00:28।
00:30at Brickwork Ratings. Hello Rajiv. Hi Shruti. How are you doing? How are you? Yeah I'm doing good. How? Considering
00:39the fact that you know the world is going into war and huge you know uncertainty, global uncertainty now that
00:46US and Iran
00:48is going into war. So far so good. Obviously a market reaction happened yesterday. But I have a question that
00:59our viewers would like to know. The very first question to you is this geopolitical uncertainty all over the world.
01:07What is the impact in India?
01:10Yeah, I think that's one of the most relevant question that is there in the mind of everyone, including me.
01:17And I have been tracking these developments since yesterday. I mean that's when it started like close to 24 hours.
01:26And so I mean whatever I can tell you is based on my views so far based on the developments
01:36in the last 24 hours.
01:38And I think this entire thing will have major impact through the crude oil prices because as we know India
01:51import nearly 90 percent of its crude oil needs. Right. Or us may say around 55 percent close to 55
02:00percent as of January this year was from Middle East countries.
02:04Of course. It's like in general it's more than 50 percent from the Middle East countries. So that means any
02:11escalation in the Middle East region raises the supply risk and pushes up the global oil prices.
02:16And given our 90 percent of our crude oil needs is made through imports. This is directly going to impact
02:24inflation current account balance. I mean given the recent trade deal with the U.S. we were estimating around 1
02:32.5 to 2 percent increase in the current account deficit.
02:35If that Trump administration announcement that India will buy 100 billion plus of energy from from the U.S. materialize.
02:46Now with this further increase in the pressure on the oil prices. I mean I think this pressure on current
02:52account deficit is going to widen even further.
02:55That means impact not only on the inflation but also on our exchange rates and further on the outlook of
03:03our GDP.
03:04Right.
03:06Right.
03:06Yeh toh ho gaya you know asset classes ka baat eya ya pher economy ka baat e. Agar hum if
03:11we look at this through a humanitarian angle.
03:15Do you Rajiv do you really think that this war will escalate? Or agar wou escalate hota hai usme kya
03:21kya factors jo hai wou wou wade garega?
03:27See I mean from a humanitarian angle well I mean I see this war more as a resolve rather than
03:38a restraint right we have seen immediately after this U.S. attack and both U.S. and Israel attack on
03:46Iran.
03:47Iran also started counter attack on the U.S. basis in other Middle East countries and also on Israel.
03:55So I mean from that perspective I think this is going to continue for at least another few weeks until
04:04and unless it becomes kind of unsustainable from a cost perspective for either side.
04:12I mean of course they are like huge domestic pressure on both the sides Iran leadership is facing internal protest
04:18economic strain.
04:23But as we know right I mean there has been some some of them I mean some of the major
04:29leaders in the Iran has already been assassinated as in the last 24 hours.
04:33And it's very difficult to kind of comment on when this will stop but then I think even from a
04:42humanitarian perspective I would expect this this war at least to continue for another few few weeks until unless I
04:51mean there are like intervention from the global forces from the neighboring countries the Gulf regions.
04:58And if there is like a sustained pressure on the oil prices and the supply on the energy supply and
05:07the countries like China India other Gulf countries including Russia intervenes to kind of force these two superpowers to negotiate.
05:18Absolutely.
05:20And if you see if oil does shoot up which it will it will have you know impact on inflation
05:27and the rupee will depreciate.
05:29So that's all of it.
05:31So that's all I mean we will talk about gold and silver prices.
05:35We will talk about gold and silver prices as you know as the safe heaven asset and gold prices have
05:41skyrocketed last year.
05:43This year we have just gotten a little bit of a chance that this war is going to have an
05:49impact on gold and silver.
05:51what is your view yeah see I mean as you already said gold prices have already skyrocketed in the
05:59last one year right so it continues to be a safe haven because it provides protection against
06:05inflation geoparticle tensions and this is what we are currently dealing with so in the near term
06:12we expect this further or a shift back towards the gold as a safe haven for both central banks
06:19and other investors but I see a limited scope there given prices are already at ultra high levels
06:28and the kind of appreciation that gold has seen in the last one year any further investment in gold
06:36from investment perspective I you see as a risk rather than safe haven right on top of that you
06:46don't I mean this is not something which you do like regular returns like other bonds and other
06:52assets right there and I think from a gold perspective there are there is again another
06:58factor which is the interest rate and the dollar dynamics in the US we know that you they are like
07:06expectations on the monetary policy side from the US that the interest rate is going to be at the higher
07:14level at least for this year and dollars are going to be stronger that means pressure on gold is high
07:22I
07:23mean the downward pressure on the code but there are two counter factors one is geopolitical tension
07:28which may push it the prices higher further and one is this monetary policy and strong dollar expectation
07:35which will pull it down but so combining these two I expect gold prices of course will shoot up in
07:42the near term over the next one to two weeks we will see the prices to go up but I
07:47don't think it's
07:48going to sustain there and once things starts looking to stabilize I think the gold prices will start
07:57correcting and the investor will start booking profits that's when the prices may go down again
08:03but I don't know when I mean that's very difficult to say absolutely no no I'm quite aligned because
08:09I think mr. Trump is not going to be very happy about you know if the interest rate is going
08:13to be
08:13high he has already said the things about Jerome Powell who's the current chairman and of the Federal
08:21Reserve and if the interest rate remains high then there's a possibility that you know things will
08:27again change in the near term before I let you go Rajiv the most important question our viewers want to
08:36know in terms of good returns viewers that market ka kya hoga kyunki nifty or sensex will definitely be
08:47impacted by this news is this already some kind of you know is it already priced in this kind of
08:53risk
08:58so I would say it's partly priced and this is not something like a Venezuela attack right I mean
09:05that was completely unexpected and even in that case we didn't see a stock market to react that fiercely
09:15despite this all these unexpected attack from the US side this was this has been kind of building up for
09:23last few weeks and I think this is something which have already been priced partly priced in into the
09:31market but stock market must react these are if I mean this is one of the forward-looking indicator
09:39that we keep a track of very closely and certainly over the next couple of weeks I see there will
09:47be
09:47some foreign portfolio outflows that will also lead to currency weakness and sector specific stress
09:56especially in all sensitive industries like transport and chemicals having said that India remains one of
10:05the fastest growing major economies in the world right and we know like I mean given the performance of
10:13India in the nine months of this fiscal year 2026 corporate earnings are projected to grow steadily in FY 26
10:22and
10:23accelerate further in FY 27 on the backdrop of all these trade deals and a strong macroeconomic outlook
10:30the GDP performance which have kind of consistently kind of have been above both consensus and RBI estimates in the
10:40last three quarters so all these majors are going to support the stock market in the medium term I'm gonna
10:49say medium
10:49term from a stock market perspective like maybe a month or two months time right so while you may see
10:58some immediate
11:00portfolio foreign portfolio outflow that may lead to a crash in the stock market or some decline in the stock
11:07prices I think it's not going to continue
11:09for long given the strong fundamentals and our domestic in the institutional investors have consistently absorbed these selling
11:18places even in the past and I think they will continue to help stabilize the markets in the in the
11:24near to medium term
11:25right yeah
11:26yeah
11:26yeah
11:30please speak to your financial advisor before investing and good returns
11:34hum as a news channel we do not advise to buy or sell any stocks um Rajivji thank you so
11:41much for joining us on the show today
11:44uh times are very crucial and it's very unprecedented and it's just too much uncertainty in the world in terms
11:51of everything
11:52uh be it politics you know um or wars or oil or stock market uh but we can just hope
12:00for the best right
12:01yeah no exactly and yeah thank you thank you Shruti for inviting me
12:06you
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