00:00It's time for the forecast feed, and we're going to take you to the southwestern U.S.
00:04Instead of usually using the forecast feed to sniff out snow opportunities in the northeast
00:10or sometimes tropical threats off the east coast, we're looking at a heat wave here that
00:15has been a huge headline in the southwest and into the plains at times, and we're trying
00:20to find an end to this, or at least a shift in the area that will see the worst of
00:26the
00:26heat.
00:26And again, it's March, but we've been dealing with some tremendous records, and I'm going
00:30to show you some monthly record highs that have been broken, just incredible numbers
00:35here in many cases.
00:36Unprecedented March heat breaking monthly record highs in recent days.
00:41If we look back to late last week, Palm Springs, Friday, 108 degrees, Phoenix breaking the monthly
00:48record and then repetitively doing so, 105 Thursday, Friday, and Saturday.
00:54Vegas hit 97 on Friday.
00:56We're going to be close today, not quite that warm, but close, and other areas here
01:01breaking monthly record highs.
01:03We did it late last week in Rapid City at 86.
01:05We outdid ourselves on Saturday at 87.
01:08Denver, 86 was your high on Saturday.
01:11That's a March record.
01:12We may break that and have our earliest 90 coming up on Wednesday.
01:17And in Flagstaff, the old record high for the month of March was 78.
01:21It was 76, I should say.
01:22It was 76.
01:23We broke that record by 8 degrees on Thursday at 84 up there in the high ground in northern
01:28Arizona.
01:29So pretty incredible stuff.
01:30Hey, I do want to take a look at the reservoirs because I know I think this is on a
01:34lot of people's
01:34minds in parts of the southwest.
01:37I know it's been dry.
01:39We had a quick end to the wet season, but we're doing okay with the reservoirs.
01:44The reservoirs are in pretty good shape.
01:46We've inherited relatively decent rain and snowfall in one and two and three wet seasons ago.
01:54And really, we did okay earlier this wet season, late in 2025, before the calendar flipped to
02:012026.
02:02And then we had a little burst of action in February, but man, it got dry so fast.
02:07And reservoirs are doing okay.
02:08Reservoirs are doing okay in California, but snowpack really struggling out there.
02:15This from our friends at the California Department of Water Resources.
02:19Now, the data was last collected on Friday.
02:21They sometimes get a day off, but the northern Sierra snowpack really struggling only at 16% of
02:30average.
02:30That is a big 84% shortfall, 38% of normal snowpack for this time of the year.
02:38We spiked with the numbers that were a bit better than this, obviously, before it got dry and warm.
02:43But in the southern Sierra, we're at 56% of normal for March.
02:49It's a weird way to draw a six, but 56% of normal for March 20th.
02:53So again, significant shortcoming in snowpack.
02:57So reservoirs are doing okay, but the payoff moving forward, at least in the northern Sierra,
03:02is going to be less than normal here, given less snow to melt away as we get into the wet
03:06season,
03:07or into the drier season and the warmer season.
03:09Hey, we're very dry out there this week, obviously.
03:11Last week was dry.
03:12This week is dry.
03:13Some areas have not seen rain for a month now in the southwest, and we're getting into the dry season
03:19for sure.
03:20So here are some strong headlines for you.
03:22Many monthly records have fallen.
03:24Record heat this Monday, as we speak, is restricted to the southwest.
03:28We'll look at some candidates for record-breaking highs this afternoon.
03:32Pacific time, we're going to be peaking once again.
03:35But the expanding ridge is going to carry heat back into the plains on Wednesday.
03:39And the early end to the wet season is certainly bringing fire risk back into mind once again.
03:45It's also kind of torching some of the plant life out there.
03:50We've had a super bloom in some areas, but the heat and dryness that has really set in fast,
03:56not good for the bloom out there in areas near Death Valley.
03:59So here are Monday's record-challenging highs.
04:02Keep in mind, the numbers on the right there, those are daily records for the date, specific to March 23rd.
04:07And we expect to break these records easily in Phoenix and Vegas.
04:10Sacramento should break a record high.
04:12Albuquerque should eek past the record.
04:14Flagstaff a record high.
04:14Not monthly records, but daily records.
04:16And I'm going to look at the models here in a minute.
04:18I just wanted to give you an idea of the heat kind of rebuilding the ridge,
04:23expanding Tuesday and Wednesday once again.
04:26So I'm going to come back to the graphics at the very end of this here
04:29and look at a couple of seven-day forecasts.
04:31But here's the big picture.
04:32So this is the temperature anomaly.
04:34How do the temperatures near the ground compare to normal?
04:39And, well, this Monday afternoon, Monday evening, we have a couple of features on the map here.
04:44We've got a cold front that's moving through parts of the Carolinas.
04:48Behind that, we're cooling down.
04:49But, man, no debate about it.
04:51Just record heat holding.
04:53A strong ridge of high pressure.
04:55Our storm track is diverted well to the north.
04:58And, again, really just a strong ridge across the west.
05:02What goes on with this in the days to come?
05:05Do we get any relief?
05:06Wednesday, Thursday, there it is, expanding into the plains.
05:09We're back in record territory this Wednesday.
05:12Wednesday evening, Wednesday afternoons, when Denver could break its monthly record again.
05:16We've compounded upon ourselves multiple times over here with some monthly records breaking a few times.
05:22But we may have our first 90, our earliest 90, on record in Denver on Wednesday.
05:26There it is.
05:27Temps way above average.
05:28Friday, Saturday, you'll begin to notice we're still hot on Sunday.
05:33Let's go elsewhere.
05:34Let's go out into the Pacific and look way up at 300 millibars, the jet stream.
05:39And this is going to drive a change eventually.
05:42This is where we're going to find something that heralds change.
05:44But our ridge is still strong.
05:46There's Tuesday.
05:47It expands east.
05:48You can see the storm track diverted around that.
05:50But watch this.
05:52Watch this.
05:53Friday, Saturday.
05:54Here comes the storm system.
05:56It's not going to bring precipice, but it will bring an onshore wind to California Saturday, Sunday, Sunday especially, and
06:04Monday.
06:05And you see this?
06:06This onshore wind is going to be a game changer, finally delivering some Pacific air to the southwest.
06:14It will displace the heat away from California later next week and carry it into the plains.
06:20So it's going to be hot in the plains or very warm for March in the northern plains later the
06:24second week.
06:25So midweek as April begins.
06:28But as we go back to the graphics here, just a quick look at Denver making its first 90 in
06:35history, earliest on record for Wednesday.
06:38And a quick look at Los Angeles.
06:40Here we're going to find a drop down into the upper 70s early next week.
06:43So that's your forecast feed.
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