00:00Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has called on President Trump to commit to ending
00:04the war in Iran. Albanese told the national broadcaster ABC that he wants greater certainty
00:09over Trump's objectives in Iran along with the recognition of the economic damage it's causing
00:14to the global economy. Trump has criticised allies including Australia for failing to help secure
00:20the Strait of Hormuz. And maybe in particular that country, you know, we were the longest bond,
00:27the longest ally. Australia too. Australia was not great. The Australian National University surveyed
00:36over 20,000 Australians and found that most think the nation will face multiple security shocks
00:41within the next five years and is underprepared for what's to come. Let's get more on the country's
00:46sentiment on geopolitical tensions and risks. Joining us now is Rory Metcalfe, who's the head of the ANU
00:51National Security College. Rory, great to have you with us. And I wanted to go back to the conversation
00:55with the Prime Minister and some of the ire that Australia's leadership has attracted from the
01:00Trump administration for not pitching in, if you will, with this war. Has the alliance, the relationship
01:07between Australia and the US changed? And does that benefit or disadvantage Australia's security
01:13position in a situation like this? Well, look, I think broadly the Australian government has been
01:19very pragmatic about the alliance in the last year or two, particularly under this Trump administration.
01:26And to set the scene a little more on that, of course, the Prime Minister of Australia had a very
01:30successful visit to the United States last year, where he secured ongoing support for the AUKUS
01:36submarine cooperation and offered a big deal on critical minerals. So I think the tensions in the
01:44relationship over the Iran conflict have to be put in that perspective. Having said that, of course, there is
01:51clearly a lot of unhappiness in the Australian community, the Australian population, about the impact that this war is
01:59having. And that's beginning to now translate into foreign and security policy. So our Prime Minister is navigating this very
02:07carefully. I don't see at the moment, any critical damage to the Australia US relationship as a result of this
02:13particular conflict. But it does reinforce a
02:16growing sentiment in the community about the the volatility and the behaviour of this administration.
02:24If you talk about preparedness for these sort of external shocks, obviously, we've been through COVID. But if you take
02:32a look at the risks for
02:32Australia here, it is not just energy, it's a flow on effects through to fertiliser to food security on top
02:38of energy
02:38security as well. What more could be done from a policy perspective?
02:43Well, I think the again, going to the the public opinion first, and then coming back to policy, if that's
02:49OK, the work that we've been
02:51doing to try to map Australian public opinion has showed, I think, really quite a strikingly high level of concern
02:59about national
03:00under preparedness across all of the resilience and security issues. And in fact, ironically, getting ready for the next
03:09pandemic is one of the ones where people are a little bit more comfortable because we've been through that before.
03:13But when it comes to
03:14energy, critical infrastructure, potential cyber attacks, you know, violent unrest, the impacts of war, there are high levels of
03:24concern. There's an argument that we've really had a window over the last 10 to 20 years to be more
03:30prepared for
03:30shocks like these, whether it was through increasing fuel stockpiles, whether it was through converting the fleets of
03:39metropolitan trucking that basically carry all the goods to our supermarkets to a fuel other than diesel, whether that's LNG
03:48or whether it's
03:48electrification. There are lots of things that haven't been done in the context of the Australian Federation. And
03:56there's now, I think, a growing impetus for a united national effort, federal government, states, territories, the private sector. But
04:04of
04:05course, it is difficult to do this after a crisis has commenced.
04:17Rory, when you take a look at sort of public opinion, is that do you think there is a sense
04:22that the Australian public is
04:24still reeling from the disruptions from the pandemic? Because it feels like at the moment, when you take a look
04:31at the
04:31dynamic with the energy and oil situation, it's less of a supply shock and more of a demand shock that
04:37we're seeing.
04:39Yeah, look, I think, again, there's a bigger picture of public anxiety. So the work that we did, surveying 20
04:45,000
04:45people, looking at about 15 different security risks and potential shocks, and then getting a sense of how the
04:54population see those as likely or as consequential, and how prepared are we? And should the government be saying or
05:02doing more about
05:02these things? It's a much bigger array of risk. It is supply shocks. It's infrastructure and resilience. So we've encountered
05:13a lot of concern about the way that remote communities in Australia often have only, if you like, a single
05:18point of failure for their infrastructure. And also a sense that, you know, a recognition that conflict and crises overseas
05:27now have an immediate impact in Australia, whether it's in terms of energy and the economy, or whether it's in
05:32terms of energy and the economy, or whether it's in terms of the
05:32in terms of social unrest and political violence. You know, the context of this is also, of course, the terrorist
05:38attack at Bondi in Sydney last December. And so I think security is now on the minds of the Australian
05:46population. They want a clearer narrative from government about a whole of nation effort to address these issues. And this
05:53isn't going to begin or end with the consequences of this Iran conflict.
05:58I think the pandemic sure heightened that sense of anxiety, but there are much deeper currents, including demographically and economically.
06:09Rory, what about the anxiety around issues with China as well? And have the challenges with the Trump administration perhaps
06:19changed the calculation for the administration on how to move forward when it comes to these global partnerships?
06:27Rory, also the survey work we did was very carefully not specific about naming countries, you know, we were asking
06:34the population, what do you value, what do you want to protect, whether it's your democratic institutions, or whether it's
06:40your safe and peaceful communities, or whether it's your economic prosperity and so forth.
06:44Rory, but if you read between the lines of a lot of the data that we've gathered, of course, there's
06:49anxiety about great powers and there's anxiety about potential coercion or potential military threats.
06:56So China is on the minds of the Australian population. We had last year, of course, the circumnavigation of this
07:03country by a Chinese Navy task group.
07:05We've had a lot of attention over the past 10 years to foreign interference and cyber intrusions and other risks.
07:13But at the same time, there's a recognition, I think, and this is borne out in our data as well,
07:20that China is not the only issue here.
07:22There's consciousness of this consciousness of the impact of the Ukraine war and Russia's breach of the rules based order.
07:28There's also consciousness of the way the Trump administration has become such a volatile ally.
07:35And I think there's a deeper sense that the centre, if you like, the political centre in our system needs
07:43to hold, but is showing a lot of fraying around the edges, concern about political polarisation, disinformation, a lot of
07:51the shocks and the risks that we've seen in America and Europe and elsewhere are beginning to hit home in
07:57Australia.
07:58This makes it incredibly difficult for government because I think if we have security and foreign policies that are only
08:04about the China challenge, that's not going to be sufficient.
08:08And instead, I think what the data suggests is a need for a greater national narrative about protecting the good
08:15things about Australian stability and democracy against any of the whole range of shocks, including conflict in our region.
08:26Rory, always great to chat with you, Rory Medcalf, who's the head of the National Security College at ANU.
08:31We have more on Australia Ahead every Tuesday at 11.40am if you're watching in Sydney, 8.40am if you're
08:37catching us out of Hong Kong.
08:38You can also delve into the Bloomberg Australia podcast, which looks into the biggest stories shaping the country's role in
08:44global business.
08:44You can find that on Apple or Spotify. This is Bloomberg.
08:48You can leave.
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