00:00The United States' NATO and European allies were left out of the loop on its impending attacks on Iran.
00:06But nearly a week into the war, they're increasingly getting involved,
00:09with several European countries sending military assets to Greek-administered Cyprus,
00:14where an Iranian drone hit a British base earlier this week.
00:17Britain and France have also both deployed fighter jets to Gulf countries,
00:21and France's Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier is headed to the Mediterranean,
00:25where it's due to arrive this weekend.
00:27For some analysis, we can bring in James J. Townsend, Jr.,
00:31a senior advisor at the Atlantic Council's Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security,
00:37a transatlantic security initiative.
00:40Thank you so much for joining us this morning.
00:43It's great to be here. Thank you.
00:45Now, EU countries say they are in a purely defensive position.
00:49France's army minister was on television last night insisting France is not at war.
00:54Would you agree with that, or would you consider them a part of this war at this point?
01:00Well, I think the pilots in the cockpits and the sailors on those ships,
01:04they might feel they're at war.
01:07It's very up close and personal, of course, for them.
01:09But in terms of the intent of the countries that are now rather reluctantly having to go in and protect
01:18nationals who are there,
01:21French tourists or business people that might be somewhere in the Middle East,
01:25this is not something that they set out to want to do to take part in what the Israelis and
01:33the Americans are doing.
01:34But it's something they feel they need to do to show that they're able to protect their own people and
01:39their interests.
01:40And why are they doing that?
01:42I mean, are European countries acting at this point sort of more out of a duty to their own citizens
01:47and to their Gulf allies than to the U.S.?
01:51I think that's right.
01:53And it's different from in the past, where a lot of times when allies would support U.S. operations in
01:58the Middle East,
01:59a lot of it was out of loyalty, if you will, or supporting the United States.
02:04And they were brought along in a process before the U.S. took action,
02:08where allies are able to express their support because the Americans have explained it
02:13and they've gone for maybe some authorization from the U.N. or something along those lines.
02:19But this time around, I think it's not so much out of loyalty as it is that because the war
02:25has spread throughout the Middle East,
02:28there are a lot of national interests there, there's European interests there,
02:32and most importantly, there's people from Europe stranded there that need help and want to feel that they are being
02:39protected,
02:39as well as the regional countries who do have relationships with the U.K. or France,
02:45who are looking to both of those countries to provide support to them as well,
02:50to knock out these missiles or drone attacks so that their hotels and their airports aren't being bombed.
02:57So there's an expectation there as well for France and U.K. allies to be protected.
03:03Spain's socialist prime minister, Pedro Sanchez, has taken the strongest position of any European country against the war,
03:09refusing to let the U.S. use Spanish bases.
03:12Can you talk about the case of Spain and what's motivating that opposition?
03:19Well, I think certainly there's the view of the Spanish leadership that this is a war that they don't want
03:27to have their fingerprints on.
03:28And I don't think you can discard that, that their own views of this war, its legality,
03:35and whether this is something good for the Spanish people to be involved in.
03:39But I'm certain there's also politics in Madrid.
03:42And there's also the, you know, this just the view that Europe may have of Spain or the or Spanish
03:52interests that are not as at risk as other nations might be.
03:57That certainly has a role to play in this as well.
03:59So I'm sure it's complicated.
04:01But it's one that has certainly gotten the attention of President Trump.
04:05And as you're saying, you know, European countries don't really want to be involved in the conflict at this point.
04:10They feel sort of like that they have to to protect their citizens.
04:13Is there anything, though, that could make them enter the war in a more active way?
04:17And what might that be?
04:20Well, I mean, that's a good question.
04:22I don't see them becoming more involved.
04:26In other words, joining up with the United States and Israel and bombing Tehran.
04:30I think they are in a defensive mindset.
04:33They don't necessarily have the capabilities to take part in a broader war like this.
04:38I think they've got their hands full just taking care of their national interests, whether it's Cyprus or some of
04:46the Gulf nations, as well as getting their people out.
04:49I think that is something where over and above that kind of defensive posture.
04:57I think that's not going to be really expected, you know, in terms of Israel or the U.S.
05:03I don't think we're looking for that kind of support.
05:06Is there a danger, though, that, you know, once once you have European aircraft up in the air, you have
05:12European ships around?
05:13I mean, is there a danger that they could get struck and sort of dragged further into it?
05:19Well, you're right about that.
05:21They certainly are in harm's way and can be hit or can incur casualties.
05:28That could certainly happen.
05:29But I don't think necessarily that will spring them into the war in an offensive way.
05:35I think this is this is still something where the European nations are in a defensive crouch and are doing
05:42their best to to try to, you know, not just protect their own interests and their own people, but try
05:48to find a way out to get a de-escalation going, to get some type of diplomacy going, to find
05:54an off ramp.
05:55As they say, I don't think the European nations at all like what is happening.
05:59I think they want to see much more of a de-escalation.
06:03They're not in the driver's seat.
06:04They know that.
06:05So there is that kind of work, I'm sure, going on behind the scenes.
06:09And just very, very briefly, because we are running out of time.
06:11Does the EU have any leverage to to create that de-escalation?
06:19You know, they they have leverage because I think the U.S. is finding that this war is not quite
06:26turning out the way they thought it was in terms of what's happening in the Gulf, how long this might
06:32take to happen, the impacts on the energy situation in terms of gasoline prices at home.
06:39There's a lot of of of consequences that come from a war like this, particularly in the Middle East.
06:45So I think right now there's some leverage in a sense that if European nations can come to Washington and
06:52say, look, how about this as a as a way out?
06:55Or, you know, there's something that they might be able to do in the diplomatic area to take some of
06:59the pressure off.
07:01But, you know, that I think right now the U.S. is realizing it needs friends, it needs allies, and
07:07maybe it needs a helping hand to try to de-escalate things.
07:10All right, James J. Townsend, Jr., thank you again so much for your analysis this morning.
07:14We'll have to leave it there.
07:15That was James J. Townsend, Jr. of the Atlantic Council giving us his analysis.
07:20We'll have to take a short break.
07:21Stay with us, if you can, on France 24.
07:22More news coming up in just a moment.
07:27We'll have to take a short break.
Comments