- 4 months ago
US President Donald Trump has demanded the unconditional surrender of Iran, stating that no diplomatic deal will be reached until the current leadership is replaced.
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00:00Good evening, you're watching India First. I'm Gaurav Saavand.
00:03Big statement from the US President Donald Trump.
00:06He insists only unconditional surrender by Iran is acceptable.
00:14President Trump says no deal with Iran except an unconditional surrender by Iran.
00:21He took to social media to say there will be no deal with Iran.
00:26After that, unless there's an unconditional surrender and after that, the selection of a great and acceptable leader.
00:35So the American President is implying that America would be involved in the selection of the next great leader of
00:43Iran.
00:44He says and I quote,
00:45We and many of our wonderful and very brave allies and partners will work tirelessly to bring Iran back from
00:53the brink of destruction.
00:55Make it economically bigger, better and stronger than ever before.
01:02So President Trump, after MAGA, make America great again, is giving a new slogan of make Iran great again.
01:11Iran will have a great future, make Iran great again.
01:17A meager is what President Trump is saying.
01:20At a time when American forces are relentlessly pounding not just Tehran, but Ishfahan, Fordo, Natanz and several other parts
01:30of Iran.
01:31Relentless wave after wave of airstrikes and missile strikes by the United States and by Israel.
01:39So you have multiple Iranian cities from Tehran to Qum, to Lam, to Natanz, to Fordo, to Ishfahan that are
01:48repeatedly being hit by wave after wave of American and Israeli airstrikes and missile strikes.
01:55But despite that, despite more than a week of American and Israeli strikes, Iran continues to strike and strike back.
02:05Of course, the intensity has reduced and drastically.
02:10So United Arab Emirates, they issued a statement saying UAE air defense intercepted nine Iranian ballistic missiles even today and
02:20112 drones.
02:22Media in Iran claimed Tehran attacked a US-owned oil tanker near Kuwait.
02:29More than 1,230 people have reportedly been killed in Iran since the offensive began on the 28th of February.
02:38The United States has said Iran's ballistic missile attacks have dropped by nearly 90% and drone strikes have dropped
02:47by a huge 83%.
02:50The Israeli Air Force in a statement has said 80% of Iran's air defense systems, as on date, are
02:58destroyed.
02:5815th wave of airstrike by Israel on the regime infrastructure, not just in Tehran, but also in Ishfahan.
03:08Now, sources are saying a drone strike on Iranian Kurdish opposition headquarters in Erbil has also been reported.
03:18Now, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps that's launched combined drone and missile attacks targeting the heart of Tel Aviv and
03:27central Israel.
03:28Iran's health ministry claims more than 2,000 people are currently being treated in different hospitals, 198 women and 8
03:37healthcare workers have also been killed in a statement that has just been put out by authorities in Iran.
03:45So President Trump says Iran has to surrender, it has to be unconditional surrender, only then will he make Iran
03:53great again.
03:54All indications from Iran, including a statement from Syed Abbas Araki, Iran's foreign minister, there is no question of surrender.
04:04We get you more in this story.
04:27The United States military, together with the wonderful Israeli partners, continues to totally demolish the enemy far ahead of schedule.
04:41We are prepared for any other eventuality, even, you know, a ground invasion.
04:50Day seven of West Asia war.
05:05Missiles over Tel Aviv.
05:08It's been full of bite, it's been full of bite.
05:13Massive blasts rocked Tehran.
05:19And Washington's words growing sharper by the hour.
05:27Sirens blaring across Tel Aviv as Iranian missiles streak through the sky.
05:36Interceptors firing as Iran targets the heart of the city.
05:40Iran's Revolutionary Guard says it has launched the 22nd wave of attacks under Operation True Promise 4.
05:49Firing Khoram Shahar 4, Khyber and Fateh missiles along with drones at Israeli targets.
05:59Meanwhile, massive explosions reported across Tehran, including near Tehran University.
06:05US and Israel continue their bombardment campaign, codename Operation Epic Fury.
06:25The amount of firepower over Iran and over Tehran is about to surge dramatically.
06:30And part of it is that we're going to have even more basing.
06:33And it's not just the UK.
06:34We've had other friends step up.
06:35And we're grateful for that.
06:37In just the last 72 hours, America's bomber force has struck nearly 200 targets deep inside of Iran, including around
06:45Tehran.
06:46And in just the last hour, US B-2 bombers dropped dozens of 2,000-pound penetrator bombs targeting deeply
06:53buried ballistic missile launchers.
06:55Notably, we've also struck Iran's equivalent of Space Command.
06:59U.S. President Donald Trump claims Iran's missiles are being destroyed every hour.
07:05They have no air force.
07:06They have no air defense.
07:08All of their airplanes are gone.
07:11Their communications are gone.
07:14Missiles are gone.
07:16Launches are gone.
07:17About 60 percent and 64 percent, respectively.
07:22Other than that, they're doing quite well.
07:39Israel claims near-complete air superiority, saying it has carried out 2,500 strikes and destroyed 80 percent of Iran's
07:47air defense systems.
07:55The human cost is mounting rapidly.
08:01The Iranian Red Crescent says at least 1,300 people have been killed in Iran.
08:11But Iran insists it is still in the fight.
08:15There is no request for a ceasefire by us, and there is no request for the negotiation with the U
08:21.S. from us.
08:23We have never sent any messages to them.
08:25So you can see, you know, the quality of our missiles, how much they are upgraded after the last war,
08:31because we learned lots of lessons.
08:33And we are prepared for any other eventuality, even, you know, a ground invasion.
08:41Trump says U.S. must be involved in choosing Iran's next leader, rejecting the possibility of slain supreme leader Ayatollah
08:49Ali Khamenei's son, Mojtava Khamenei, taking over.
08:53Tehran, however, has dismissed Trump's claims outright.
08:58Seven days into the conflict, the bombardment shows no sign of slowing.
09:06With missiles flying, leadership questions looming, and regime change talk growing louder, the war appears to be entering a far
09:14more dangerous phase.
09:17Bureau Report, India Today.
09:26Disruptive technology is playing a critical role in the Israel-U.S.-Iran conflict.
09:32So while the focus remains on the Iranian Shahid drones causing damage from Israel to UAE, from Qatar to Saudi
09:39Arabia, Kuwait to Oman,
09:41the United States is hitting back with Task Force Scorpion Strike.
09:47What is Task Force Scorpion Strike?
09:50The United States has unleashed for the first time its drone task force called the Task Force Scorpion Strike.
09:57The Task Force has launched countless one-way attack drones targeting vital assets and vital points across Iran.
10:05And let me tell you a little more about Strike Force Scorpion Strike.
10:09The United States Central Command launched Task Force Scorpion Strike designed to deliver low-cost but high-impact drones to
10:17the fighting forces on ground.
10:19And these are being used for the first time in these operations, Operation Epic Fury.
10:25Lucas, a low-cost uncrewed combat attack system.
10:30Lucas is a drone system manufactured by an Arizona-based company for the first time in 2025.
10:38Lucas, a unmanned kamikaze drone, weighs around 70 pounds.
10:44It has a maximum take-off weight of about 180 pounds.
10:49It has an extended range of close to between 600 to 800 kilometers.
10:54An endurance of about 5 hours to 6 hours from take-off to detonation.
11:01Once it takes off, it will crash into the adversary in the kamikaze drone form.
11:07So, Lucas has a cruise speed of about approximately 130 to 135 kilometers per hour, but a dash strike speed
11:16of close to 200 kilometers per hour.
11:19It can carry a payload of between 18 to 20 kilograms of explosives.
11:24So, the Lucas drone can carry multiple kinds of explosives and warheads, including the high-explosive fragmentation warhead.
11:34What does the high-explosive fragmentation warhead do?
11:37It can explode in the air and hundreds of shrapnel will fall towards the ground, hitting a vehicle.
11:46Vital assets, vital points, a military convoy, soldiers on ground, drones it can take on.
11:52It also has decoy payloads to saturate enemy air defenses.
11:57It carries multiple kinds of explosives, from high-explosive fragmentation warhead to shape-charge warheads.
12:04And shape-charge warheads can completely take out an enemy radar, air defense system, their missile launch sites.
12:14It uses an open architecture.
12:17The Lucas drone, it uses an open architecture.
12:19It allows different kind of payloads and even communication systems.
12:22And it can be deployed both for kamikaze strike or a suicide drone, that it goes and hits into a
12:28target and detonates and explodes.
12:30Or it can even be used as a target drone or as a surveillance drone, one-way surveillance drone.
12:35The cost, approximately $35,000.
12:40Much cheaper, much cheaper than the really expensive, state-of-the-art American drones, the MQ-9 Reaper, for example.
12:47The Reaper costs, and again, depending on the payload, is about $20 to $40 million.
12:53But do keep in mind, the Lucas is a kamikaze drone.
12:57One-time use.
12:59The MQ-9 Reapers, you can keep using them again and again and again.
13:03And they're far more sophisticated.
13:05Their roles are very different.
13:07Drone analysts say there is tremendous similarity between the Iranian Shahid drone that was supplied to Russia in large numbers
13:15by Iran.
13:15Several were recovered by Ukrainian forces and, of course, the Lucas drone design.
13:21Delta-wing Lucas drone, and you're looking at those images on your television screen, the Delta-wing Lucas drone is
13:27about 10 feet in length, approximately.
13:31The wingspan is about 8 feet wide.
13:34Lucas features a delta-wing design and a pusher propeller.
13:38So, this kamikaze drone, it's powered by a two-cylinder DA215 engine that gives it better fuel efficiency, better endurance,
13:46and lower acoustics, and lower signature on the radar compared to the Shahid 136 Iranian drone.
13:54So, what did the Americans do?
13:55And this, of course, is grapevine conversation that they recovered a Shahid drone and made something which is even better
14:01than the Shahid.
14:03Better, more powerful, more endurance.
14:05According to reports, it actually incorporates advanced technology like satellite data-link integration, AI-enabled mesh networking, and that's amazing
14:15for a swarm drone attack when hundreds of those attack drones come and carry out operations.
14:20Also, the anti-jamming capabilities and the nose-mounted gimbal camera for very precise target acquisition.
14:30The drone, it can operate autonomously beyond the line of sight.
14:35It supports mid-flight retargeting also and can be launched in multiple ways.
14:41It can be launched via a catapult.
14:42It can be a rocket-assisted takeoff or rattle.
14:45It can be launched off a truck, truck-based launch systems, or even from ships.
14:50And it's an absolute game-changer in these operations, according to soldiers who are using them on ground, being used
14:58for the first time in operations.
15:02Our munitions are full up, and our will is ironclad, which means our timeline is ours and ours alone to
15:12control.
15:14As long as it takes to ensure the United States of America achieves these objectives, and as we flow more
15:19forces, and as we flow more capabilities, and as our munitions, as we're flying over the top, have even more
15:27devastating effects, we set the tempo, we set the timeline, led by the commander on the ground.
15:32Our ear is to the ground to listen to Admiral Cooper, what he needs and what he needs he will
15:37get.
15:38Now, a couple of examples, in just the last 72 hours, America's bomber force has struck nearly 200 targets deep
15:46inside of Iran, including around Tehran.
15:48And in just the last hour, U.S. B-2 bombers dropped dozens of 2,000-pound penetrator bombs, targeting
15:55deeply buried ballistic missile launchers.
15:58Notably, we have also struck Iran's equivalent of Space Command, which degrades their ability to threaten Americans.
16:04Then, if I just look back over the last 24 hours of the operation, compared to where we were at
16:10its start, ballistic missile attacks have decreased by 90% since day one.
16:17So, about a week into this conflict, did Israel and the United States underestimate Iran's capability to strike and strike
16:26back, and of course, Iran's staying power in combat?
16:30Iran has claimed it hit an oil tanker of Kuwait, and continues to fire missiles and the Shahid drones in
16:36the direction of Israel and Arab countries in the region, targeting American interests and Arab nations.
16:42So, joining me on this India First special broadcast is Zivika Klein, Editor-in-Chief of the Jerusalem Post.
16:49Zivika Klein, welcome.
16:51How does Israel view the progress of this conflict at this stage?
16:56Israel and the United States both claim they have total or near total air superiority or supremacy, with 80 to
17:0390% reduction in Iranian missile and drone attacks.
17:07And yet, strikes have spread to Azerbaijan and also to Gulf allies.
17:13Apparently, they're running low on interceptors to target incoming Iranian drones.
17:20Is Israel winning?
17:21Is the United States winning?
17:23Or is Iran staying very strongly in the battle even now, sir?
17:29Hello, thank you for having me.
17:31Israel is winning, and the United States is winning.
17:37The amount of attacks and the level and the velocity of the attacks is something that hasn't been seen in
17:46years, maybe ever seen before.
17:49Therefore, the sophistication and the cooperation between the U.S. and Israel is so close.
17:57Generals in the Israeli army said, you know, they've never spoken so much English, and that's because of the cooperation
18:04with these countries.
18:06And I'll add another level to that is we're seeing some sort of a paradigm shift, which is not, you
18:13know, totally changed, but the Middle East has changed.
18:18Suddenly, there are all these countries with the United States, with Israel, against Iran, when Israel is actually usually the
18:28one being criticized and the one that these countries are fighting against.
18:33So, it's a very interesting and historic moment.
18:39But will this interesting and historic moment that you speak of, yes, with the decapitation of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, partial
18:49success was achieved.
18:50Regime remains strongly entrenched.
18:54Word from Iran is they're still calling the shots.
18:58They remain in control.
18:59And they say, if Americans and Israelis want to put boots on ground, they're welcome to try.
19:04This would be perhaps another Vietnam for the Americans.
19:09Right.
19:10So, first of all, I mean, it's only been six days since this war has begun.
19:17So, you know, there's still time and there's still ability to make changes.
19:23I will say that, yes, the IRGC is still ruling Iran.
19:28And that's the biggest challenge, how to topple a regime, but not only to topple a regime, to actually allow
19:35and enable a solution that is relevant for the Iranian people.
19:42And the impact is being felt by the region and the world.
19:48Energy supplies are disrupted and severely disrupted.
19:52Aviation is severely disrupted.
19:53People are unable to be in touch with their loved ones in different parts of the world, cannot reach there.
19:58Was all of this war-gamed by America and Israel, in your appreciation?
20:04Would there be mid-course corrections?
20:06And is Iran doing better than anticipated initially?
20:13I would say the opposite, I think.
20:17Iran is doing less good than what was expected.
20:23I can tell you that, you know, President Trump also said at the beginning, you know, the first few days
20:28of the war, he said, things are moving a lot faster than what we expected.
20:34And with regard to the elimination of the Supreme Leader Khamenei on the first 40 seconds of this operation is
20:45something that most of us were definitely surprised to see.
20:49Sometimes you would see this within an operation, but actually that's what launched the operation and the assassination of a
20:59lot of the leadership of the IRGC.
21:02So, and obviously, yes, this is turning into a mini-world war in a sense.
21:11And from Israel's point of view, it's Israel's survival.
21:16This is a regime that not only claims it wants to wipe Israel off the map, it actually tried to
21:26do so.
21:27And therefore, Israelis are determined to fight against this terrorist regime.
21:35Now, your point taken entirely for Israel, it's a battle of survival, and Israel is fighting back to avenge what
21:42happened on October 7, 2023, and there on.
21:45Many thanks for joining me.
21:47But as this battle in West Asia escalates, that's just being described as a mini-World War III,
21:55President Trump has actually started ramping up pressure on Tehran.
22:00There's a new question that's emerging.
22:01Is Washington, D.C. now directly exploring the Kurdish front against Iran, opening the second front?
22:10The U.S. is engaged with Iranian Kurdish groups, holding talks with Kurdish leaders,
22:16though the White House, at least as of now, it is implying that those conversations are linked to the American
22:21base in northern Iraq.
22:23But at the centre of this discussion is the KDPI, the Kurdistan Democratic Party of Iran,
22:33an Iranian Kurdish group, an opposition group that's been seeking greater autonomy for the Kurdish people since 1945,
22:40and operates largely from bases in the northern part of Iraq.
22:46Tehran, however, looks at the KDPI and other Kurdish groups as armed, separatist, insurgent groups.
22:56If Kurdish fighters do enter this conflict, as is widely being anticipated as America's plan B,
23:03it may be seen as a major game-changer, because the war so far has just largely been fought through
23:10airstrikes and missile strikes.
23:12Boots on ground may just mean getting the Kurdish people to start from the periphery and start moving towards the
23:20core.
23:21The Kurdish push could potentially open the ground front along Iran's western border.
23:28And we'll just explain that territory to you, because the Kurdish-held control, partially in Iran, partially in Iraq, partially
23:36in Syria, and a small part in Turkey.
23:39So that is the wider Kurdish-held area, Kurdistan, as they call it, there.
23:45Officially, Washington DC says its goal remains destroying Iran's missile manufacturing capabilities,
23:51missile strike capabilities, their naval capabilities, and preventing Tehran from acquiring a nuclear weapon.
23:58But is regime change through the Kurdish people and also through the Sistan-Balochistan route?
24:06Is that the plan?
24:07At cross-border, Kurdish operations would actually require approval from the Iraqi Kurdistan region,
24:14which controls the territory from where such operations are expected to be lodged.
24:20Iran is actually responding already to any such possibility.
24:23Iran has carried out a series of drone and missile strikes on these Kurdish bases in Iraq, and it's escalating.
24:31Perhaps that's a warning shot that's being fired.
24:34Don't even dare, don't even try.
24:36All of this suggests that if the Kurdish front opens, the war could enter an entirely new dimension.
24:42We get you more in this.
24:59A new front could soon open in the war against Iran.
25:04Not in the skies, but on the ground.
25:10Reports suggest Washington is exploring the possibility of Kurdish fighters launching cross-border operations from Iraq into western Iran.
25:22President Donald Trump has told U.S. media a Kurdish attack on Iran would be wonderful and that he's all
25:28for it.
25:31Trump's remarks is fueling speculation that Washington could be exploring Kurdish forces as a pressure point against Tehran.
25:40Reports suggest Kurdish fighters could be armed to launch cross-border operations, forcing Iran to divert troops away from main
25:48battlefield.
25:52The White House, meanwhile, has completely denied the reports.
25:58The Trump administration reportedly is considering arming Kurdish forces in the hopes of inspiring a popular uprising in Iran.
26:07Could you comment on that report?
26:08I could comment on the fact that the president has held many calls with partners, allies, and leaders in the
26:14region, in the Middle East.
26:16He did speak to Kurdish leaders with respect to our base that we have in northern Iraq.
26:22But as for any reports suggesting that the president has agreed to any such plan, is completely false and should
26:29not be written.
26:31The Kurds, a stateless ethnic group of nearly 30 to 40 million people spread across Iraq, Iran, Turkey, and Syria,
26:39have long had tensions with Tehran.
26:41But the idea is already facing pushback.
26:44The Kurdistan regional government in Iraq has strongly denied involvement.
26:49Spokesperson Peshwa Haramani called reports that Iraqi Kurdistan would help arm or send Kurdish opposition groups into Iran completely unfounded.
27:00He says the Kurdish region is not part of any plan to expand the war and instead supports peace and
27:05stability.
27:09The war is already spilling into Iraq's Kurdish region.
27:12These visuals from Erbil show a drone shot near the airport, crashing into a residential building in Ankawa.
27:20Earlier, Iranian missiles were also reportedly intercepted over Erbil, with smoke seen rising near a US base close to the
27:28airport.
27:28And as the war enters a more dangerous phase, talk of a Kurdish ground front is growing, even as Washington
27:35denies any such plan.
27:37With missiles now reaching Iraq's Kurdish region, the conflict between the US, Israel and Iran is clearly spilling beyond its
27:44original battlefield.
27:49Bureau Report, India Today.
27:58So even as this conversation about a possible Kurdish front against Iran, this conversation increases and intensifies,
28:06history actually explains why Kurdish groups remain deeply cautious, apprehensive and even suspicious about the intentions of Washington DC.
28:17Because this relationship has long been marked by strategic cooperation and repeated disappointment.
28:25Take for example 1988, Saddam Hussein carried out a chemical attack, gassing thousands of Kurdish people.
28:33Just a few years later, 1991, the first Gulf War, United States actually encouraged the Kurdish groups to rise against
28:40Saddam Hussein's regime.
28:42March 1991, Saddam Hussein's forces in Iraq, they brutally crushed the Kurdish uprising.
28:48And they expected, if the Kurdish groups expected that the Americans would come as the knight in shining armour, that
28:55really didn't happen.
28:56It was only in April 1991, did the US and allies step in, but established a no-fly zone in
29:04northern Iraq to protect the Kurdish population.
29:06Then again, let's talk about the second Gulf War, 2003.
29:10The Kurdish Pashmarga fighters, they fought alongside the US forces during the invasion of Iraq and they played a very
29:17critical role.
29:18You know, when the forces were marching from the north towards Baghdad, these forces played a very critical role in
29:25toppling Saddam Hussein.
29:26But despite expectations that independent Kurdish state did not emerge, Kurdish regions remain a part of Iraq, a part of
29:36Iran, a part of Syria and a part of Turkey.
29:40History explains why many Kurdish leaders remain very, very, very apprehensive.
29:48They may be used, yet again, and abandoned.
29:52I want to bring into this conversation, Brigadier General Reservist Yossi Kappawasa.
29:58He's heading the Jerusalem Institute of Strategy and Security.
30:02Joining us on this special broadcast.
30:04Also with me is Daniel Silverberg, former Pentagon and Capitol Hill official.
30:09Gentlemen, welcome. Great to have you back.
30:12Brigadier General Kappawasa, reports indicate that Kurdish groups have been used and abandoned by the US in the past against
30:19Saddam Hussein in Iraq.
30:211991-2003, reports also indicate President Trump spoke to some of these groups and leaders.
30:28Will this work this time? How do you read this?
30:33Well, I think the Kurds are part of the Iranian opposition.
30:38The Kurdish factions that are located in Iraq are part of the Iranian opposition, and they share the burden of
30:46removing the Islamic Republic from power, replacing it with a government that would care about the people of Iran and
30:54try to make their life better.
30:57And what they have in mind is to have more autonomous power for the Kurds in Iran.
31:03They know that the rest of the opposition is very sensitive to the idea that they would like to have
31:08a separatist attitude towards what needs to happen in the future.
31:13They are aware of that, and I think they are cautious not to cause any trouble in this respect.
31:18But unlike many other groups, if they are being given the necessary equipment and ammunition, they are able to conduct
31:32some military operations in the areas of their concern.
31:35And that's something that the Iranian government is very worried about.
31:40They took all kinds of precautionary steps to face such an attack.
31:43And the rest of the Iranian opposition is following it very closely to make sure that there's no separatism, because
31:52they are very concerned about that too.
31:54Because if the aim is to target the regime from within and use the people, then there is some conversation
32:01that you use the Kurdish people in the north.
32:05You use the Baluch people in the Sastan Baluchistan region, there are other ethnic groups.
32:11And then from different flanks, the periphery attacks the core.
32:16Is that more wishful thinking in your appreciation, sir?
32:21It's hard to say, but I think the major burden lies on the shoulders of the Farsi part of the
32:30population, the people of Tehran.
32:31In order to topple the regime, you need to cause some demonstrations and to see the people of Tehran take
32:40to the streets and remove the power, remove the existing regime from power.
32:46That has to happen.
32:47And what we are all telling them is that they should be prepared and ready for that when the time
32:52is ripe.
32:52And for the time being, what we are doing, we are working on weakening the regime and weakening the security
32:58apparatuses of the regime, so that eventually the time will be ripe for the people to go out to the
33:04streets.
33:05Not only in Tehran, but all over Iran, including in other places, in Baluchistan, in Kurdistan, in whatever.
33:11That's a very important point you're making, that you're waiting for the right opportunity, waiting for the right time for
33:19the Farsi people, the Persians of Iran to rise and not just the Kurds in Kurdistan or the Baluchis in
33:27Sistan, Baluchistan to rise from the periphery.
33:30The core has to explode.
33:31Daniel Silverberg, six days into this operation or almost a week into this operation, do you see that happen?
33:38Do you see the regime weakened enough for the people to rise either in the periphery or the core?
33:44Or do you still see the regime very firmly entrenched despite Ayatollah Ali Khamenei being decapitated?
33:52Because within Iran, they're saying there'll be a new Ayatollah in place.
33:55The systems are still working and strongly.
33:59Gaurav, it's good to be with you again.
34:01Thanks for having me.
34:02I have to say the pronouncements coming out of Iran remind me of the Baghdad leadership's grand pronouncements in 2003.
34:10A lot of bluster and not a lot of reality there.
34:13This is unquestionably a system right now under tremendous strain.
34:18Clearly, some decision-making capability is still in place.
34:22They're able to determine what targets to hit.
34:25They just went after an Amazon data center facility yesterday.
34:28That showed that someone is clearly making targeting decisions.
34:32But to say that the regime, everything is fine, business as usual, obviously, there's a fair amount of bluster there.
34:39The signals that I'm looking for of where this goes from here and whether the regime will crack is, are
34:47we going to be hearing from people inside the security apparatus communicating to the U.S., some even publicly saying
34:55there is an alternative here?
34:57We're not seeing those just yet, so I think it's going to be a little bit of time before this
35:03regime truly cracks.
35:04Would you want to hazard a guess on the timeline, an informed opinion considering multiple waves of airstrikes and missile
35:12strikes have been carried out on Iran wave after wave?
35:16When America is officially saying 90 percent of the Iranian missile strike capabilities have been taken out, 86 percent of
35:23their drone strike capabilities have been taken down.
35:26How long before they're no longer either an air power, missile power or even a naval power?
35:33You know, I'm pleased you asked the question that way, because you really have to assess military sector by sector,
35:39capability by capability.
35:42Unquestionably, Iran is going to be able to harass its neighbors and harass Israel through low tech drones, through through
35:50low level missile capabilities.
35:52But clearly, its ballistic missile capabilities has been seriously degraded.
35:58I saw a statistic upwards of 80 to 90 percent.
36:01And what people don't realize is Iran wasn't posing just a nuclear threat.
36:07The ballistic missile capability was a tremendous regional threat that likely motivated President Trump to want to take action here.
36:16So I think the missile threat is degraded.
36:18Clearly, the naval threat is degraded.
36:20But Iran still maintains any number of asymmetric capabilities that could have devastating global impacts.
36:28One, they're showing it in the Strait of Hormuz.
36:30If you can't get shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, all countries are going to feel that hurt.
36:35Two, don't discount that with Iran's regime up against the wall, they could deploy their asymmetric tools, namely terrorism.
36:43There are any number of soft targets throughout the Middle East, Europe, Africa, U.S. embassies, synagogues, what have you,
36:55that Iran could target.
36:57True.
36:58Brigadier Kapawasa, regime change from the air, just like airstrikes, may just be a pipe dream.
37:06In your considered opinion, will Israel and the United States have to consider putting boots on ground?
37:13Because many in Iran are indicating they're keeping the powder dry for ground operations.
37:19Perhaps draw the Americans and the Israelis in, like in Iraq, and then let it be a long-drawn affair.
37:26Well, I don't think there are going to be American or Israeli, definitely not Israeli, boots on the ground in
37:32Iran.
37:32What we have put forward as a goal of this war is, one, to deprive Iran from its capabilities,
37:39and secondly, to create the conditions that would enable the people of Iran to take control of Iran.
37:45We never said that we are going to make the regime change by ourselves and by putting troops in harm's
37:52way in Iran itself.
37:53That is not in the cards, in my mind.
37:56This is why this is going to take a longer time than it would have if we did put troops
38:01in this place.
38:04And that's why President Trump said it's going to take something like four to five weeks.
38:11And actually, there's no time limit.
38:13It will take as long as it takes.
38:15But eventually, we should get...
38:16No time limit, as long as it takes.
38:18So, tire the Iranians out, you know, the siege, perhaps, like in the Maryville Times.
38:26Daniel, the last 30 seconds I have on this part of the show, do you look at it as a
38:30siege around the capital
38:31and then tire the adversary out, make sure he runs out of food, water, ammunition, and then surrender, metaphorically speaking?
38:41General Kupferwasser is one of the best analysts out there on this.
38:44I might quibble with one point, though, which is I don't think time is unlimited here.
38:48The president might be saying four to six weeks right now.
38:51There is a political time clock on this.
38:54And he is, at a certain point, going to start hearing from his own party saying,
38:59all right, let's get back to the U.S. economy here.
39:01Enough focusing on Iran, even though most Republicans right now fundamentally support this mission.
39:08I'm personally also concerned about a strategy of trying to exacerbate sectoral infighting inside Iran,
39:17sending Iranian Kurds in rather than trying to dislodge the regime through an air campaign.
39:26But I think we will know a lot more in the next five days.
39:30The next one week, very crucial.
39:33As always, Daniel Silverberg and Brigitte General Kupferwasser,
39:37such a treat talking to the two of you and getting your insights in the manner in which this conflict
39:42is spreading.
39:49News is coming in.
39:50Israeli Defense Forces claim they've targeted a senior official of the regime.
39:55And I'll come to that story in just a moment.
39:58But the story I'm coming to right now is massive escalation along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border.
40:04The Durand line is on fire.
40:06More than 1,500, 1,15,000 people have been displaced in Afghanistan due to the conflict.
40:12And there's a massive spike in tensions along the 2,600 kilometers of the AFPAC border.
40:18The firing has escalated to shelling and the use of artillery in several areas along the 2,600 kilometers.
40:26Afghanistan's Ministry of Defense in a statement said they've hit Pakistan Army's installations at multiple locations along the Durand line,
40:34destroying a large number of Pakistani force and shooting down a Pakistani drone just about an hour back.
40:41Pakistan hit back saying they've carried out both airstrikes and ground strikes against Afghan military targets,
40:49including inside Kandahar, targeting senior Taliban commanders.
40:53The fighting has been on for a week-plus.
40:56It's escalated.
40:57Despite multiple interventions by friendly countries to make sure that there's a ceasefire in place,
41:05Turkey, in fact, has offered to mediate, but Taliban insist they will avenge the killing of Afghans in the Pakistani
41:11airstrikes.
41:12Pakistani government spokesperson a short while back denied any negotiations are underway to end the current conflict,
41:19saying there is nothing to talk about with Afghanistan.
41:23There will be no dialogue.
41:25There are no negotiations.
41:27The UN mission in Afghanistan has said 56 civilians have been killed in the current conflict in recent days.
41:36Taliban government in Afghanistan says 110 unarmed civilians have been massacred by Pakistan,
41:42both in airstrikes and ground strikes.
41:45The current round of escalation between Pakistan and Afghanistan started on the 16th of February,
41:50when 11 security personnel and a child were killed in a suicide bomber,
41:55when he rammed his explosive-laden vehicle at a security checkpoint.
42:00And this happened in Bajor.
42:02The very next day, the Pakistan Air Force decided it will carry out airstrikes,
42:07and airstrikes were carried out both along the western and southeastern parts of Afghanistan,
42:13and this led to a massive spike in tensions.
42:17Pakistan has seen, and you must look at these numbers very carefully,
42:20Pakistan has seen a massive 34% spike in terrorism in 2025 compared to the previous year.
42:2834% spike.
42:29700 terror strikes recorded in Pakistan in 2025,
42:34leaving 1,000 dead and over 1,300 injured.
42:38According to Pakistan Security Report 2025, released by the Islamabad-based Pakistan Institute of Peace Studies,
42:47or PIPs, in Khaybar Pakhtunkhwa, a load of 40% rise in incidents actually illustrates the presence and power of
42:59groups
42:59like the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, now banned in Pakistan, but once nurtured by the Pakistani state,
43:08and of course, affiliates of the TTP.
43:12Khaybar Pakhtunkhwa experienced the highest number of incidents of TTP strikes on the Pakistani state,
43:19and symbols of the Pakistani state in 2025.
43:23Of the 700 attacks in 2025, 413 were in KPK alone.
43:28These violent incidents claimed of the 1,000 lives, 581 in KP, and about 698 injured in Pakistan.
43:39I quickly want to cut across to Pakistani journalist, Arzu Kazmi,
43:43who now joins me with the latest on this story.
43:46Arzu, what's the current situation along the AFPAC border?
43:51I believe there's massive escalation.
43:53Is no effort being made to bring down tensions?
43:57Exactly, Gaurav, I think you said the right thing that Pakistan government is not ready to talk to Afghan government
44:03or TTP leaders, because the attacks, as you know,
44:09that the attacks, as you know, are very bad, both sides are running.
44:12And, also, Pakistan's government and military establishment,
44:15those that are the ones that are running out of Pakistan,
44:19and the Pakistan media and influencers,
44:20which are the ones that are trying to build to create an impression,
44:25that Pakistan, who is doing it.
44:28So, people ask that if Pakistan's side of the Jihad,
44:32what's happening with Pakistan, then Afghanistan's side of the Jihad?
44:35What's happening with Jihad?
44:45now
45:15to on the other day so that you should not be in the way if you should not be in
45:20the
45:20way to when a sign of America.
45:24That is what if a loss was in Americaже for Pakistan and ensure that your Taliban would
45:30be in America, but many of them have been on this day and that's really how much
45:39the journalists have been saying so far.
45:41All of these things are made to the extent of the government, I understand that everything
45:48foreign
46:11We are being told that the Iran-Baluchistan border, that could also be on fire.
46:19We are being told that the Iran-Baluchistan and Pakistan-Baluchistan border, that could also be on fire.
46:30What can you tell us about this?
46:32Definitely, Baluchistan is a very sensitive area.
46:37We are being told that the Iran-Baluchistan border is a very sensitive area.
47:07We are being told that the Iran-Baluchistan border is a very sensitive area.
47:37We are being told that the Iran-Baluchistan border is a very sensitive area.
48:35And this has been told that the Iran-Baluchistan border is a very sensitive area.
48:40The first reaction from the Iranian government on the killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader, has been put
48:49out on social media.
48:51There's a post that's been put out that says the Zionist regime has made a big mistake.
48:57Its consequences will make the regime desperate by God's grace.
49:04West Asia war continues to escalate every day.
49:07Israel Defense Forces claim they've targeted senior members of the leadership of the regime in Tehran.
49:16Senior Iranian commanders are being targeted in Tehran.
49:21The Israeli security forces, the armed forces, they've carried out 15 waves, one after the other.
49:28Just a short while back, the 15th wave of missile strikes and airstrikes targeting infrastructure, symbols of power and the
49:40regime in Tehran and Isfahan.
49:44About 50 Israeli Air Force fighter jets, they've targeted Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's underground bunker in Tehran.
49:54Some information was that some leaders of the regime were still taking refuge in the bunker.
50:01White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett has said that the U.S. military is actually preparing to ensure commercial shipping
50:09can move safely through the region even as missiles and drones and aircraft are flying through the region.
50:18The main effort right now is to ensure sea lanes of communication and especially that very crucial choke point.
50:25The Strait of Hormuz is kept open.
50:29America initially indicated it may escort oil tankers.
50:34Additional security may be deployed in that area.
50:37Now, there is a massive rise in geopolitical tensions in this area.
50:43Now, a high-ranking member of the United States Senate Foreign Relations Committee has accused Russia of targeting Americans in
50:51West Asia and in Ukraine,
50:54criticizing what is being described as a relaxation of sanctions and warning that such a move could invite further aggression
51:02on the United States and American interests in the region.
51:07When you look at the ground situation, 28th of February, the decapitation strikes happened.
51:15But subsequently, if the United States hoped that it would be in a position to ensure that thousands of people
51:22or lakhs of people take to the streets against the regime and topple the regime, that clearly has not happened.
51:30And now it is being said these operations will not just continue but intensify and additional resources are being mobilized.
51:39The first indication that the United States and Israel are in this for the long haul.
51:45What will it lead to?
51:47We'll track that story very closely.
51:49That is all I have for you on India First this evening.
51:51Many thanks for watching.
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