crosby's.
02:32There's no Nathan McKinnons.
02:34There's not.
02:34But yet they're playing so well here.
02:36So, yeah, I'm on board with that Buffalo could cast.
02:39Do I think they will?
02:40No.
02:40I think Tempe will hold them off, mainly because of the guy you and I were talking about,
02:45Vasilevsky.
02:45I just don't trust.
02:48As far as what Buffalo's going to do in the playoffs,
02:50I just don't trust Uka Pekka Lukonen, my favorite name in the NHL,
02:54and Alex Line, the goaltending.
02:56I'm going to need to see them, I guess, win games for it, win playoff series for me
02:59before I trust them.
03:00And from what we hear, Buffalo's going to rotate in the playoffs as well,
03:03between Uka Pekka Lukonen and Alex Line.
03:06By the way, Buffalo, George, was trading at 56.8% as the favorite on March 24th,
03:11but since being overtaken here by the Tampa Bay Lightning,
03:14who are currently trading at a 69% chance to win the Atlantic Division.
03:17But let's talk some trophies and some awards.
03:20The Art Ross Trophy, the best player in the NHL,
03:23Connor McDavid, currently trading at a 48% chance to win this award.
03:27Kuchar off at 39%, and then Nathan McKinning at 14%.
03:31Is it Connor McDavid's award to run away with this, George?
03:35I don't think it's his award to run away with.
03:37Now, if any of us are starting a team today,
03:41most of us are probably taking Connor McDavid, right?
03:43And he's still doing it, even with dry style out here.
03:46He's the best player in the NHL, all right?
03:48McKinnon, don't get me wrong, McKinnon's great.
03:50I mean, they're all fantastic, great players.
03:52You'd love to have them.
03:53But I think McDavid still is the best player.
03:55I do think they get a little bored here,
03:58voting for the same guy over and over and over again.
04:01And so I think Nathan McKinnon was this winner two months ago,
04:05maybe even a month ago, that he was the guy they were going to pick here.
04:08Then I think we get a little bored with that narrative.
04:09He's still putting up the same amount of numbers, right?
04:11He's got to score his 50th goal, and he's still going to make great scenes.
04:14I think McKinnon still has a shot,
04:15but the buzz doesn't seem to be with him anymore,
04:17where he's lost that momentum here.
04:19I think if I'm voting for this year, I think I'm going to Kucherov.
04:23I like what he's done there for Tampa Bay,
04:25but you can make an argument for and in some ways against each one of these players.
04:30Yeah, recently McDavid's, you know, up nearly 35% here over the last week or so.
04:37So it does seem to fluctuate, George.
04:38And the best part about the predicted markets is we don't need these guys
04:42to actually win the Art Rose Trophy.
04:44We just need to buy him at a low enough price, like a McKinnon,
04:48where if he can go a stretch here where, you know,
04:51the points and the goals are coming, we've got ourselves a shot to profit here.
04:55But what about the goalie?
04:57Who is it?
04:58Who's the best Nia Trophy winner here?
05:00Who's the best goalie in the National Hockey League?
05:03This one's a little tougher because I think it's only between two guys, by the way,
05:07Vasilevsky and Sorokin.
05:11Sorokin's had the better year.
05:12I mean, you look at all the analytic numbers, the course-y numbers.
05:16The Islanders are a terrible defensive team.
05:18All right, they're ranked 27th in the NHL.
05:20All right, it means they're bad on defense.
05:22They're letting up A opportunities and Sorokin's bailing them out here.
05:24So I think Sorokin's had the better year.
05:26His numbers are fantastic.
05:28But what if they don't make the playoffs?
05:30And the Islanders right now, they're in but barely in.
05:33All right, they play Philadelphia tonight, a huge game for both teams.
05:36They play Carolina tomorrow.
05:38So now they lose both games.
05:39They're pretty much done.
05:40They're toast.
05:42But what if they get in here?
05:43If they get in, I think it's Sorokin.
05:44I don't think it's an argument here.
05:45If they don't get in, select the MVP in all sports.
05:48Can you vote for someone for MVP if they don't make the playoffs?
05:51And I don't know if we can here.
05:53So that's my argument here.
05:54I'm going to go Sorokin right now here.
05:56But this sort of goes with the, you know, that Celebrini for MVP as well here.
06:00If San Jose doesn't make the playoffs, I probably can't put him in.
06:03But if he does, maybe I can.
06:04You know, that argument there.
06:06So if the Islanders make the playoffs, I think it's Sorokin.
06:07I think it's Sorokin kind of easily.
06:09But if they don't, I think it's Vasilevsky.
06:12Usually a correlation in this market, too.
06:14The Art Ross Trophy, who's going to have the most points in the NHL?
06:16Conor McDavid, the favorite, trading at 48%.
06:18We look at the Hart Trophy, which means the MVP.
06:20It's Nathan McKinnon trading at a 45% chance, followed by Kucherov, Celebrini, and then only
06:268% here, George, for Conor McDavid.
06:28How about that?
06:30Yeah, I think that makes somewhat sense here.
06:33Kucherov, in my mind, should once again get this.
06:35All right?
06:35But I think there's a bias against him.
06:38And I think a lot of it comes down to, remember what he did in the All-Star game a
06:41few years
06:41back?
06:41He's lollygagging around, ticking everybody off.
06:44And you can't tell me, by the way, that they don't, you know, the writers don't remember
06:49that.
06:49In all sports, by the way, they don't vote because they don't like you.
06:51And I don't think they like Kucherov.
06:53Now, what I said about Celebrini also applies here.
06:56Guys, the San Jose Sharks have 228 goals.
06:58Celebrini's been in on like 48% of them.
07:01Think about that.
07:02Where would this team be without him?
07:04Where would they be?
07:04Nowhere.
07:05Nowhere.
07:05But can you vote for them for MVP if they don't make the playoffs?
07:09And right now, they're tied with the Kings and the Nashville Predators for the last spot
07:13there.
07:13They do have a game in hand again there.
07:15Once again, technically, they're in the playoffs right now.
07:16But if they don't make it, you can't, in my mind, you can't be MVP if he doesn't make
07:20the playoffs.
07:21All right?
07:21I understand you were important to the team, but you didn't get anywhere.
07:23You know?
07:24So I think they need to get in to have that, really, that argument for him.
07:27But once again, I think it's Kucherov over all these guys, but I don't think they like
07:30him.
07:31I think Celebrini's got all the momentum right now.
07:33Just get in to the playoffs.
07:33He wins.
07:34Great.
07:35Talking with George Kersler, the NHL act.
07:37He'll be focused on his Yankees.
07:38And if Aaron Judge hits a home run today, it's trading at 31%.
07:41$100 investment stays back $3.23.
07:44George, thanks for joining us.
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