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00:12Welcome to the show. Now, throughout Iran, it has been difficult for residents to tell the
00:17difference between night and day this Sunday. Such has been the thick cloud of toxic smoke
00:22emanating from oil depots struck overnight by Israel and throughout into the day. Four oil
00:27storage tankers and a petroleum transfer have been struck, in fact, with several more deaths
00:31reported. Iran's Red Crescent Society says some 10,000 civilian structures have been damaged
00:37since fighting broke out last Saturday, with the idea of continuing two more waves of strikes today.
00:43Now, as we speak, clerics of Iran's assembly of experts say that they've reportedly reached a
00:47consensus on a successor to the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, though no name has yet been officially
00:53announced. A member of the 88-strong clerical body says the vote has been cast and a new leader
00:59chosen, with speculation mounting around Mushtaba Khamenei, the slain leader's son.
01:04U.S. President Donald Trump has waded into the succession debate, warning that Iran's next
01:08supreme leader will not last long without Washington's approval, also dismissing Mushtaba
01:13as an unacceptable choice the stance Tehran has rejected as interference in its internal affairs.
01:19Let's bring into the conversation H.A. Helya, Senior Fellow in Geopolitics, International Security
01:25and Middle East Studies in London. Thank you so much for joining us, Mr. Helya. In terms of the
01:31assembly of experts, no name has been given. How credible is the process, actually, to announce
01:39this new leader? Thank you very much for having me. Credible as any process can be that's taken
01:49under these conditions. The clerical body claims that it's already cast its votes. I think that
01:57they may be wary about announcing the outcome of that because, of course, whoever is chosen
02:03will immediately become a new target. Having said that, the protestations from the Trump
02:09administration may actually urge them to declare their chosen candidate. And frankly, the opposition
02:18of Mr. Trump to Mushtaba Khamenei is likely to work in his favor, not against him.
02:24Well, speak to me about Mushtaba. How reliable are these rumors to say that he is actually going
02:31to be the next man in charge and what would push the assembly to actually elect him? Is it a
02:37nepotistic thing or is it someone who can actually take up the reins of the Ayatollah, according to
02:42them, as the successful successor to his father? So, frankly, the fact that his father was the
02:53supreme leader doesn't help him as much as some people might think, because, indeed, it would
02:59be viewed as a type of nepotism in some quarters. On the other hand, Mushtaba Khamenei is known to
03:07have very good links with the IRGC. And the IRGC is really the strongest institution in Iran right
03:14now. Having said that, there are other candidates. So, it's difficult to say with certainty who's been
03:21chosen. But I think we'll all know the answer to that pretty soon, indeed.
03:25In this kind of event, I mean, there's no white smoke which emanates from the chimney there and
03:30the IRGC headquarters. It's a very clandestine operation. But you mentioned that it's not a
03:36unanimous vote. How unified do you think the selection process is right now?
03:46I'm afraid that's very difficult for someone like me to know and really for anybody to be able to say.
03:52Remember, this vote is taking place under conditions of war. So, the divisions that might
03:59have otherwise been leaked out during peacetime, that's very unlikely to be made clear at the
04:07present moment. There's likely to be a lot of misinformation and disinformation. And it'll be
04:12some time before we really understand what divisions do and do not exist and, indeed, who the candidate,
04:19the successful candidate actually is. But now these leaders are all meeting under the
04:25attacks that you've mentioned. And just, in fact, a week ago, it was where the Ayatollah himself was
04:32eliminated by Israel. And that was about 30 bombs dropped in one particular target, which obviously
04:37indicates that if you can say even Mossad or Israeli intelligence, they knew absolutely
04:43where the Ayatollah was stationed. Does this lead to some kind of a distrust amongst the
04:49leadership of the Iranian regime? I mean, if they're looking over their shoulders saying that
04:54Israel could know our whereabouts and someone inside here may have leaked it to them, what is the
05:00atmosphere like amongst Iran's IRGC commanders at this very present moment in time?
05:07So one can only really speculate because, of course, one would have to be there and be a part of
05:12that
05:12circle. But I think what you've seen, not just over the past few weeks and not even the past few
05:17months, but over the last few years, is that clearly Tehran and the Iranian regime is riddled with leaks,
05:25is riddled with informants. Mossad had very good intel when it came to deciding where to strike.
05:34Again, not simply on this occasion, but in last year's July war as well. So I think that that's
05:42something that the Iranian regime has yet to reckon with. And I think it will be something that has
05:49caused a lot of consternation in the ranks of even supporters of the Iranian regime that they weren't
05:54able to guard against this sort of infiltration. Hey, Jahelia, thank you so much for those analytical
06:01points. They're very fascinating. And of course, we are expecting the announcement of the new
06:06Ayatollah to be dropped any moment now. They have been deliberating throughout the day, but they do say
06:11at least the assembly of experts, the leadership body, that someone has been chosen. Thank you once
06:17again, H.A. Helia. Let's just move over to some news coming from Israeli state media.
06:24They say that Hezbollah is shifting tactics along Israel's northern border. Military sources from the IDF
06:29adding that the group is trying to force a renewed evacuation of northern communities targeting
06:34population centers near the front line, also stepping up attacks on Israeli positions in
06:39southern Lebanon. Officials say Hezbollah is also waging a psychological campaign distributing
06:43evacuation notices to residents in towns like Kiryat Shmona and Nahariya. Israel says for now,
06:49though, it has no plans to evacuate civilians. And that was confirmed by our correspondent in
06:53Jerusalem, Nogatana Polsky.
06:59There are no evacuation orders right now, but you're touching on a matter of growing controversy
07:07inside Israel, because it's clear that not 100 percent of the projectiles launched by Hezbollah from
07:16Lebanon, which include drones and missiles, are going to be caught by the army. And the army,
07:23however good its air defense is, and it's one of the best, said today overtly that they will not be
07:30able to catch all of the drones launched by Hezbollah. And so what we're starting to see in Israel is
07:37serious complaints by residents of the north who feel that they're being neglected by the government,
07:44and also the beginning of demands by regional council heads and mayors up in northern Israel
07:53saying we need a plan. There are also financial demands, of course, because Israel yesterday announced
08:00that the market would reopen. In other words, anyone who works someplace that has a bomb shelter
08:07should return to work. But schools are still closed and will be closed for this whole week. So it's
08:13very difficult for people to return to work. And in the north, they simply cannot return to work,
08:19and they're demanding to receive unemployment benefits. So we're seeing something begin to churn.
08:26But for the government, it is incredibly important not to declare the north an evacuation zone,
08:32not to have to admit that it cannot guarantee the safety of those residents who returned to the north
08:41after evacuating and abandoning their homes and their communities for the better part of a year,
08:47or a little more than a year, some of whom still don't have their original homes rebuilt.
08:52So it's a bit of political friction that we're talking about inside the country.
08:56And this is all taking place there on the northern border with Lebanon. Now, speaking of what's
09:02happened there in the south of the country today, Israel now says that it has killed five people in
09:10that blast at the Rabana Hotel in the south of Lebanon today in southern Beirut. And this was quite
09:16a major strike because it was really in the heart of the capital of Lebanon. Lebanon first announced that
09:23four people had been killed. Now Israel's saying that five of them were killed and three of those
09:27were Iranian commanders. What information do we have?
09:33What Israel says, it's kind of interesting. What Israel says is that this was a precise strike on a
09:40single room in this hotel in Beirut where many displaced Lebanese have found refuge. And what Israel's
09:49claiming is that these five officers, Lebanese and Iranian, connected to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard
09:57Corps, this notorious branch of the armed forces in Iran, were meeting there to plan terror attacks,
10:06and that the Israeli army had intel about this meeting and managed to eliminate them.
10:12We haven't heard reports, or I haven't found reports yet, either in Israel or in Lebanon,
10:19of there being additional victims, additional deaths caused by this strike. So if that is the case,
10:26it would be not the first time that Israel has displayed really extraordinarily precise intel
10:33about the goings-on of Iranian-linked leaders within Lebanon.
10:39Now we're going to return to Iran because we have some breaking news from their state media. They have
10:44announced their new Ayatollah. It comes after a week of deliberation from the Assembly of Experts,
10:50but they have chosen Mushtaba Khamenei, the son of the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, to head the Islamic
10:56Republic. He's backed by the Revolutionary Guard, and he is expected to continue his father's hardline
11:02policies at a time when the country is at war. Caroline Baum tells us more about the man taking the
11:07reins of the regime.
11:10Iran has a new supreme leader, and his name is Mushtaba Khamenei. Elected by Iran's Assembly of Experts,
11:18and with the staunch support of the country's Revolutionary Guard, the 56-year-old cleric has
11:22now been thrust into power. Succeeding his father, the late supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei,
11:29who was killed in U.S.-Israeli air strikes on February 28th.
11:34Mushtaba Khamenei is a mysterious figure in the politics of the Iranian theocracy. Though as the
11:39second son of Ali Khamenei, he is widely known, he has never held public office and has rarely spoken
11:45publicly. Many Iranians have never heard his voice. And it's interesting because he never held an
11:51official role, by the way, throughout it all. So it could be that he has been playing behind the scenes,
11:57he could be seen as a form of continuation, until they can settle their way through.
12:03While his appointment is likely to be welcomed by supporters of the Iranian regime,
12:07he is poised to face backlash both domestically and internationally. Khamenei is widely viewed as
12:14a hardline cleric, opposing cooperation with the West and refusing restrictions to Iran's nuclear program.
12:20He is also seen as a continuation of a regime that has killed thousands of protesters in recent months.
12:27Khamenei has not been seen in public since the death of his parents and wife in the U.S.-Israeli
12:32strikes. As supreme leader, he is now a top target for the U.S. and Israel.
12:38U.S. President Donald Trump said earlier this month that he was opposed to Khamenei's appointment to
12:43the Post, calling him a lightweight.
12:46Israel has opposed the election of a new supreme leader altogether,
12:50going as far as bombing a building where the assembly of experts was set to meet during their
12:55deliberations.
12:58So let's get the thoughts once again of Hisham A. Hale, a senior fellow in geopolitics,
13:02international security and Middle East studies in London. Thanks so much for joining us again,
13:07Professor, because the news just moves so rapidly at this time.
13:12Moshtaba has been named as the next Ayatollah. It doesn't come as a surprise, though.
13:20No, it doesn't. And I think that, frankly, I wouldn't be surprised if Donald Trump's protestations
13:27really put his thumb on the scales when it came to this. There were other candidates that could have
13:32been elected more senior than Moshtaba. Moshtaba is not the most senior in terms of his ranking within
13:42the Shia hierarchical religious authority, much like one has to say his father when he was first appointed
13:51back in the 80s after the death of Ayatollah Khomeini. But I think that in the time of war,
13:59you're going to get people rallying behind the figure that they think is going to lead them to victory.
14:06In this case, from the perspective of the Iranian regime. And Moshtaba Khamenei was known to be
14:15close to the IRGC. He served in the IRGC. And I think all of these factors put together
14:22made him the successful candidate. How long he will stay as such in office is another question entirely.
14:28I'm just curious. I know you obviously can't tap into the mind of his late father and the way that
14:33he was thinking. Do you estimate that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would have actually chosen his son as
14:40the next clerical successor? I have no idea. I appreciate that you said that I can't look into
14:47his mind, but I really have no idea. The reality is that I don't think that anybody would have been
14:54expecting this war even a couple of years ago. We do know that the former supreme leader
15:04did make plans for his succession. We don't know what those plans were. We don't know if he actually
15:10recommended his son for the position or not, or if he would have thought that that was something he
15:15shouldn't do. I think that it'll be quite some time before we have insights into the process that
15:22actually led to this taking place. But this is all taking place in a republic,
15:27and this is the most senior clerical position. What kind of a response do you imagine from hardliners,
15:34at least the Islamic hardliners, to this kind of appointment?
15:41I suspect they're going to be less concerned about accusations around nepotism and more concerned around
15:48who they think is going to be able to effectively exert command and control in a way that they
15:55prefer, right? So if he's close to the IRGC and the IRGC is increasing in power, especially against the
16:04backdrop of war, then it may well be that Mushtama Khamenei is precisely who they'd want. Because,
16:11again, he was known to be close to the IRGC and may not want to pull them in or rein
16:17them in at all.
16:18I think that we'll see that over the coming days. We've already seen that the other institutions of
16:24power within Iran have not been particularly successful in steering the country in another
16:30direction. The Iranian president gave some sort of de-escalatory hint over the last 24,
16:3848 hours. But that was quickly sort of swept to one side, where he indicated that Iran's neighbors
16:45should not have been targeted, that he apologized. And then he gave another message where it effectively
16:51made that completely meaningless. And of course, the strikes have continued on Gulf neighbors over
16:57the last day or so. So it may well be that this is just a confirmation of where power really
17:04lies
17:04within Iran at present. And the strongest institution, I think by far at this stage, is the IRGC.
17:11And there have been some suggestions that Mushtaba was already very much at the heart of decision-making.
17:19So we pretty much expect the strategy to continue as it has done in the past week.
17:26Yes, I don't expect there to be any change over the next week or so. I think that right now,
17:34the Iranian
17:34regime is locked into a certain pattern. And that pattern is all about trying to make the cost of the
17:42US-Israeli war on Iran as expensive as possible. They can't beat the US, they can't beat the Israelis,
17:50but they can make this more or less costly. And I think that that's the attempt right now,
17:57to make sure that everybody realizes that if you go to war against Iran, that the cost of it,
18:01the price of it is going to be so high. As yet, they haven't shown that. But I think that
18:07that's
18:07the strategy. And in terms of the actual movements of Mushtaba now, his father was eliminated
18:15after a strategic operation by the Israelis assassinated. In terms of the
18:25actual strategy now to hide Mushtaba or make him not a target, because he definitely has now a target
18:31on his back much bigger than it was previously. What do you imagine the IRGC is going to be doing
18:37now?
18:39I think they will keep him out of sight for as long as possible. But of course, the question remains,
18:47what are they going to do in the medium to long term when it comes to that? He's going to
18:52need to
18:52show a presence in order to reassure supporters within the Iranian regime that he can actually do
19:00this job. But again, the situation right now, I think, is pretty existential for the Iranian regime.
19:08There's very serious talk around not simply regime change, but the fragmentation of the country.
19:15And I think that Tel Aviv is very keen on regime change. Washington DC seems to be going back and
19:23forth about it. But I think it's quite existential for them. And their strategy thus far has really
19:29alienated even those that were neutral within the Gulf vis-a-vis the war in Iran. They felt that even
19:38staying out of this and even trying to make clear to the Iranians that they would refuse to have US
19:45and Israeli strikes take place from their shores on Iran, that didn't save them, that didn't protect
19:50them, that didn't halt Iranian strikes on Gulf countries. So I think that the Iranian regime is
19:56going to be in a much more isolated position than probably it's ever been before.
20:01And then in terms of actually reaching out to those Gulf countries, we heard those conciliatory
20:05remarks from Masoud Pezeshki on the president of Iran yesterday. He's almost backtracked on that today,
20:12just saying that if we are bullied, we are going to be responding in kind. How do you expect now
20:17that
20:17they have a leader at the helm in terms of Mushtaba Khomeini? They're going to be reacting,
20:23is it just, again, going to be the same kind of foreign policy?
20:28I really don't see any change that's going to take place over the coming days. I don't think
20:35that really has to do with whether or not they elect a new supreme leader. I think it's got all
20:40to do with how the IRGC interprets the situation and whether or not the United States signals wanting
20:48to take an off-ramp for de-escalation. Right now, I don't see any hint in the latter.
20:55Thank you so much, Hisham. We're just going to get some more insight with Neger Mozzavari,
21:02who joins us from the United States as an Iranian-American political commentator and journalist.
21:08Neger, thank you so much for joining us. In terms of your reaction, just what is your first thought and
21:15your first emotion when you see that Mushtaba has been appointed? Not really a surprise.
21:23Thank you for having me. I'm still waiting for that official announcement, but this came to
21:31the surprise of some because the hinting from his father, the supreme leader that was just assassinated,
21:37was that he wasn't a desired candidate because he didn't want to have this perception of essentially
21:47a replication of a monarchy where power is transferred from father to son, which was something
21:54that essentially the Islamic Republic had ended, supposedly, millennia of monarchy in Iran.
22:00But I think these are different circumstances. The way his father was killed, the fact that Iran is
22:08in wartime and his son Mushtaba is essentially very close or favored by the military and security
22:16establishment. So this in itself can be an indication that those institutions, those very powerful
22:22institutions, the Revolutionary Guards, the military and with economic power and security intelligence,
22:31are consolidating power as many Iran analysts had predicted. So this could essentially be an Iran
22:40emerging out of this war, potentially even more hard line than it was before the assassination of
22:48his father, at least in the short term. And just if we don't want to conflate the religious aspect with
22:55the political, I do want to ask, will those people who look to the Ayatollah as some kind of a
23:03figurehead
23:03for the religion in the country, what will they be thinking?
23:09Well, his son certainly doesn't have that level of following or religiosity as the father or
23:17the previous Supreme Leader, the first one, who was also the leader of the revolution. He also
23:22hasn't really had a front line and public presence when it comes to the politics of the country. I mean,
23:35was the leader of the Iranian Revolution. So they came from both a religious leadership and following
23:42and stature, but also very visible political profiles or courier. So this is essentially a man
23:50coming out of a semi-shadow will definitely be overshadowed by the name of his father, although
23:57he carries that name. And again, it will be, this will be the culmination of the consolidation of power
24:05of those very powerful institutions. Again, this wasn't a one-man show, the Iranian regime. It's a,
24:10obviously it's a nation state with very powerful institutions. And some of those institutions are
24:15right now engaged very directly front and center in this war, in the retaliation against the US.
24:21And they will come out of this potentially even more powerful.
24:24Now, just before this announcement was made, Donald Trump, he had been speaking about Mashtaba,
24:30saying that he really didn't want him because it would basically be a bad choice. That was Trump's words.
24:37I just wanted to take this to Hisham. How do you think Washington is going to be
24:43doing anything to prevent the succession taking place? Or are they just going to be
24:47continuing with their attacks as per the last week?
24:53Well, as we mentioned earlier, the Iranian regime is riddled with leaks. There are infiltrators
25:00that have provided targeting information. And we've seen evidence of that, not simply over the last
25:06few weeks, but frankly years. So I think that they will be trying to carry out another assassination.
25:14But the reality is that this doesn't really change the direction of travel in terms of how DC
25:22has been approaching this war with Israel. The US-Israeli war on Iran has been going on now for more
25:31than a
25:31week. It doesn't see any sign of reducing in tempo or de-escalation on the country. The
25:39discourse and the rhetoric shows that they're not looking for an off-ramp. And I don't think this
25:44changes anything. Negar, in terms of any kind of future diplomatic negotiations,
25:52do you think that this changes anything there as well? I mean, it seems like we want to be able
25:57to separate the regime and the Ayatollah from what happens in terms of international discussions,
26:03but it's almost too difficult to do.
26:09Although I will say that the Iranian system has shown pragmatism and realism in the past to be
26:15able to compartmentalize and even do the most difficult negotiations, for example, during the 1980s
26:21war with Iraq, which eventually led to the ceasefire with Saddam or with nuclear negotiations with the
26:27United States on their President Obama or now with President Trump twice. And so I don't think the path
26:34to diplomacy, the door to diplomacy is fully closed. The Iranians are actually signaling that that is
26:40still their preferred method. And also the conclusion of this war, whenever there is in short term,
26:45medium or long term, will have to come from mediation and negotiations essentially for a ceasefire,
26:51as it did in June. But I think right now the most, you know, the key issue is that the
26:56Iranians are not
26:57ready for a ceasefire, as they're signaling, because they think that if they don't inflict enough pain,
27:04which they don't think they have, to the other side, that this will happen to them again. And every time
27:08this war ends with a ceasefire, until the next time it potentially starts, they will continue to pay a price
27:15under the shadow and threat of that war, as they did from June, the ceasefire, until the moment
27:20this war started. And so they want to fight with whatever they have, shoot whatever they have,
27:26take a very serious hit as well. I mean, this is an existential or survival battle for them. But then
27:32the goal is to inflict enough pain and to spread that pain beyond their borders to make sure that this
27:39doesn't happen again. And they don't turn into, for example, the next Lebanon, where Israel and the
27:44U.S. can just keep coming in every six months, every year, to mow the grass.
27:48It's all a question of how much power they've managed to consolidate, it feels like, Negar.
27:54Hisham Helia, what do you think Iran will be thinking about their next move in terms of the Gulf? Because
28:02in terms of now having a leader to unify under, does this also change the power dynamic?
28:12I don't think it does. I think that the strategy of the Iranian regime with regards to the Gulf
28:17has frankly been counterproductive to the regime. In the run-up to this war, pretty much every Gulf
28:25country made it very clear to Washington and to the Iranians that they didn't want to be a part of
28:29this. They would not allow American-Israeli strikes to take place using their own territories.
28:37They didn't just say we're staying out of this, they lobbied very hard against it.
28:42And if there is another war, if the ceasefire takes place tomorrow, a week or a month from now,
28:49and the regime is still in place, then I think Negar is right. I think that they perceive that there
28:54will
28:54be another set of strikes against the regime in the future. And at that particular point,
29:01I don't think that they're going to be able to count on the Gulf staying out of it, because what
29:06they've shown the Gulf is that even if they have active neutrality, even opposition to a war taking
29:14place, they still will not be protected from attacks from Iran on their territory. And they may feel that
29:22the lesser of two evils in this regard is going to be to align with the United States in order
29:28to
29:28simply to protect their own territory. So it's really not a very good situation for the Iranian regime
29:33at all.
29:34A fascinating take there. Let's just see what happens there in terms of whether it is good or not.
29:42But Hisham Helya, thank you. We're going to have to let you go. I know that it is all just
29:47mounting in
29:47terms of the news there. That was H.A. Helya, Senior Fellow in Geopolitics,
29:51International Security and Middle East Studies in London.
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