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In this episode of India Today Explains, we examine the West Asia war, focusing on Iran's escalating attacks on the United Arab Emirates. Since the conflict began, more than 1,700 missiles and drones have been launched towards the UAE.
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00:07Hello and welcome. You're watching India Today Explains. I'm Akshita Ananda Gopal.
00:11And over the next 30 minutes, we get you all the updates on the West Asia war
00:14with detailed explainers on what's happened through the week.
00:18We begin with the UAE attacks by Iran.
00:21Why is Iran constantly firing missiles and drones at UAE?
00:25And what's been the impact on Dubai?
00:27Also, we'll break down what the UAE defense system looks like
00:31and how they've intercepted 90% of missiles and drones fired by Iran.
00:36My colleague Sandeep Unitan joins me on the show to break down
00:39what exactly a retaliation from Gulf nations could look like.
00:44Also on the show, what could happen next in Iran?
00:47And if it's civil war, what will that actually mean?
00:51And finally, we compare Iran's strategy and America's strategy
00:5520 days into this war.
01:01The United States and Israel have gone to war with Iran,
01:04but it's the Gulf Arab nations that are paying the price.
01:08None more so than the United Arab Emirates.
01:11Since the conflict began, more than 1,700 missiles and drones
01:15have been launched towards the UAE, according to UAE's defense ministry.
01:19Over 90% have been intercepted by air defenses, fighter jets and helicopters.
01:25Yet the most significant blow may not be military, but psychological and symbolic.
01:31We've long heard of the Dubai dream.
01:34Marketed as a tax-free, conflict-proof, safe haven for global wealth.
01:40And that's been abruptly shaken.
01:41Missile and drone attacks, even when intercepted,
01:45have rattled airports, financial districts and luxury enclaves,
01:49exposing vulnerabilities in a city that built its brand on stability
01:53in an unstable region.
01:56More projectiles have been fired at the UAE than at any other country,
02:00seemingly even more than Israel,
02:02which alongside the United States actually initiated the war.
02:05So that brings us to the central question.
02:08Why Dubai?
02:10Dubai is in many ways the epicenter of globalization.
02:14For decades, it positioned itself as the Middle East's neutral refuge
02:18for capital, talent and tourism.
02:20But the current conflict has fractured that image.
02:23Investors, expatriates and companies are now confronting a reality they long discounted.
02:28Even the Gulf's most polished sanctuary is not beyond the reach of regional war.
02:34It's also signaling because Iran has cited Dubai's decades-long strategic alignment
02:39with Washington as justification for the attacks.
02:42The UAE is officially designated a major defense partner of the United States,
02:47a unique status shared only with India,
02:50facilitating deep military-to-military cooperation.
02:54Approximately 3,500 U.S. personnel are reportedly stationed in the UAE,
02:59primarily at the Al-Dafra airbase.
03:01Meanwhile, the UAE has emerged as one of Israel's closest regional partners
03:07since the 2020 Abraham Accords,
03:09particularly in trade, technology and security cooperation.
03:13While Egypt and Jordan maintain long-standing peace treaties with Israel,
03:18the UAE's relationship is characterized by rapidly expanding economic, diplomatic and strategic ties.
03:25So from Tehran's perspective, striking the UAE serves multiple objectives,
03:31signaling deterrence to regional partners of the United States,
03:34undermining normalization with Israel,
03:38also pressuring Gulf states to distance themselves from Washington.
03:43But let's be clear, Iran's actions also risk significant economic blowback.
03:48The UAE has consistently ranked among Iran's top three trading partners.
03:53In 2025, bilateral non-oil trade reportedly reached $7.5 billion.
03:58Dubai has historically functioned as a re-export hub,
04:02facilitating Iran's access to sanctioned Western goods and technology.
04:08Jabal Ali, where one birth was damaged in Iranian attacks,
04:12has long been a key port actually in this network.
04:14Approximately 8,000 Iranian traders and firms are registered in the UAE,
04:19and Iranian-owned assets in the country are estimated to exceed a whopping $300 billion.
04:26Daily life, but has been transformed in Dubai.
04:30Alerts now ping on residents' phones, warning of potential missile threats
04:34and urging them to seek shelter, to stay away from windows.
04:38The economic consequences for the UAE are likely to be significant,
04:42but nowhere more so than in Dubai,
04:45where tourism alone generates around $30 billion annually.
04:49More than 90% of its residents are foreign nationals,
04:52including one of the world's highest concentration of billionaires.
04:56And that's because for decades, Dubai sold itself as the Middle East's neutral refuge.
05:02The current conflict has cracked that image.
05:05Now you've got investors, expats, companies all confronting a reality they long discounted.
05:13Even the Gulf's most polished sanctuary is not beyond the reach of regional war.
05:18For many around the world, particularly in South Asia,
05:21the opening nights of this conflict will be indelibly associated with footage of attacks.
05:26On some of the most iconic locations of the Dubai.
05:33Now the United Arab Emirates has maintained that it's intercepted 90% missiles and drones fired by Iran.
05:39So let me break down for you what kind of air defense system the country has.
05:44We start with the top layer, the upper tier, which is the Taj system.
05:49A US-supplied system that intercepts ballistic missiles using hit-to-kill technology.
05:54It's the UAE's first line of defense against high-altitude, long-range threats.
06:01It's particularly suited to countering advanced missile attacks originating far beyond the country's borders.
06:08And then the second tier, the medium tier, is the Patriot PAC-3.
06:12This system tracks, destroys tactical ballistic and cruise missiles within the atmosphere.
06:19It plays a crucial role in actually plugging gaps led by the higher-tier systems
06:24and provides broader coverage against varied aerial threats.
06:28The third level is the Panzer S-1.
06:31Designed for close-range defense, it fires smart munitions that detonate near targets,
06:36increasing the likelihood of destroying fast-moving or low-visibility threats.
06:40Take drones, precision-guided weapons.
06:42Together, these three layers form an integrated defensive shield, often described as a sky guardian.
06:48It's capable of responding to modern, multidimensional aerial warfare threats with depth and with precision.
07:00As tensions escalate across West Asia, the possibility of retaliation by Gulf nations is becoming an increasingly serious concern.
07:08While many of these countries have historically balanced diplomacy with strategic restraint,
07:13this widening conflict could force them to respond more assertively.
07:18So what will a military retaliation look like?
07:21Sandeep Unitan explains.
07:24Iran has launched ballistic missile, cruise missile and drone attacks against all the countries of the Gulf region,
07:31West Asia, the GCC countries, over 16 days now.
07:35It's fired thousands of projectiles at Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain and Oman.
07:43Most of these countries have not responded yet.
07:46They all have capable militaries, but for some reason, they're staying silent, possibly US pressure.
07:52But if these countries, if the GCC countries decide to retaliate against Iranian attacks, how could they retaliate?
08:01Let's look at the key weapon systems that they have in their inventories which would allow them to target Iran.
08:07Now, the first missile that at least three countries have in this region is the Storm Shadow.
08:19Now, the Storm Shadow is a cruise missile, it's dropped by aircraft, that's in the inventory of at least three
08:27Gulf Air Forces.
08:29Saudi Arabia has it, UAE has it and Qatar has it.
08:33The UAE version is called the Black Shaheen, but the Storm Shadow is a version of the French missile called
08:39the Scalp.
08:40The Indian Air Force also uses it, it's called the Scalp, of course.
08:44The Storm Shadow has a range of something like 550 kilometers and it has a warhead of over 400 kgs,
08:54that's half a ton.
08:55And three aircraft types in these three air forces carry this.
08:59They could use it to strike at targets in Iran.
09:02So, apart from the Storm Shadow, you have the Army Tactical Missile System.
09:11Now, the ATA CMS is a ballistic missile that's only in the inventory of Bahrain.
09:21Tiny Bahrain is the only country in the region to have this ballistic missile that has a range of around
09:27350 kilometers.
09:31It's a short-range ballistic missile, but it's enough for Bahrain to target targets inside Iran.
09:38And then you have Chinese systems called the Wing Loon.
09:42Now, the Wing Loon is a male U-cab that is a medium-altitude, long-endurance, unmanned combat aerial vehicle.
10:00Now, the Wing Loon is in the inventory of Saudi Arabia.
10:04It's a Chinese drone.
10:06It has a payload capacity of something like 450 kgs and it can stay aloft for over 30 hours.
10:16Now, that's enough for Saudi Arabia to launch attacks at Iran using this.
10:23Now, the Wing Loon U-cab carries, as I said, 450 kgs, mainly bombs and surface-to-air missiles.
10:30Now, Saudi Arabia also has a very, very important missile which few other countries in the region do not have
10:38and that is the Dong Feng 21.
10:43Now, the Dong Feng 21 is a unique missile.
10:50This is believed to have been acquired by Saudi Arabia in the 80s or the 90s.
10:55The number of these missiles is not known, but this is believed to be a missile that the Saudi Arabia
11:02military forces acquired
11:04for possible use with a nuclear weapon at some point, these are, of course, never been proven.
11:11This missile has been seen in parades.
11:16It's a Chinese-made ballistic missile with a range of over 2,500 kilometers.
11:23Now, Saudi Arabia is the only country in the region, in fact, apart from Iran, that has a ballistic missile
11:31of this capability.
11:32In fact, it's the only GCC country in the region to have this ballistic missile, which it has used.
11:38It's shown in parades, but it's never really formally fired it, test-fired it.
11:42So, the status of this is unknown, but this could be one possible way that Saudi Arabia could, you know,
11:48retaliate against Iranian missiles that are hitting all of its, you know, oil infrastructure and its cities and its military
11:56bases.
11:57So, primarily, these would be the systems that all of these countries would use if they were given the go
12:03-ahead to launch attacks against Iran.
12:10Let's now take an in-depth look at Iran, a nation at the heart of the West Asian tensions.
12:16While a civil war is not inevitable, the risks are growing, and the potential consequences could also be catastrophic.
12:24Right now, the Iranian regime remains firmly in control.
12:27Despite growing external pressures, the government's grip on power is strong.
12:31The ongoing war abroad has actually consolidated this authority through a rally-around-the-flag effect.
12:38But what does that mean?
12:40In times of external threat or conflict, citizens often put aside their differences and unite behind their government.
12:46They want to speak in one voice.
12:47In Iran's case, this effect has boosted public support for the leadership.
12:52Following the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, public sentiment toward his son, Mujtaba Khamenei, is far from enthusiastic.
12:59Yet for now, a temporary surge of national unity, of patriotism, is keeping the regime secure.
13:06And this wave of patriotism makes it much harder for the opposition groups, like Kurdish militia in the North West,
13:13to gain traction or challenge Tehran in the short term.
13:17But the longer this conflict draws out, the greater the risk of unrest.
13:21Even if the regime survives, unpopular, hard-line successors may struggle to maintain internal cohesion.
13:28This could open the door to fragmentation within the country, which increases the likelihood of civil conflict over time.
13:34A civil war in Iran would likely mirror or even exceed the devastation seen in Syria.
13:39So let's put that into perspective.
13:41Syria, with a population of 22 million, displaced 6 million people during its conflict.
13:47So Iran, with a population of 92 million, could see up to 25 million people being forced to flee.
13:53That's roughly, if I were to give you a sense of what kind of numbers we're talking about, roughly the
13:59population of Australia.
14:01Neighbouring countries like Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, they don't have the infrastructure to handle such numbers.
14:07Iran's military strength adds another layer of complexity.
14:10The country is heavily armed with missiles, drones and even highly enriched uranium.
14:16In the event of civil war, these weapons could fall into the wrong hands and that further destabilises the region,
14:23potentially drawing in foreign powers.
14:25And so it creates a quagmire far worse than Afghanistan.
14:29Let's take a look at the other aspect of the story.
14:32Iran's control of the Strait of Ormuz that's got the world worried because around 20% of the world's oil
14:37exports pass through here.
14:38Well, if civil war is even the scenario, that would amplify global consequences.
14:44Any disruption could send oil and gas prices skyrocketing, destabilised global markets worldwide.
14:52Ethnic divisions could further complicate matters.
14:55The Kurds in the West, Azerbaijanis in the North, the Balochas in the South, might seek autonomy if central authority
15:02collapses.
15:03And this fragmentation would destabilise not just Iran, but the wider West Asia.
15:07In short, Iran is a powder keg.
15:11One spark could ignite a conflict far worse than Syria, with global consequences that no nation can even ignore.
15:22The strikes we're seeing across Iran are part of what analysts call the U.S.-Israel decapitation strategy.
15:29A military doctrine focused on eliminating the enemy's leadership.
15:34The idea is simple.
15:35Target the enemy's top leadership first.
15:37Destroy the command as well as the control centre.
15:40And trigger military and political collapse.
15:42The assumption always is that if the leadership falls, the system therefore collapses, crumbles, and that's the end of the
15:49war.
15:50The focus is on eliminating top figures.
15:54If you look at what's happened in Iran, the Iran's supreme leader has been eliminated.
15:58The revolutionary guard command structure has been eliminated.
16:03And so the command chain has been destroyed.
16:06That's the objective.
16:06So you paralysed decision making and force a regime collapse.
16:11The reality, however, does appear different.
16:14Because so far, while you've got some of the top leaders of Iran being eliminated, assassinated,
16:19the decentralised network of Iran continues to operate and continues that aggressive fight back.
16:26Several senior figures in Iran's leadership structure have already been targeted.
16:30At the top level, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
16:33His son has now taken over, Mojtaba Khamenei.
16:36The security chief, Iran's number two effectively, Ali Larijani, was assassinated this week.
16:41Defence Council Secretary Ali Shemkhani.
16:43Within the military command, you have the Revolutionary Guard Chief, Mohamed Fakhpour,
16:47who was killed early on in the conflict.
16:49The Armed Forces Chief, Abdul Rahim Moshavi, has also been killed.
16:53The Basij commander, Basij, is the paramilitary force in Iran.
16:57The Basij commander, Soleimani, also assassinated this week.
17:01The Defence Minister, Aziz Nasir Zadeh, the Intel Minister, all assassinated.
17:07This is part of Israel and the United States' strategy.
17:11Their strategy is to cripple Iran's command centre.
17:15But even as this strategy of decapitation is being pursued, how is Iran responding?
17:21Well, they've got what's referred to as a mosaic strategy.
17:24That is a decentralised war doctrine developed by the Revolutionary Guards over the last two decades.
17:31There's always been unrest and so they've always had this plan B in place.
17:35What is this decentralised structure, this mosaic structure that I'm referring to?
17:40The idea is simple. There's no single command centre.
17:43They may have a supreme leader, but there are many people involved in decision-making,
17:47so there's no one entity you can destroy.
17:50Instead, local units can operate independently, ensuring the system continues to function,
17:55even if your top ring leadership is eliminated.
18:00And so at the core, you've got Iran's main pillars, the IRGC, which I'm referring to as the Revolutionary Guard.
18:06Then there's the regular army known as Artej and then the Basij Militia.
18:10Think of them as a paramilitary force.
18:13And these forces are supported then by missile units, by drone fleets, naval forces,
18:17all of which has been used in the last many weeks of this war.
18:20And so you have regional command centres, which then feed into semi-autonomous war cells across the country.
18:28And that's where the decision is constantly being sent across about what to strike when.
18:34So a distributed network where each node can keep fighting, even if another is destroyed.
18:39If one base is done and targeted and destroyed, race to the ground, there's another one that immediately steps in.
18:44So this strategy has two key ideas.
18:47First, avoid fighting the enemy's strongest war, meaning that Iran tries not to confront U.S. air power directly
18:55because in that case, they'd immediately be defeated.
18:58Secondly, prolong the war, make it long, make it costly, continue retaliation in every way you can
19:05through missiles, drones and proxy forces.
19:08By doing that, there's also a whole lot of global pressure that piles up because every country then feels the
19:13pinch.
19:13So you exhaust the enemy politically and militarily, which means killing top commanders may not end the conflict.
19:20Iran can still continue launching missiles, drones and proxy attacks.
19:24And this is a model of war without a centre, which Iran has adopted.
19:32That's all we have time for in this edition of India Today Explains.
19:35Thanks very much for tuning in.
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