00:00Okay, so I looked over some of these before we started. I'm definitely on board with a couple of these,
00:05and the first one in particular is one that I do agree with your sentiment on, which is the Houston
00:11Astros.
00:11It feels like we have a number here that's based on 2022, because honestly, you know, Peter, they always seem
00:20to be able to bring up young players on the pitching side and the hitting side that perform, that are
00:27in rookie of the year conversation or in their second year.
00:29I don't see that anymore with the Astros, and not only do I not see that, I see a lot
00:34of players who are aging. I am concerned that this number is just a reflection of how good Houston has
00:41been in the past and not the present.
00:44I'm totally with you. Yeah, I took the Astros under 86 and a half wins and to miss the playoffs
00:50at plus 155. And it's good to see that the market has already adjusted down to 85 and a half.
00:56And I'm sure those playoff odds are a little bit shorter.
00:58And it's a big reason what you already said. But the two guys who would fit into that mold of
01:04young guys is Tatsuya Imai, who they just got over from the MPB.
01:09And I think in a MPB starters first year in Major League Baseball, it's a little bit of an adjustment.
01:15Will he become a good pitcher in the future? Maybe.
01:18But can I project over 130 innings? Can I project an ERA below four? I don't think I can.
01:24And then you have Cam Smith, who I do think is going to take a jump. But last year, he
01:28ran into a major rookie wall.
01:30And then the rest of them, I agree, it's a lot of aging guys. But my biggest problem with the
01:36Astros this season is their rotation.
01:39I love Hunter Brown. Who doesn't love Hunter Brown? But after that, Christian Javier has not been consistent.
01:45We already talked about Tatsuya Imai. Mike Burrows is a guy who's more of a five and dive type pitcher,
01:52going five innings, not much longer.
01:53I think he's solid, but he might be the second best pitcher in this rotation.
01:58And then rounding out said rotation, Lance McCullers Jr., we haven't seen a lot from him lately.
02:03And with Josh Hader starting the year on the IL, thinning out that bullpen, I just don't think the pitching
02:09is going to be there for the Astros.
02:10And that's why I like the under.
02:11Yeah, understood. I mean, this number was not a lot higher with prime Verlander and prime Garrett Cole.
02:18And, you know, for Amber Valdez, I mean, those were some big names on the Houston Astros in the past.
02:24They're all gone right now. Is that cranky?
02:26OK, now let's get to the Padres here. I really don't have a strong opinion on this, so I love
02:30yours here.
02:31So the Padres number is lower than it has been in the past.
02:35It's 83 and a half. And I don't think this is necessarily a direct product of the Dodgers being so
02:41good.
02:41So I love your explanation as to why you think that San Diego just may be an underperforming team this
02:46year.
02:48Yeah. Another one where it's good to see that I was ahead of the market.
02:51I bet the Padres under 85 and a half wins and now it's all the way down to 83 and
02:56a half.
02:56And I think a big reason why is people are paying attention to this starting rotation.
03:01It'll be a theme throughout my MLB futures.
03:03You look at it and you say, all right, I like Nick Pavetta.
03:07And then afterwards, Michael King is a very talented pitcher, but he has been getting blown up in spring training.
03:15And spring training stats, you take him with a grain of salt.
03:19But post-injury spring training stats, I pay a little bit closer of attention to.
03:25And he's got an ERA hovering around 11 in spring training.
03:28And then you continue to go down the rotation.
03:31Randy Vasquez put together a decent year by ERA standards.
03:34But if you look at a lot of the underlying ERA estimators of what he should have done, he's probably
03:39more of a five starter.
03:41And then you keep going and there's not a lot to hang your hat on because Joe Musgrove is going
03:46to start the year on the IL.
03:47Hugh Darvish has already considered retirement post-injury.
03:50And Griffin Canning is also injured.
03:53So, it's a team that A.J. Preller can't really go add more at the deadline because he doesn't have
04:01that farm system.
04:02So, for me, again, Padres under.
04:05This is an interesting one here.
04:07I'm going to see this team this weekend here.
04:09Miami and Colorado.
04:10Rockies, 55 and a half.
04:12And I think somebody is looking at that number going, wow, that's the lowest they could ever get.
04:16Let's not forget the White Sox have been there the last few years.
04:20Rockies are projected to be the worst team in baseball.
04:22Are they going to be the worst team in baseball?
04:24They'll probably be the worst team in baseball, but I hammered over 52 and a half wins.
04:28We can't forget.
04:29The Colorado Rockies from 2022 to 2024 averaged 63 wins.
04:34Last year was an outlier.
04:36We did the same thing with the White Sox last season, taking them over 52 and a half.
04:41And they ended on 60 after one of the worst seasons in MLB history.
04:44The Rockies did the same thing.
04:46But they brought in Paul DiPotesta.
04:47They actually have a plan moving forward, and they've added a bunch of major leaguers.
04:52I like the rotation a lot more with Jose Quintana and Michael Lorenzen replacing the six and a half ERA
04:59that Herman Marquez and Antonio Sensatella gave them last season over 260 innings.
05:05It's going to be a team that will pitch better, defend better, and you're looking for a couple of bounce
05:10backs from Brenton Doyle and Ezekiel Tovar.
05:12So I really love the Rockies over this season.
05:15They always play well at home.
05:17Always 500 team at home, like no matter what happens and how good or bad this team is.
05:21All right, Peter, we're out of time.
05:23We'll check in again next week.
05:24We'll see how things pan out this season.
05:26Really appreciate you.
05:28Oh, okay.
05:28Peter's going to stay with us.
05:29I apologize.
05:30So there we go.
05:31We've got more time.
05:31When we come back next, we'll review the Pirates' season win total, Twins' season win total, and the Cardinals' season
05:37win total.
05:37You're watching Newswire here on SportsGrid.
05:40We'll be right back after this.
05:41Welcome back to Newswire.
05:43Peter Apple and the crew from Just Baseball are going to be live on our air today, 3 p.m.
05:47Eastern,
05:48so make sure you check out our Just Baseball show exclusively here on SportsGrid as we continue our conversation with
05:53Peter
05:54and go through some season win totals, which I love to do opening up this season.
05:58Curious about this one, too.
05:59You like Pittsburgh, the steam on the Pirates this season, signing a couple of guys, adding to the payroll here,
06:07Peter, a little bit.
06:07Man, you know, I got to tell you, you know, I'm not going to say I'm against you here, but
06:12gosh, like I feel like if we did an autopsy on all of these teams that jump back into free
06:17agency with all these one-year deals and two-year deals and trying to fish in this little pool of
06:22adding a little money, I don't know, man.
06:25Like, to me, it doesn't always work out.
06:28I know that the Pirates are more talented this year on paper.
06:31Sell me them being a 500 team this year.
06:34I will.
06:35So my win total projection for them is exactly 81 and 81, which is not asking a lot.
06:42And if we're talking about steam when it comes to signing free agents, there's also been steam in the market.
06:47I bet this at over 76 and a half, and it's all the way up to 78 and a half.
06:52And I think a big reason why is the market is realizing, hey, this Pirates team can finally hit.
06:57And if they can finally hit, they're likely going to be a 500 team.
07:01Why?
07:01The starting rotation could be a top five rotation in Major League Baseball.
07:07Maybe that's going a little bit too far, but let me explain.
07:10So you've got Paul Skeens at the top of rotation.
07:13Pretty good, right?
07:15And then coming in at number two, you have Mitch Keller, who's always been just a solid innings eater.
07:19Run a four ERA over 180 innings.
07:22But as you go deeper, it gets even deeper.
07:25Most notably Bubba Chandler, who is one of the best pitching prospects in baseball.
07:30And Bubba Chandler, even last year, told Paul Skeens, you better watch out because I'm going to be the opening
07:36day starter.
07:36He has that type of confidence.
07:38Top draft pick, throws 100 miles an hour, incredible arm.
07:42But then you also have Jared Jones returning from injury.
07:45And Jared Jones, when on, is a top 25 starting pitcher in baseball.
07:50Another guy who lives at 100 miles an hour at the top of the zone.
07:53And in their five spot, they have Braxton Ashcraft, who's one of the most underrated pitchers in Major League Baseball.
08:00A team we talked about in the last segment, the Houston Astros, Mike Burroughs, they're pretty similar.
08:05The thing is, Ashcraft is the Pirates five.
08:09Burroughs might be the Astros two or three.
08:12That's the difference.
08:14The one problem with the Pirates is they are going to be bad defensively.
08:19I mean, they added a lot of bats on short-term deals to hit, but on defense, not so much.
08:25So how do you hedge a team that doesn't play great defense?
08:29You're starting pitching staff.
08:31Your bullpen has to strike out a lot of guys.
08:33What do the Pirates have?
08:34A lot of guys who can strike out a bunch of batters.
08:38So I think it's all going to even out and result in an 81-81 type season.
08:43But also, if you want to take a little bit of a sprinkle on some Pirates long shots,
08:49let's say they can pull a Cincinnati Reds from last year and sneak into the playoffs
08:54and basically get into the playoffs for the first time since 2015.
08:58I took Don Kelly 15-1, and this was about a month ago.
09:03I'm not sure what the line has done now, to win manager of the year.
09:06Because if he can snap that playoff drought in his first season,
09:10I think Don Kelly's a great pick for manager of the year at 15-1.
09:14Yeah, and it's a really good one, too, because even if the Brewers win the division,
09:17they're going to be hard-pressed to give it to Pat Murphy again and again and again.
09:21Like, I just don't see that happening.
09:22So that's a really good idea, too.
09:24Okay, so is this a good idea with the Minnesota Twins?
09:27See, this is a dangerous one for me because, Peter, you know,
09:31you sold me a little bit more on the Cardinals, so I'm okay there.
09:34But, Peter, come on.
09:35If the Twins are out of this thing in the summer,
09:38aren't they going to just dismantle this team?
09:41This is a concerning team for me.
09:43I have no idea what they fired their general manager.
09:46They fired their manager.
09:47They're going to sell.
09:48They're going to buy.
09:48Pablo's out for the year.
09:50Like, if they're in it, you're going to fly over this thing.
09:53But if not, aren't they just going to trade everybody?
09:56By the bad news, front office chaos I am not worried about.
10:00I'm worried about what is on the field.
10:02And we have to remember, the Minnesota Twins were the favorites
10:05to win the American League Central last year.
10:08They have seven hitters currently in their lineup projected for a 100 WRC plus
10:12or above.
10:13And what do the Twins have after they sold off Duran,
10:16after they've sold off a couple of pieces?
10:18Starting pitching depth.
10:20They have a sneaky good starting rotation.
10:22They still have a fine bullpen.
10:23And the offense, a lot of the guys are still there.
10:26Yes.
10:26Could they falter and then they have to sell pieces off?
10:30Maybe.
10:31But they have a ton of depth.
10:33Right?
10:33When you trade big pieces away, you get prospects.
10:36You play with nothing to lose.
10:37I like the Twins.
10:39All right.
10:39Fair enough.
10:40Great stuff, Peter.
10:40And for all of Peter's info, the rankings,
10:43and all the discussion about season win totals and odds,
10:46check out Just Baseball, 3 p.m. Eastern, here on SportsGrid.
10:49Peter, enjoy opening day.
10:51Enjoy the baseball season.
10:53And we'll be talking again soon.
10:54Thanks again.
10:55It's going to be a blast.
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