00:00Now let's get insights from our panel of guests as we discuss the ripple effects of the Iran war
00:04focusing on India. Nisha Biswal is a former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for South
00:10and Central Asian Affairs. And Saeed Abaruddin, India's former permanent representative to the
00:15United Nations. Nisha, good to have you with us. Let's start with your thoughts on how this is
00:20impacting the South Asian nations. Well, clearly, Haslinda, the South Asian
00:26nations are feeling the brunt of this. Across South Asia, there's an enormous dependency on energy
00:34from the Persian Gulf. Bangladesh receives most of its LNG from Qatar. India, very heavily dependent
00:46on Persian Gulf crude as well as LNG, LPG as well. So, you know, Pakistan, Nepal, Sri Lanka,
00:56you name it. These countries are all struggling with not only the energy crisis, but there are
01:04second order effects in terms of fertilizers, LPG as well. And so Asian countries, South Asian
01:13countries in particular, are dealing with a energy shock of magnitude that they have not experienced
01:21previously. And Saeed, do you think the Iran war has fundamentally changed the strategic considerations
01:28of India when it comes to West Asia, given its dependence on energy and also its, I guess,
01:37its diaspora footprint?
01:42So, India has long straddled divides in West Asia. If you look at it, it has had ties with Israel,
01:55deepened ties with Israel, while continuing to traditionally support the Palestinian cause.
02:01It's enhanced its ties exponentially with the Gulf, buying trade, technology, investment, while also
02:15maintaining ties with Iran. So these are contradictory necessities that India has navigated in the past.
02:22And each of these ties, of course, do not carry the same weight, which means India has to choose
02:30carefully, but not evenly. And so that approach is already under stress, because the Indian approach
02:41so far has been that it's not on anyone's side. It's on the side of Indian interests. And it's not
02:48in
02:49one camp or the other. So it's caused some stresses in the approach that India has been following in the
02:58past, because it has deep economic interest there. And as Nisha mentioned, the risks have moved beyond
03:07the foreign policy table. They've now become energy risks, inflation shock, and also supply side shock.
03:17So it's moved into the Indian domestic economy. So obviously, it's expanded. And therefore, you can see
03:26divergences in opinion when a calibrated policy is put under stress. Yet, so far, the Indian approach...
03:37There is a red line beyond which India is unable to stay neutral.
03:43Sure. I take that point. Right now, it's been navigating with the, you know, when you navigate
03:51contradictory sides, you'll never be fully satisfactory. Yet, it's managed, it's been able to
04:00engage with Tehran, with the Gulf, with Tel Aviv, with Washington, and try and work out from a difficult
04:09situation. And you're right that the hope is that if dialogue and diplomacy can lead to de-escalation,
04:17it would be able to protect its citizens, keep sea lanes open, and preserve room on all sides to engage.
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