00:00It has been a stormy start to March. The numbers don't lie. Take a look at the severe weather reports
00:07during the first half of March. 185 reports of tornadoes, almost 1500 reports of wind, 330 reports of hail. Add
00:15it all up and you need a calculator. That's over 2000 severe weather reports. And history tells us that as
00:22we go through the second half of March, it only gets worse, especially for tornadoes.
00:26This is the tornado occurrence by day during the year. Note the sharp increase as we head into late March.
00:34And here's why. We see all the ingredients for severe weather. Warm, moist air coming in out of the Gulf,
00:39a plunging jet stream, strong storms tracking to the east, northeast. That's what touches off the severe weather. But the
00:47pattern late this week in the next week is not conducive for severe weather. You know why? Take a look
00:54at how the jet stream is.
00:55It's pretty far north and you have a northwesterly flow into the Gulf, keeping all of the moisture in the
01:02Gulf. In fact, when you look at future dew point temperatures, as we go through the end of this week,
01:07a lot of dry air.
01:08What you're looking for is that 60 degree dew point temperature. That's the threshold. That's in the green. You will
01:14note, however, as we get into Saturday and then Sunday, there is a surge northward.
01:19You see that. And with the front coming south, there is at least some threat for severe weather.
01:25It will not be an outbreak. We don't think there's going to be any tornadoes, just some gusty winds.
01:30But it's certainly going to be quieter than what we've seen for severe weather over the next 10 days.
01:37In fact, after Sunday, there won't be any threat for severe weather until late next week.
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