00:00On Wednesday, the European Union called on Israel to halt its campaign in Lebanon and Iran.
00:06And EU leaders are meeting today to further evaluate the situation in the Middle East.
00:11Well, we're going to talk more about Europe's role in the Iran war now with Stephen Everts,
00:15director of the European Union Institute for Security Studies.
00:19Stephen, thanks for taking the time to speak to us.
00:21Europe obviously relies heavily on energy exports, and it's really exposed to spiraling prices,
00:26particularly since the Strait of Hormuz was closed.
00:28It was just, first of all, set the scene for us.
00:30How bad is the situation in Europe now?
00:34Look, this is not Europe's war.
00:36We didn't ask for this war.
00:37We were not consulted on it.
00:39But it is our problem, right?
00:41Because a war that is sort of spiraling out of control, as your reports indicate,
00:47wider regional ramifications, Lebanon, attacks on energy installations across the region.
00:54This is pretty serious, right?
00:56Europeans are affected in multiple ways.
00:58One of them is the one that you mentioned just now.
01:01It's the most immediate, the most obvious, perhaps.
01:03Oil price is above $100.
01:05Price for gas doubled roughly in the last week or so.
01:11This is hurting Europeans, as it's hurting other people around the world as well.
01:16Let's not forget about that.
01:17But we have a strong interest to contribute as much as we can to the path of de-escalation.
01:24We want this war to end as soon as possible.
01:27And we want to work with people around the region, first of all, but also further afield that, like us,
01:32want to bring this war to an end.
01:34So you mentioned this de-escalation, the EU obviously calling for that.
01:38It doesn't seem, though, like anyone's listening at this point.
01:42At the moment, we're in a logic of war, of action and reaction, of retaliation.
01:46And that's, yeah, that's true.
01:50At the same time, you also reported about meetings of Gulf leaders.
01:55It's notable that the European Union has reached out very much to them as well in the past to see
02:00if we can partner with them.
02:03India, Japan, other Asian countries are also, like us, affected by a war that they didn't choose.
02:10And I think that many, many European leaders are trying to push very much in that direction.
02:15We'll see what's going to happen later today, coming out of the summit meeting in Brussels,
02:19if we can put some flesh on the bone of the diplomatic push that now needs to happen with others.
02:26What about on the flip side?
02:28What now could draw Europe further into this war?
02:35Well, there is a risk, but I think people are quite alert to it,
02:39that, let's say, when individual European countries move military assets, say, closer to the region,
02:44France is one, the Netherlands, others are doing so too.
02:49There is potentially a risk that if we're not careful,
02:52that perhaps efforts to reopen the Strait of Ramoves and to ensure freedom of navigation,
02:59which is also a European interest,
03:01that this get mixed up with the conduct of the war,
03:05that we are seen potentially as participating in a sort of subcontracting role or whatever you want to call it,
03:14that we get sort of sucked into being associated with an offensive set of operations.
03:21And I think that's something that we have to be very careful to avoid.
03:24I think people are alert to this,
03:26and European leaders have spoken about this risk in recent days,
03:29but it is important that we hold to that.
03:31Indeed, because Donald Trump, the U.S. president, has been asking for help from Europe,
03:35particularly when it comes to the Strait of Hormuz.
03:37Europe has so far been resistant.
03:39Will it stay resistant?
03:41Can it stay resistant to the power of the U.S.?
03:45I think people are quite clear about that.
03:48I mean, we didn't start this war together with the United States and Israel.
03:52Some of the consequences that we now see unfold,
03:55including the closure of the Strait of Hormuz,
03:57were predictable and predicted.
04:00So I think the Europeans are quite clear that that's the thing to avoid.
04:05At the same time, it's true that Europe is affected by, let's say,
04:10a longer-term closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
04:12And we have an interest of finding, as I said earlier,
04:15an end to the war, a de-escalate cessation of violence.
04:18And then in a subsequent phase, after that,
04:22perhaps Europeans with Asians, with Gulf countries and others,
04:26can look at ways to work on maritime security,
04:30work on freedom of navigation.
04:31This has happened in the past.
04:33There have been previous instances in history
04:35where Europeans and others have escorted vessels.
04:38But that was in a post-war circumstance,
04:42not in the middle of the war,
04:44in which you get mixed up and that will be ill-advised.
04:46Well, just to wrap up,
04:47do you think in some way this could represent an opportunity for Europe?
04:51Could there be some kind of shift in the power balance with the U.S.?
04:57I'm not sure about that because, I mean,
04:59overwhelmingly this war has negative consequences.
05:02Energy, regional stability.
05:04Also, for instance, it's a giant gift to Mr. Putin
05:08because there's more money coming his way.
05:10Some U.S. sanctions on Russia.
05:12Oil experts have been lifted.
05:15Air defense assets are diverted from Ukraine
05:18where they're really, really needed.
05:20So I think Europeans really see this war as a diversion,
05:24as an unnecessary war.
05:28The sooner it comes to an end, the better it is.
05:31Stephen, thank you for that.
05:32That's Stephen Everts.
05:33Thank you so much for taking the time to speak to us.
05:36Pleasure.
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