00:00We would love for there to be an Iran that's not governed by radical Shia clerics.
00:03We would love to see this regime be replaced.
00:05The objective of this mission is to make sure they don't have these weapons that can threaten us and our
00:09allies in the region.
00:10That's why we're doing what we're doing now.
00:11And while we would love to see a new regime, the bottom line is no matter who governs that country
00:16a year from now,
00:16they're not going to have these ballistic missiles and they're not going to have these drones to threaten us.
00:23U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio there outlining the administration's reasons for attacking Iran.
00:28Joining us now from Maryland is bringing Mona Yacoubian, director and senior advisor of the Middle East program at the
00:35CSIS.
00:36Mona, it's great to have you on the program.
00:38You just heard from Marco Rubio there on really what the rationale was for the U.S. and Israel to
00:42strike Iran.
00:44Does that seem justified in your eyes?
00:46I think there's still a very disturbing lack of clarity as to the rationale.
00:51I mean, we've heard numerous reasons raised from Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities to addressing the leadership in Iran,
01:01etc.
01:02None of it really seems to make sense in terms of available intelligence reporting, none of which points to an
01:10imminent threat.
01:11And therefore, this really looks more to have been a war of choice rather than a war of necessity.
01:17And we are seeing play out now just entering the fourth day of this conflict, the multiple downside risks from
01:26energy market hits to U.S.
01:30soldiers being killed in combat, to security risks and American embassies being targeted, to multiple countries now becoming embroiled in
01:41this conflict.
01:41We are truly watching a region-wide conflagration unfold before our eyes.
01:50So, Mona, among the many risks, what do you think is most pertinent at the moment?
01:54I know that's almost an impossible question to isolate that, but where do I need to be looking?
02:00Well, I think the energy markets are in particular significant given this part of the world's crucial role in both
02:08oil and gas markets.
02:10And your analyst that was on before me was laying down these historic jumps in gas prices.
02:16I think the problem is we don't know the duration of this conflict, obviously.
02:22And frankly, it's very hard to imagine that this is going to be a replay of the 12-day war
02:29that we saw this past June.
02:31This is far more complex.
02:33It involves far many more countries.
02:36And, of course, with the assassination of the supreme leader and questions about who's even in charge in Iran and
02:43what's Iran's risk tolerance.
02:45I would argue Iran's risk tolerance is very high because they are facing existential threats.
02:52And so if we are watching something that could last for weeks and maybe even months, that is going to
02:59have enormous reverberations across global energy and shipping markets.
03:04And, of course, we also have to look at lives that are at risk across the region.
03:12I mean, Mona, I want to pick up on that.
03:14This now involves many other parties.
03:17Might be a dumb question.
03:18I don't know.
03:19I don't have the answer.
03:19Why is Iran bombing its neighbors?
03:22I get why they would target places with U.S. bases.
03:27But Dubai, for example, and how does that then affect those regional powers in their response to Iran?
03:34I mean, I think there are two ways to look at it.
03:36You're absolutely right, David.
03:37I mean, on the face of it, they've managed to galvanize these Gulf countries, frankly, against Iran.
03:42Iran is now completely alone.
03:45These were countries that were advocating against conflict with Iran.
03:50And so, in a way, it does look sort of foolhardy and hard to understand.
03:56On the other hand, if for Iran the stakes are existential, then at this point, I think they are making
04:05a gamble that they are going to race up the escalation ladder and impose higher costs and sort of, in
04:14a way, invite a prolonged conflict.
04:17And that's exactly what they're doing, perhaps with the calculation that ultimately, especially these energy-producing Gulf countries are going
04:28to really push hard on the United States to find an off-ramp, to de-escalate this conflict because of
04:35the disruption that it is causing.
04:38So, in a way, Iran is taking a sort of an asymmetric approach to this.
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