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Malaysia is in the grip of a heatwave and experts are warning a strong El Niño could soon follow. Are we ready for what’s coming? On this episode of #ConsiderThis Melisa Idris speaks with climatologist Professor Emeritus Dr Fredolin Tangang, Professor of Climatology and Climate Change at UKM & Fellow of the Academy of Sciences Malaysia, Professor at Universiti Brunei Darussalam and Former Vice-Chair of the IPCC Working Group.
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00:10hello and good evening i'm melissa idris welcome to consider this this is the show where we want
00:16you to consider and then we consider what you know of the news of the day malaysia is in the
00:20grip of
00:21a heat wave with dry weather and low rainfall expected to continue into the coming months
00:27this according to met malaysia which says that these conditions are typical of the final phase
00:33of the northeast monsoon but they're also raising broader concerns because is the heat just part of a
00:42seasonal pattern or is it a sign of a more lasting change in our climate and if so should how
00:50should
00:51malaysia prepare for rising temperatures in the future joining me now is professor emeritus dr
00:57fredlin tenggang who is emeritus professor of climatology and climate change at ukm he's also
01:02a fellow of the academy of sciences malaysia and is currently serving at the university of brunei
01:08darossalam prof fredlin is also the former vice chair of the working group one of the intergovernmental
01:16panel for on climate change better known as the ipcc which is the united nations body for assessing the
01:24science behind climate change prof it's good to have you back on the show with me today so
01:29we're experiencing this prolonged period of dry and hot conditions i'm just wondering how unusual
01:36is this for malaysia is this quite seasonal um and how would you describe what's happening to our
01:42climate system currently uh hi there melissa thank you for having me again in this program consider it
01:50uh yeah we need to consider this uh kind of uh extreme climatic condition like prolonged uh you
01:59know uh hot weather condition that we had uh it's around it was around not like three weeks uh you
02:06know
02:07and everybody's complaining you know so but i think we need to understand this because uh this is not going
02:13to be the first one and the last one and and uh you know because of uh climate change
02:19we may see this you know becoming more frequent in the future becoming more intense uh you know but
02:26once i think we need to understand a little bit what drive is uh you know um i said three
02:34weeks uh you know
02:34and during that at the beginning of the three week we are actually almost at the end of uh um
02:43uh northeast monsoon season and uh you know but now uh you know we are actually already uh entered into
02:52april uh i think it was been declared by the met malaysia that the northeast monsoon has uh ended uh
03:00but the story was like what happened during the last three weeks uh you know during the prolonged heat that
03:07we have uh so um
03:10um there was one there was one there was one this particular phenomenon uh which is uh part of the
03:16natural uh climate uh variability mode of climate variability uh uh some kind of stubborn moving from
03:25in ocean uh to the pacific ocean uh crossing our region and while it crossing uh it's basically
03:34we we scientists we actually describe the characteristic of this moment in in the so-called uh different
03:42different faces uh eight faces all together actually so uh while these faces moving you know malaysia
03:52indonesia you can experience uh you know enhanced rainfall uh but it's a time you know uh it can also
04:00experience uh suppress uh suppress uh lack of rainfall and so-called suppressed conviction where you know
04:07you can think of high pressure systems sit in our region and typically typically uh it it sit there for
04:14maybe five to ten days while it's moving from west to east crossing our region but this time three weeks
04:21it is i would say a little bit unusual so um when whenever you have this suppressed conviction meaning
04:29it suppresses the the uh formation of cloud and whenever you have uh you know lack of cloud or no
04:37cloud
04:38meaning snow rainfall and you know that will create the condition uh for maximum uh penetration of solar
04:46radiation and so happen during march 20th year we have this equinox and equinox means you know this
04:54this is a condition where the the sun actually uh above the equator you know that add add to the
05:02the uh you know the the the the the rather miserable condition that we have uh you know and
05:11you know if you have only five days you don't really feel it that much but if you have three
05:15weeks
05:15this will build up you know and without read you don't have cooling you know evaporative cooling uh
05:25processes uh to to you know transport the heat the sensible heat that you can fill into
05:31the so-called latent heat uh you know so and so it it built up so this is this is
05:38what we feel and
05:39you know you know i was dead during hariraya and and he was like miserable uh so uh yes that's
05:47what
05:47happened actually right so that there was a confluence of factors that caused this extreme uh condition
05:54of of heat of heat of heat waves and i do wonder prof whether as a country um whether we
06:01recognize
06:03and prepare for um these phenomena of of heat waves the way we do uh floods and storms you know
06:11we give
06:11storms names we recognize that there is a an element of natural disaster but do we recognize heat waves
06:20the same way do we um prepare and are alert for uh these types of phenomena the same way as
06:27we do other
06:29other weather phenomenons well i i feel like uh you know we are not recognizing this as much as like
06:37you know uh the flood that we tend to experience during uh you know the northeast moon soon season uh
06:46late
06:47uh november december and so it's january uh so when come to a wave is is you know something that
06:56we don't
06:57really pay that much attention but our our response is almost like uh reactive rather than proactive
07:05uh and and uh uh easy enough for us to to experience this as i said because the moment that
07:14we have
07:15uh no rainfall for a long time and we have uh you know maximum penetration of of uh solar radiation
07:24uh and and there are you know climate change contribute to this of course but there are natural
07:31phenomenon uh climate natural you know mode of variation like mgo that i mentioned as well as el nino
07:38uh you know uh you know it is uh in the forecast now that elena will be returning uh and
07:47by uh in the
07:49coming three or four months by once we enter into the the uh you know uh southwest monsoon season uh
07:57and i have
07:58look at the you know um current data and also the forecast from uh the uh uh climate critical center
08:08in
08:08the in the u.s uh in my expert opinion this is going to be a very strong you know
08:14if if if not the uh
08:16extremely like what we had in 2015 2016 and so on and you know um you mentioned about northeast monsoon
08:25uh we
08:26are not prepared for this but perhaps uh we also need to you know give that kind of that kind
08:34of
08:34recognition to uh phenomenon like el nino mgo and you know we have to pay attention to the focus the
08:41science uh you know and be prepared because uh you know while flood is is uh you know recognized as
08:50a
08:50natural disaster that can bring you know uh even can kill people right but uh you know when you have
08:59heat wave it can kill people as well when you have a forest fires uh comes with it you have
09:05haze you
09:06have all kind of you know um health problem so this is something that i think natural disaster like
09:15is will becoming more intense more frequent as uh we have uh you know global temperature uh you know
09:23keep rising and and you know 2024 is the harvest uh ever recorded year followed by 2023 and 2025 but
09:33if eleno comes this year 2006 probably 2026 might be the you know candidate for for the hottest
09:44uh and everybody put it here right prof can i ask you so you said that you are anticipating very
09:50strong
09:51el nino this year what what does that mean um and how can malaysia i guess prepare if we were
09:58to take
09:59this as seriously as we do floods and storms and we are not reactive but more proactive what is it
10:05that we
10:05need to uh expect and prepare for well i mean we we the impact that usually comes uh with uh
10:14you know
10:14eleno induced uh anomaly condition that we have uh in in this uh region well not just malaysia we have
10:22to
10:22also look at what will happen in indonesia because uh whenever we have eleno uh we tend to have
10:30uh haze transboundary is its own but not only that uh we may have heat wave as well perhaps as
10:37as bad as
10:38what we experience but uh mco is although you know we had three weeks but typically you know a week
10:47or 10
10:47days uh this kind of phenomenon uh three weeks is a bit longer but eleno is a long you know
10:56long period of
10:57uh phenomenon you know when it start in june or july it will carry on until the end of the
11:04year and then
11:05again you know uh going into the next uh couple of of months in the following year uh and so
11:15so
11:16another one we can suffer more as compared to what we had uh you know in the last three weeks
11:22so so
11:23uh we need to be prepared especially especially when comes to water resources uh it can affect us
11:30more i would say because you know what happened meteorologically climateology what happened is that
11:37when we have this eleno uh you know we do have high pressure as well same thing like like uh
11:46you know
11:47the ngo that i described so when we have high pressure actually the wind tend to diverge from
11:53the circulation tend to by diverge from origin bringing all the moisture into the uh pacific ocean
12:00and as well as indian ocean leaving our region lack of moisture lack of uh cloud lack of rainfall
12:08uh you know increase of uh solar radiation uh and also dry and that will provide favorable condition for
12:19forest fire system so we have we experienced this before in the past uh many many elinos and and i
12:27think
12:28we we need to you know uh pay attention to this although to some extent from my experience uh the
12:35authority actually pay attention to this but i'm not really sure whether this has already been implemented
12:40implemented now given the fact that we are you know if if it's if the forecast is correct eleno will
12:46begin
12:47sometime june right prof thank you so much for sharing some of your insights with us i really appreciate
12:54your time uh professor america's doctor fred lintanggang there we're going to take a quick break on
12:59consider this we'll be back with more on this topic so stay tuned
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