- 2 months ago
This edition of India First analyses major geopolitical developments, including the US President Donald Trump's Diwali call to Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Diwali, which covered India-US trade, terrorism, and energy security.
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00:00So, during Diwali celebrations at the White House, U.S. President Donald Trump spoke of his great conversation, as he put it, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi on trade and not having wars with Pakistan, and how Prime Minister Narendra Modi was a great friend of his over the years.
00:18Prime Minister Narendra Modi's response on social media platform X was crisp, short, and firm.
00:24He wrote, Thank you, President Trump, for your phone call and warm greetings on Diwali. On this festival of light, may our two great democracies continue to illuminate the world with hope and stand together, stand united against terrorism in all its forms.
00:42The sting, very clearly, is in the tale.
00:46It was meant to be a warm Diwali greeting from Washington to New Delhi.
00:57But U.S. President Donald Trump's phone call to Prime Minister Modi has sparked more controversy than celebration.
01:05The call was not only about exchanging Diwali greetings for Prime Minister Modi.
01:09Modi used the Diwali moment to subtly remind Trump what matters, standing united against terrorism.
01:18A pointed message considering Trump's recent outreach to Pakistan's military top brass.
01:23Prime Minister Modi said, India stands with the U.S. in fighting all forms of terror.
01:28Earlier, Trump lit the ceremonial Diwali lamp at the White House as Indian origin leaders and business figures applauded,
01:37including Indian envoy, Vinay Kwartra, FBI chief Kash Patel and Hindu U.S. intel chief Tulsi Gabbitt.
01:45But what followed did not sit well in India.
01:49U.S. President once again claimed credit for India-Pakistan truce, despite numerous Indian denials.
01:55We did talk a little while ago about let's have no wars with Pakistan.
02:02And I think the fact that trade was involved, I was able to talk about that.
02:07And we have no war with Pakistan and India.
02:09And that was a very, very good thing.
02:11But he's a great person.
02:14India has time and again said that it agreed for ceasefire only after Pakistan commanders pleaded with Indian forces to stop Operation Sundor.
02:23Trump, however, made a big climb down on India buying oil from Russia.
02:33Going back on his earlier remark that India will completely stop buying Russian oil,
02:38Trump claimed Modi has told him that India will not buy much Russian oil.
02:42India will not be buying oil from Russia.
02:49They've already de-escalated and they've more or less stopped their pulling back.
02:55They bought about 38 percent of the oil and they won't be doing it anymore.
03:00He's not going to buy much oil from Russia.
03:03He wants to see that war end as much as I do.
03:05He wants to see the war end with Russia and Ukraine.
03:08And as you know, they're not going to be buying too much oil.
03:11So they've cut it way back and they're continuing to cut it way back.
03:16Meanwhile, the opposition led by Congress jumped in, accusing Prime Minister Modi of hiding facts.
03:22But the facts speak for themselves.
03:24It is Trump making claims, not Modi confirming them.
03:27The Prime Minister is in the United States.
03:57The cabinet minister and the commerce minister will have to explain to the people of the country
04:00that what are the give and takes that have happened and how is it benefiting India
04:04and is US oil going to be a lot more beneficial to us to buy us compared to the Russian oil
04:10is something for the government of India to tell us.
04:12Have we buckled under or have we maintained our own and continue to have a dialogue on our terms and conditions?
04:19So while Trump lights lamps and drops sound bites, Modi keeps it clear.
04:24India stands for peace but won't bow to pressure.
04:30Bureau Report, India Today.
04:36So there are two sets of issues here. Trade and terror.
04:40India-US trade and Pakistan state-sponsored radical Islamist terror and of course the issue of Russian oil.
04:48Is there a shift, even if it's a subtle shift, in the US stance?
04:52Joining me on India first is Ambassador Meera Shankar, India's former ambassador to the United States of America.
04:59Also with me is Daniel Bloch, senior editor of Foreign Affairs.
05:03Seema Sirohi is a columnist and author of Friends with Benefits, the India-US story.
05:08Joins us from Washington, D.C.
05:10Anand Ranganathan is an author and analyst.
05:12Siddharth Zarabi is group editor, Business Today.
05:15I first want to cut across to Ambassador Meera Shankar.
05:19Ambassador, help us understand Donald Trump's Diwali message and Prime Minister Narendra Modi's response.
05:26Do they appear to be on the same page or at least getting there, if not there already on trade and Pakistan terror?
05:33I would say that the tone of the messages exchanged is certainly cause for a little light at the end of the tunnel.
05:45You see some light at the end of the tunnel because the harsh rhetoric from the Trump administration in its early days has been toned down.
06:00And there have been efforts to reach out to the Indian government.
06:03From the Indian government side, negotiations have resumed, trade talks have resumed.
06:13And the last message, not this one, the last message that Prime Minister Modi sent, talked of good progress in the trade talks.
06:25And the fact that the two leaders will monitor and review what is happening there.
06:33So, I would say that the scenario appears more optimistic and that there has been a conscious effort to try to reduce or moderate the tensions which had developed in the relationship.
06:55Whether this will actually lead to a trade deal being made.
07:03Being signed in the near future is something we have to wait and watch because there have been many twists and turns in this tale.
07:13Oh, absolutely.
07:14And President Trump appears to be linking trade both to Russian oil and peace with Pakistan.
07:20Do you get that impression?
07:22In both, does he appear to be at least on the face of it, barking up the wrong tree?
07:28Well, Russian oil and trade, I think the US has been linking from the time that it imposed 25% extra tariffs on India on account of India's Russian oil purchases.
07:44And, of course, Trump has claimed that India has, or Prime Minister Modi has assured him that we will not be buying Russian oil.
07:55But now he has, you know, in the face of the statement made by the Indian government, which said that India looks to diversify its sources of trade.
08:06That President Trump has moderated his statement to say India will not be buying much oil from Russia.
08:16So, I suppose that what they're really looking at is, A, purchasing more from the United States by way of energy.
08:30And to some extent, the oil purchases by Indian PSUs from Russia have already come down,
08:38though private sector in India is still buying at a fairly robust pace.
08:43So, I suppose the Indian preference is to actually, as we've said, diversify sources of trade.
08:53So, buy more energy from the United States.
08:56The question is, can the US also give us guaranteed supplies?
09:02You know, because they've been limiting supplies off and on.
09:05And also, would it be competitive, you know, in terms of price and our commercial bottom line?
09:16I think these are two things.
09:18And linking trade and peace with Pakistan?
09:21I don't think that's a direct linkage.
09:23He always refers to it in terms of his having talked to Prime Minister Modi at the time of the cross-border conflict, you know, after Operation Sindur,
09:37and that he raised trade issues and that both countries said, we want to trade.
09:42But this was denied by the Indian side that any such conversation had taken place.
09:51And so, this is an issue on which I think the two sides seem to have divergent views.
09:58And where President Trump obviously has a bee in his bonnet because it keeps recurring.
10:05It's a theme which keeps recurring.
10:07In each of his conversations, he reiterates this.
10:11But I don't think that there, there is a direct linkage.
10:15Okay.
10:16And what explains this change in US stance, according to you, within a week?
10:20So, on the 15th of October, President Trump claimed Prime Minister Narendra Modi assured him India will not be buying oil from Russia.
10:28Today, he says India is not going to buy much oil from Russia.
10:32So, is this, you know, that reassurance or has he accepted the fact that India will continue to buy oil wherever it's competitive,
10:41wherever India gets discounts and will not be bullied into submission to stop buying Russian oil?
10:47I think that probably we will try to find some kind of buyer media, as I said, making more purchases from the US.
10:57And perhaps some of our purchases of Russian oil may come down.
11:03But certainly, we are not going to allow any other country to dictate from where we will buy oil.
11:10Okay.
11:11Seema Surohi, is this a change in the US stance?
11:15Has US realized India cannot be browbeaten into stopping, you know, the procurement of Russian oil?
11:22Well, in not such stark terms, but what I think is happening is Americans, including President Trump and his cabinet members, are realizing that they can't do it alone.
11:39The latest move from China, you know, putting export controls on really severe export controls on rare earths has really shaken them up.
11:55They didn't have a strategy.
11:56They didn't expect it.
11:57So suddenly, there was a change in tone by the Treasury Secretary first, that, oh, it's the world against China, and we need our partners and allies to help.
12:11So I think there is that going on.
12:14And in terms of India, US in particular, the fact that India has pretty much stuck to its stand for all these months, I think, has conveyed its own message, I would say.
12:32So that's happening.
12:34Then the Diwali event at the White House, as you might have seen, the Indian-American members of President Trump's cabinet, they came under some very severe attack for even just wishing everybody a happy Diwali.
12:57And in light of that, I saw that event as important and an important message, whether the crowd in MAGA takes it that way or not.
13:11I think it was important from the White House's point of view and from the US point of view to say, to show that President Trump celebrated Diwali.
13:22So I think, all in all, I would agree with Ambassador Shankar that things are moving in the right direction.
13:31There will be a lot of, you know, glitches along the way.
13:35But overall, things are positive.
13:39Okay, Anand Ranganathan, this would indicate India stood firm, the United States tried to bully India, browbeat India.
13:46All the, you know, harsh words that were used by the MAGA ecosystem, India didn't relent.
13:54And now it appears, it may be subtle, but the US has or is relenting.
13:59Good evening, Gaurav, and good evening to my fellow panelists.
14:04Look, Ambassador Meeraji talked of light at the end of the tunnel.
14:08Well, to be honest, it depends who's seeing it.
14:12If Trump is seeing it, then I'm afraid that light is coming from the train called Modi that's going to run him over.
14:19Because the fact is, Trump has been foxed by the carrot and stick strategy of Modi.
14:24The bully is not able to comprehend why, when the EU and most of Latin America has succumbed to his bullying, Modi is standing up to him.
14:33Modi's foreign policy, Gaurav, his maneuvers in the last couple of months have been spectacular, to say the least.
14:39He is matching Trump transaction for transaction.
14:42He has, in continuing to buy Russian oil, not only exposed Trump's hypocrisy of imposing extra 25% tariff selectively of India,
14:50even as the EU and the US continue to buy more Russian energy, by going to Beijing and standing with Xi, Modi has shown Trump his place.
14:58And since the time Trump slapped those 25% extra tariffs, we've bought 130 million more barrels of Russian oil.
15:06We are as independent as we've ever been.
15:08We continue to buy as much as 40% of our oil imports from Russia, number two.
15:13But, you know, more than Trump, the problem is the opposition leaders who are using him to get at Modi.
15:18Rahul Gandhi, for example, first their dead economy concurrence, when India is in fact the fastest growing large economy,
15:25posting highest ever forex exports, PMI, GST collection in Sensex, and then Stalin concurring that Indian elites who are profiting from Russian oil.
15:35Not only is this strategy of opening the gates from the inside shameful, this couldn't be further from the truth.
15:39Let me explain very briefly.
15:40Number one, Tamil Nadu's Chennai Petroleum Corporation Limited has been refining 80,000 barrels per day of Russian oil over the past two years,
15:48and then distributing half of it, 40,000 barrels per day, locally inside Tamil Nadu.
15:52Those profiting from this are not elites, but ordinary Tamilians.
15:56Additionally, Tamil Nadu government has imposed upwards of 15% levion fuel that goes into state coffers.
16:01So, who is profiting from Russian oil to the tune of 7,000 crores?
16:05Stalin's government.
16:06Number two, the Indian government has directly earned upwards of $3 billion from Reliance as windfall for exporting refined Russian oil,
16:14some of it to America, in fact.
16:15The people who have profited from this are not elites, but ordinary Indians.
16:19India has saved, Gaurav, just 10 seconds, $26 billion over the past three years by choosing Russian oil over Saudi oil,
16:26not just because of discounted Russian oil, but also because increasing our procurement of it has lowered oil prices in general,
16:32saving us money for the rest of our oil procurement.
16:35Without that, our inflation would have risen cumulatively 1.47% beyond its actual level in those years,
16:41helping the poor and the disadvantaged, not the elite.
16:44This is the situation right now.
16:45So, we are showing the bully his place.
16:48I hope Rahul Gandhi learns his place.
16:50Okay, you know, I'll come to that domestic politics that you raise very effectively in a moment.
16:56Daniel Block, has India displayed amply, not just to the US, but to the world,
17:03that India did not get bullied and refuses to get bullied on Russian oil
17:08and on Trump's repeated claims on ceasefire allegedly brokered?
17:13Because Trump may have had a conversation with Pakistan.
17:15Clearly, there was nothing that stopped India from bombing Pakistan except Pakistan pleading for a ceasefire.
17:24I'd say two things.
17:26Really, I'd say three things.
17:27First, I don't think we should get ahead of ourselves here and assuming we're reaching some sort of resolution.
17:33We're dealing with Donald Trump.
17:34This is a man who changes his mind all the time.
17:38And we've been hearing positive noises of various sorts for months now,
17:41and we still haven't seen a resolution.
17:43So I want to be very cautious and measured at assuming that we're reaching some kind of conclusion
17:49from which we can take away definitive answers.
17:52I would say I'll start with the Pakistan topic, and then I'll move to the Russian oil one.
17:58I think the wider world sees the Pakistan issue a little bit differently from the way it's seen in India.
18:04My sense is that the wider world, not just people in the United States, but also people in Europe,
18:09do think that the United States was involved in brokering some sort of ceasefire there.
18:14Not to the extent that Trump claims.
18:16They don't think he single-handedly ended it.
18:18But they do think that the United States played a diplomatic role in resolving that.
18:23That's what reporting has shown.
18:24And I think that's what Europeans think as well as Americans.
18:27On the Russian oil front, I mean, again, it's really hard for me to know how far or how close
18:33we are to some sort of resolution here because we're dealing with Trump and information that
18:38comes from him.
18:39My best guess is that we are negotiating there to some sort of resolution in which neither side
18:46is going to get what they want, but both sides are going to get an outcome that they can walk away
18:51with, that they're happy with, and that they can portray to their own people as a victory.
18:56So that would look something like India buys less Russian oil than it did before while still
19:02buying Russian oil, which at which point it can say, you know, Modi can say, we stood up to Trump.
19:06We stood up to the United States.
19:08We're still buying Russian oil.
19:09We won't be intimidated by anybody.
19:12And Trump, meanwhile, can say to Americans, they're buying less Russian oil.
19:16Look, they're buying more of our oil.
19:17Look, we, you know, we used our tariffs.
19:19We used our leverage and we got them to change their economic behavior.
19:22And of course, that's how most conflicts end these days, right?
19:25It's rarely a clear-cut victory or defeat for one side.
19:28It's an outcome that both parties can sell as a victory to their own people.
19:33OK, except the fact remains that from saying India is not going to buy any oil from Russia,
19:39he's at least today saying not much oil.
19:43But Siddharth Zaravi, are the two leaders, when they meet on the sidelines of the ASEAN summit,
19:48is there forward movement on the trade deal?
19:53Or, you know, it's been so far and yet, you know, so near and yet so far all along since
19:58the Prime Minister met him in February and then again May, June, when the leaders met again.
20:04Not the leaders, but the delegations met again.
20:06Gaurav, I think it's going to be a very significant meeting, although we are waiting for a final word
20:12and confirmation from New Delhi on that proposed meeting.
20:16Were it to happen, most likely it will.
20:19This would be the first meeting after February this year, if you remember, between the two leaders.
20:26And I think it's going to be very, very significant.
20:28What has changed between that period when our negotiations had also kind of broken off
20:34to now when delegation of Indian officials has returned just this Sunday after a meeting?
20:42I think there is some sense that is building up, although I must caution all our viewers
20:47and say it very clearly that we do not have official word on this.
20:51But it's clear that this 50 percent tariff cannot stay if there has to be any kind of forward movement.
20:59So taking that off, bringing that back to the near the original levels pre the Trump tariffs kicking in
21:08is very clearly something that will enable India to ultimately shake hands.
21:14The contours of some of the news reports that we have seen are a question of detail
21:21and debate. But remember, on Russian oil, we must not forget that we already purchased
21:27between 22 to 23 billion dollars of U.S. crude oil.
21:33And officials have told us that the scope to expand further purchases of U.S. oil
21:39is to the extent of at least 10 to 12 billion dollars more.
21:43So if India were to buy more U.S. crude, it will obviously reduce some other kind of crude.
21:50So perhaps that might answer this question on the tonality and the different use of words.
21:56And finally, it's very important and a coincidence, and some of our panelists here would understand
22:02the importance that this meeting at Kuala Lumpur would take under the ASEAN summit umbrella.
22:09And remember, India signed a trade deal with ASEAN.
22:13We had great hopes from that trade deal when it was signed.
22:16It's proven to be very, very unequal for India.
22:20We have a significant deficit and China has been dumping goods through the ASEAN route into India.
22:26And so I find it of particular interest that if there were to be a forward movement and a shake,
22:34you know, a handshake of sorts around the India-U.S. trade deal happening in Kuala Lumpur,
22:39it would in the long term be very significant for the Indian economy because the earlier deal
22:45at that very same city has proven to be detrimental to Indian interests and Indian companies.
22:52Ambassador Shankar, on that Pakistan terror front, India and the United States very clearly are not on the same page.
22:58If Trump wants, you know, good ties with Pakistan without mentioning any pressure on Pakistan to take action against terror,
23:04you know, you're in park terror that continues to bleed India.
23:07How do you read Prime Minister Narendra Modi's message that stand together against terror in all its forms?
23:13Well, because American memory seems to be a bit short on this aspect.
23:20And the central command head has basically given Pakistan, you know, good marks for helping to nab terrorists.
23:33But, you know, that was also the Pakistani strategy, even during the years that they were supporting the U.S.
23:42so-called fight against terror in Afghanistan.
23:46They were supporting the Taliban, they were supporting Osama bin Laden.
23:51And their strategy was, you know, incrementally, whenever the pressure built up,
23:57hand over one person from, you know, to somebody who's wanted to the U.S.
24:05So this would placate the U.S. for the time being.
24:08So I think Pakistan is back to its old game.
24:14And the U.S., for whatever strategic reasons, maybe because of Iran,
24:20maybe because Pakistan is offering base facilities to them, whether they are going to accept it, we don't know.
24:28In Balochistan, they are offering them a port quite close to the Chinese base there in Gwadar.
24:37Whether they've offered listening posts already on the Iran border, we don't know, or so on.
24:46So, for its own strategic reasons, the U.S. is again choosing to ignore some of the past history
24:57and, of course, the present policies that Pakistan still continues to follow vis-a-vis its neighbors,
25:05India and Afghanistan.
25:07Indeed.
25:09Daniel Block, how do you read this?
25:11Because we in India find it very hard to comprehend why the U.S. that killed Osama bin Laden in Abbottabad
25:17not push hard for action against terrorism on Pakistani soil.
25:23Does Trump think that India and Pakistan can be friends without action on terrorism?
25:29And especially after India has already bombed 11 air bases, brought down close to a dozen Pakistani warplanes
25:35and targeted 9 terrabases and 11 air bases?
25:39I think there's two explanations.
25:42The first is, and this is, I think, the less powerful explanation of the two, but it's still operating,
25:50so I'll put it out anyway.
25:52The United States still sees some value to having a relationship with Pakistan for a couple reasons.
25:57Just to name one big one, they don't want Pakistan falling entirely into China's orbit for geopolitical reasons.
26:04They still want to maintain some kind of working relationship with the country.
26:07So I do think that that's a factor here and part of why the United States is trying to maintain
26:14some kind of working relationship with Pakistan.
26:16There are other reasons why it believes it's in its interest to do that as well.
26:20But the other thing is, you know, I don't think there's a lot of coherent logic to much of Trump's foreign policy.
26:27And I think that antagonizing India and shifting more toward Pakistan falls in that category.
26:34This is not something that I think most of the American foreign policy community believes is in the United States' strategic interest.
26:41But Trump is doing it anyway.
26:43And that just defines a lot of what Trump does on the international stage and on the domestic stage.
26:48Okay, Anand Ranganathan, for Donald Trump, is it more about, you know, a crypto deal or family deals?
26:56Or is he trying to wean Pakistan away from China?
26:59Is he being played by Pakistan?
27:02I think it's a mix of all.
27:06But I think over above the overarching aspect of whatever Trump indulging in is transactional.
27:16And I think at some point or the other, one has to respect that's the man he is.
27:21That's the man America chose.
27:22So I don't think India should mind the way Trump is behaving.
27:27The difference now is that we can stand up to the bullying.
27:31I mean, America is perfectly in its own right to do whatever it feels is in its best interest.
27:38Now, for decades, we felt it, but we never achieved it.
27:43Now we are achieving it.
27:44Let America be friends with Pakistan.
27:46Let America consider almost China as an enemy country and yet trade 600 billion dollars with it.
27:51We will trade with America.
27:53We will trade with Russia.
27:54We will secure our energy as well as security interest.
27:58That is the difference right now.
28:00Otherwise, we should not mind whatever the other country does.
28:03I mean, for heaven's sake, 80% of Pakistan's armed arsenal comes from China.
28:08And we have a trade of 125 billion dollars with China.
28:11True, true.
28:13True, true.
28:14Seema Sirohi, you know, you've been covering this foreign policy from the Indian side, from the American side over decades.
28:23So do you notice this harder stance when it comes to India responding to the United States and how it deals with Pakistan keeping Indian interests first?
28:34So, for example, you know, because the Americans were in Afghanistan, a lot of time American interests were supreme.
28:41So even if Pakistan was hitting us in Kaluchak or after parliament attack, India would not hit back.
28:46Or 2611, India did not hit back.
28:48But now, India has hit out at nine terror camps, 11 air bases, brought down a dozen Pakistani warplanes.
28:58See, it's as far as US and Pakistan relations getting closer or further apart, it's a cycle.
29:08You know, right now, Pakistan falls in a very sweet spot as far as various events that are going on in the world.
29:17And we have to give them credit for sort of being ahead of the curve.
29:23They figured out what moves President Trump and his inner circle.
29:29And they acted accordingly.
29:31And India is not a country like that.
29:34It won't do those things.
29:36Those things are very clear.
29:38So and also don't forget that they are being assisted, Pakistan that is, with a band of lobbyists,
29:47not only paid by Pakistan, but paid by a couple of other Gulf countries who do part time, you know, lobbying for Pakistan.
29:57The overall thing that they want to achieve with by opening their country to anything and everything that Trump wants is that Trump would put pressure on India to come to the negotiating table on Kashmir.
30:15Something that hasn't happened and is very unlikely to happen.
30:19But that's their hope.
30:21That is the Pakistani hope.
30:22And so far, they are in a good position.
30:30And if you remember, at the time of the conflict, the four day conflict, Operation Sindhuur and the ceasefire, Marco Rubio had put a tweet in which he had said that,
30:45that India and Pakistan will meet in a third country, etc.
30:49That was totally out of the blue, right?
30:52And why did he write it?
30:54It was at, I think, behest of Pakistan to please Pakistan, to get them completely, you know, on the American side.
31:05So it's right now, very messy how much Pakistan actually achieves with the US in terms of strategic benefit remains to be seen.
31:19But in terms of PR and all the other soft stuff, they have achieved quite a bit because President Trump seems to be pretty open to the idea and all the ideas that General Munir is putting forth.
31:36Anand Ranganathan wants to come in.
31:38Anand Ranganathan wants to come in.
31:39I also want to put a question to Ambassador Shankar.
31:41But Anand, go first.
31:42No, I mean, great points by Seemanji.
31:44But I'll just like to add something.
31:46The difference has to be highlighted.
31:48And it's very clear for the citizens of India.
31:50That's why I say.
31:50And Chitambaram, he is on record that when he was the Home Minister, the Americans came to him and said, please, cool down.
31:58Do not attack Pakistan.
32:00And we relented.
32:01And today the situation is Americans come and say, please don't do it.
32:05We bombed 11 of their targets.
32:07And they say, please don't buy Russian oil.
32:09And we buy 130 million barrels of it.
32:11So the difference is there for everyone to see.
32:14Who is surrendered is the question that need not even be answered.
32:18It's very clear.
32:19And Ambassador Shankar, you think it's working for Pakistan?
32:23I mean, when you look at Pakistan today, so they may get a free lunch at the White House.
32:29Pakistan's being slammed across.
32:30Afghanistan is bashing them up.
32:32They're killing Tehrike Labbeg people in their own country.
32:34I believe a dozen people were killed in Balochistan.
32:37There are lives being lost in Khaybar Pakhtoonghua.
32:40And they're saying, somehow get India to talk to us on Kashmir.
32:44Do you see that?
32:44Do you see that happen?
32:45Do you think India-Pakistan talking on Kashmir?
32:47No, I don't see that happening.
32:50I think Pakistan has so many domestic issues to resolve.
32:55Their economy is in a black hole.
32:59You know, it's being completely kind of sustained through debt rescheduling and inflows from either China or the Gulf.
33:09It's heavily indebted because of the China Park economic corridor, because the terms were not really beneficial, you know, high interest rates and excessive costs and so on.
33:25And at the same time, its polity has been going through a difficult phase with Imran Khan, the most popular politician in Pakistan in jail, his followers in jail, and insurgencies in Balochistan, in Khaybar Pakhtoonghua, in the frontier areas, the tribal areas.
33:50So, and the Pakistan Taliban also.
33:54So, and then it has tense relations with both of its neighbors in the east as well as in the west, largely flowing from its own, you know, overreach with regard to these countries.
34:08So, I think Pakistan has to finally learn to cut its coat according to its cloth, if it is to stabilize itself, stabilize its economy.
34:20Whereas what they do is to look for some external benefactor, offer him facilities for sale or her, I mean, whichever country, and then hope through this external support to balance India.
34:38So, it's been a policy which has not helped them to balance India, but has sunk them because it's locked them into a policy of strategic overreach, as I call it.
34:52They have to find a way to unlock themselves from it, look at stabilizing the economy, look at building political consensus within their country to be able to move forward.
35:04And clearly, Siddharth, that doesn't seem to be happening, but for that, somebody in Pakistan would need to have a stable mind.
35:12And when a radical Islamist like Mullah Asim Munir leads that country, and when you hear his speeches or even Shamshad Bek, that country really, you know, seems to be going through hell and he seems going down.
35:23But does the U.S. really think that it can use trade as a weapon, you know, to get India to mend fences with Pakistan, like Trump referred, even if it was during Operation Sindur or immediately after Operation Sindur?
35:35The fact is that the United States, and like most presidents, it has also launched a series of battles and perhaps one mega war called the Trade War with multiple nations.
35:47And if you see nation upon nation, including Japan, the benefits for the United States are very limited.
35:55The jury is out on what it will mean for prices and the shift back to the United States.
36:01With China, it's clear that the escalation that China has done on rare earths is actually the most significant chapter in the recent past of the United States being told that trade is not a weapon that it can use so freely.
36:18In the Indian context, I think it's very clear there has been a hit, but that hit is perhaps on account of misplaced United States priorities.
36:28Were we to see a resolution and a settlement and a lowering of rates and perhaps some purchases give and take from both sides, it will be clear that we are on the path of restoring our trade relationship.
36:42Will a big mega omnibus trade deal emerge in the next few days?
36:47I would say that we should hold our horses on that particular point.
36:50Fair enough. I will let that be the last word on this part of the show.
36:53I want to thank all my guests for joining me here.
36:55Chinese President Xi Jinping has sacked two top Chinese generals in the war against corruption.
37:01And this is just the latest in a long list of sackings.
37:04The unprecedented action taken by President Xi Jinping saw the Chinese Defense Ministry confirming that Senior General He Widong and Admiral Mia Hua have been dismissed on charges of serious corruption.
37:17The two top Chinese military generals have been expelled from the CPC and also from the Chinese Armed Forces.
37:23So, General He Widong and Admiral Mia Hua were sacked on charges of serious corruption.
37:31General He Widong is the first sitting general on the Central Military Commission to be axed.
37:38China, in a statement, their defense ministry in a statement said,
37:41General He and Admiral Mia Hua seriously violated the CPC discipline.
37:46The general stand accused of serious corruption involving large sums of money.
37:53Analysts say President Xi Jinping has purged over 100 generals so far.
37:59At least nine top generals, including the Rocket Force commander, were sacked for procurement-related scandals.
38:06Apart from these top generals, and this is over the course of the past several years,
38:124,000 military officers from the Army, Navy and Air Force, PLA Army, PLA Navy and the PLA Air Force have been purged in a sustained anti-corruption drive
38:26that some analysts see as President Xi consolidating his control, total control over the armed forces and the Chinese Communist Party.
38:37We get you more in this report.
38:44China trembles under one man's shadow.
38:47As the Communist Party gathers for its pivotal fourth plenum, Xi has struck with ruthless precision, launching his most dramatic purge since taking power.
39:01In a move that sent shockwaves through Beijing's elite, he has sacked China's second-highest-ranking general,
39:08He Widong, along with eight other senior officials just days before the plenum began.
39:14This isn't governance, it's domination.
39:18He Widong wasn't just any official, he was Vice Chair of the Central Military Commission,
39:25the supreme military organ that Xi himself commands.
39:29His downfall signals that no rank, no loyalty and no uniform can shield anyone from Xi's tightening fist.
39:38With He gone, the CMC has been reduced to just four members,
39:42its smallest line-up in Chinese history.
39:46Three have been purged since 2022.
39:50The result?
39:51Xi now wields more military power than any leader since Mao Zedong.
39:56But this purge goes beyond the military.
39:59The eight others expelled were China's inner circle of power,
40:03overseeing Taiwan,
40:05facing commands,
40:06the nuclear arsenal,
40:07and the ideological machinery that keeps the People's Liberation Army loyal to the party.
40:15The Defence Ministry accused them of grave-duty-related crimes involving huge amounts
40:21and exceptionally negative impact,
40:24Beijing's usual euphemism for political disloyalty.
40:27Now, as the 4th plenum unfolds,
40:31Xi prepares his next act,
40:33filling the Communist Party's top organs with loyalists.
40:38Analysts expect 15 to 30 hand-picked cadres to join the Politburo and Central Committee,
40:44ensuring no trace of dissent remains.
40:47The 2025 purge could surpass even the 2017 anti-corruption campaign,
40:53marking the largest political shake-up in decades.
40:56But the purge isn't about cleaning house,
41:00it's about erasing threat.
41:03Behind the rhetoric of anti-corruption,
41:05this is a power massacre in slow motion.
41:08Each dismissal tightens the news around potential challengers.
41:13Each disappearance sends a message to the elite,
41:16fall in line or vanish.
41:19What began as a campaign to restore discipline
41:21has mutated into a one-man crusade for absolute control.
41:25The corridors of Zong Nanhai echo with silence,
41:30not order, but fear.
41:32And looming over it all is 2027,
41:35the year US intelligence believes Xi wants his forces ready to invade and occupy Taiwan.
41:42To achieve that, he's silencing every obstacle.
41:45In the barracks, the party and the shadows.
41:50Xi Jinping isn't just tightening his grip on power,
41:53he's making sure no one else ever holds it again.
41:57With the Bangana Datta,
42:00Pura Report, India to the global.
42:01The generals and the admirals sacked.
42:06Are they the ones telling him
42:08that we are not ready to wage war against Taiwan
42:10or at least not in a position to win it?
42:12Joining me on India first is left-in general Sanjay Kulkarni,
42:15former chief of staff of the Leh-based 14 Corps,
42:19former director general of infantry,
42:20and senior journalist and analyst Sandeepuneetan.
42:23General, your reading of these sackings.
42:28Gaurav, at the very outset, I would say,
42:30it's the top nine generals go down like nine pills.
42:34For a very simple reason, of course,
42:36Xi Jinping has a zero tolerance for corruption
42:38ever since it's come in 2012.
42:40He's been at it.
42:41But then primarily at this point of time,
42:43it looks like tightening his grip,
42:45consolidation, control,
42:47and ensuring that he means business.
42:50And what he has in mind is 2039.
42:53And if only the third term gets over in 2027,
42:56he has enough.
42:58He's not going to go away.
42:59And therefore, by 2037, 39,
43:02that he intends to be in power,
43:03he doesn't want anyone threatening him.
43:06And in that context,
43:07you're going to be seeing top-notch commanders,
43:10general, number two in the CMC,
43:13of which he heads the CMC.
43:15You have the rocket force commander.
43:17You have the theater commander.
43:18You have the political commissar
43:20of the army and the navy.
43:21Everybody go down,
43:22not just the military leaders.
43:24Even the corporate leaders go down.
43:26So that's an indication
43:27that Xi is consolidating power.
43:30Xi, of course, means no corrupt,
43:32zero tolerance for corruption.
43:34That's acceptable.
43:35But then he knows also in a hostile
43:37international environment,
43:39he does not want
43:40an hostile internal environment.
43:43And in that context,
43:44you will see the kind of friction
43:45that are taking place
43:46the world over.
43:47He intends to be cool
43:48and so that he can guide the country
43:50because that's not facing too much
43:52economically also.
43:53Sandeep.
43:54Just about 5%.
43:56Sandeep, all indications are
43:59that Xi's control over power
44:00has been absolute.
44:02But the fact,
44:03as the general also points out,
44:05sacking General He Vidong,
44:07the second top general in China,
44:10either the charges are extremely serious
44:12or Xi is still not sure
44:14that he controls power absolutely.
44:16Absolutely, Gaurav, you know,
44:19in fact, this is unprecedented.
44:20We've never seen this kind of purge
44:23of Chinese generals
44:24in the, you know,
44:26in the Central Military Commission
44:27since the Cultural Revolution
44:29almost half a century ago.
44:31That is how historic
44:32these dismissals have been.
44:34It's almost unprecedented.
44:36Number two of the Central Military Commission
44:38being removed.
44:39It's unheard of.
44:41The rocket forces commander
44:42being removed.
44:43The head of the commissar,
44:45the chief commissar
44:46has been removed.
44:47The eastern theater commander
44:49has been removed.
44:50What is Xi Jinping
44:51going to fight the next war with?
44:52It is literally the night
44:54of the generals, Gaurav,
44:55unprecedented,
44:56even for Xi Jinping.
44:57And I tend to believe that
44:58as General Kulkarni mentioned,
45:00this is Xi Jinping
45:01trying to eliminate
45:02any potential challengers
45:04to his, you know,
45:06his next tenure.
45:07He's the president for life.
45:09He wants to ensure
45:09he stays that way
45:10and nobody comes
45:11even close to that.
45:12And Gaurav,
45:13very quickly,
45:14we saw that massive
45:15military parade
45:16in September in Beijing.
45:18Yes.
45:19China flexing its muscles
45:20to the world.
45:21Now the political party
45:23has always been,
45:24the Chinese Communist Party
45:25has always been wary
45:27of the military.
45:29They do not want
45:30the tail to be wagging the dog.
45:32So this is Xi Jinping
45:33literally telling the military
45:35that I am the boss.
45:36Don't you dare try anything.
45:38However big you might get,
45:39I am still the boss.
45:40That's what he is actually doing.
45:42Some of those sacked
45:44have been considered,
45:45are considered very close to him.
45:47Army generals,
45:48Navy admirals,
45:49Rocket Force chief,
45:50Eastern commander,
45:52this would,
45:53Eastern theater commander,
45:54general,
45:55this would indicate
45:56that the forces
45:58he is putting in place
46:00and he had personally
46:02invested everything
46:03creating this force
46:04of the future.
46:05The Eastern theater command,
46:07the forces that are meant
46:08to take on Taiwan,
46:09his ultimate dream,
46:10reunification,
46:12those forces,
46:13the rocket forces,
46:14they are unable to guarantee
46:15him victory,
46:16at least not yet.
46:17He got up,
46:19all nominees are his own.
46:21There is no denying the pact.
46:23They have served with him.
46:24He knows them well.
46:25And that's the reason
46:26why they are there
46:27to ensure China
46:28as center of the universe
46:29touches to be number one
46:31economy in the world.
46:32That's what the ultimate aim
46:34of Xi Jinping is.
46:36And therefore,
46:36he knows their strength.
46:38He knows their weaknesses.
46:39He also knows
46:40that since he's getting older,
46:42who can threaten him?
46:43And in that context,
46:44he knows everyone close by
46:46who can,
46:47who is.
46:47Everybody is being monitored.
46:48And that's the reason
46:49why Sandeep rightly said
46:51consolidate.
46:52And that consolidation
46:53is with a view
46:54that is no threat to him.
46:55It is he.
46:56He is the king.
46:57He is the man
46:58who will take China.
47:00He's promised the Chinese
47:01the dream of 2039.
47:03He will deliver.
47:04That is what he feels so.
47:06And with what?
47:07With America also
47:08almost finding it
47:09so difficult now
47:10to face China
47:11in terms of
47:12rare earth minerals
47:14and anything and everything,
47:16the Chinese are
47:17technologically also
47:18now really getting on top,
47:20whether it is EV,
47:21solar technology,
47:23whether semiconductor,
47:24biotechnology,
47:25everything.
47:26China is a threat
47:27to America.
47:28And Xi Jinping knows
47:30nobody in China
47:31is there today
47:32who can take on
47:33that mantle
47:33to face
47:34any kind of mavericks
47:35that may come along
47:37anywhere in the world.
47:38But Xi Jinping
47:38will remain in power.
47:40He will ensure
47:41whoever it is,
47:42everyone nominated
47:43are his own people.
47:44And therefore,
47:45even character,
47:46he will not,
47:47you saw what happened
47:48to the foreign minister.
47:49You saw what they did.
47:50He didn't have
47:51to root for anyone,
47:52whether it is foreign minister,
47:53defense minister,
47:54theater commander,
47:55number two,
47:56anyone and everybody
47:57who comes in his way
47:58to see
48:00for him.
48:01If you were to look at
48:02some of these charges,
48:04General,
48:04and let me bring in
48:05Sandeep for a final word.
48:07If you were to look at
48:08some of the charges,
48:09if there's corruption
48:10that's that rampant
48:11in the rocket force,
48:13if corruption is so rampant
48:15in the eastern theater commander
48:16and eastern theater command,
48:19if 4,000 soldiers
48:21and officers have been purged
48:23and 100 generals,
48:24would this indicate
48:25that the Chinese armed forces
48:27are not fit for war
48:28or at least not fit
48:30to win wars,
48:31at least not get Taiwan
48:32in the timeline
48:33that Xi thinks
48:34they may get Taiwan?
48:37Absolutely, Gaurav.
48:38You know,
48:38when a force falls on,
48:40you know,
48:40easy virtues like this
48:43and, you know,
48:44falls prey to corruption,
48:46there has been
48:47very few instances
48:48of corrupt forces fighting
48:49and what are they fighting for?
48:51And corruption is all about
48:52getting rich,
48:54enriching yourself,
48:55your families,
48:56your friends,
48:57all of that.
48:57And war is bad for business.
49:01It's bad for corruption.
49:02So it's clearly,
49:03you know,
49:04a force that is so deeply corrupt
49:05as these purges seem to indicate.
49:07Literally,
49:08every one of these generals
49:09has had his hand in the till.
49:11If that is the case,
49:13then, Gaurav,
49:13I mean,
49:14I sincerely doubt
49:16whether they have
49:16the stomach,
49:18the appetite
49:18for a war against Taiwan
49:20which will take
49:20tens of thousands
49:22of casualties,
49:23you know.
49:24Absolutely.
49:25You know,
49:25when I was reporting
49:26from Taiwan
49:26and I've interviewed
49:27their foreign minister,
49:28then foreign minister,
49:29Joseph Wu
49:30and some of their
49:30military generals,
49:31they said,
49:32we are like a porcupine.
49:33You may try to attack us
49:35but you will not be able
49:36to win.
49:37At least that is what
49:37Taiwan thought
49:38and the US strategic
49:40ambiguity,
49:41what does that indicate?
49:42Perhaps over the next
49:43several days and weeks,
49:44we shall have another debate
49:45on that.
49:45But General Kulkarni
49:46and Sandeep
49:47for joining me here
49:48on this India First
49:49special broadcast,
49:50many thanks.
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